2025-2026 ENSO

[FPizz]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everything warrants a "PREPARE NOW" headline....it's truly nauseating.  I've been reading that crap every week from November through March and have been averaging like half of my average seasonal snowfall each year.

Sounds like the end of the world people that go over the top with Global Warming as well that we read a new headline daily about how we are all going to die.  It goes both ways.  Both do equal damage.  It would be nice to come into this thread without the crappy forecasters being posted in here and also the end of the world crap not being posted in here.  By posting here you all are boosting them, lol. If you have a problem, ignore them or reply to them in their youtube or X comments.  We don't need the crap in here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Sounds like the end of the world people that go over the top with Global Warming as well that we read a new headline daily about how we are all going to die.  It goes both ways.  Both do equal damage.  It would be nice to come into this thread without the crappy forecasters being posted in here and also the end of the world crap not being posted in here.  By posting here you all are boosting them, lol. If you have a problem, ignore them or reply to them in their youtube or X comments.  We don't need the crap in here.

I see far more hyped winter videos than I do CC propaganda online.

[kazimirkai]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The latest MJO forecast is a mix with GEFS not looking as good but the Euro still looking good:

11/14 GEFS further right with it hung up in middle of 6 rather than 6/7 border:

But Euro is still all systems go to 7/8:

11/14 Euro ~same as yesterday with progression into 7:

 

11/13 extended Euro (they run a day later) continues to look very nice with it again getting to the often cold in the E US phase 8 mid-Dec (can’t ask for better for then):

 

And yesterday’s extended GEFS also heads to phase 8 mid-Dec:

That's an improvement on the euro since yesterday, OLR mins closer to the dateline and all. Here's a semblance of what that transition might look like. Pretty hard to get those strong westerlies in the phase 8 map with la niña easterlies so we'll see how they contend. Id be surprised if the MJO stayes in 8 for long but we'll see if there's some constructive interference with easterly eq. rossby to prolong convection in the region a bit. That would be best cast scenario

[GaWx]

 The 12/13 extended GEFS/EPS are both headed for phase 8 mid-Dec. For those wondering how often E US cold has been associated with phase 8 in Dec (whether well outside, just outside, near, or inside the circle), here’s the breakdown of 3+ day long phase 8 periods in Baltimore as a representative (centrally located) E US city:

 

For 3+ day long phase 8 (includes inside circle): 23 periods (* La Niña)

12/20-22/1974: +1*

12/19-31/1975: -4*

12/14-17/1976: -2

12/10-15/1977: -6

12/16-18/1979: -5

12/26-28/1981: -2

12/8-10/1982: -6

12/19-23/1986: -3

12/2-6/1988: +1*

12/1-4/1989: -9

12/9-18/1989: -16

12/2-4/1990: +6

12/1-7/1991: +1

12/9-14/1991: +8

12/9-12/1992: 0

12/20-25/1995: -8*

12/15-17/2000: 0*

12/21-25/2001: -1

12/5-9/2002: -15

12/1-3/2007: -4*

12/6-9/2009: -4

12/20-22/2009: -7

12/21-24/2017: +5*

———

 Before analyzing the temperatures, note how the frequency of 3+ day long Dec phase 8 periods has plunged since 2009:

-During 1974-2009, there were 22 three+ day long phase 8s through the 36 Decs or a frequency of 0.61/Dec.

-But during 2010-2024, there was only ONE 3+ day long period or a mere 0.07/Dec, which is a minuscule 1/9 as often as that for 1974-2008!

-The longest drought during 1974-2009 was a mere 4 Decs. But during 2010-24, there have been two 7 Dec droughts!@bluewave

-So, based on this, although I’m hoping the latest extended EPS/GEFS are correct in projecting a 3++ day long phase 8 this Dec, I’m taking it with a grain for now.

——————

 Now to analyze the Baltimore temps for the 23 three+ day Dec phase 8 periods 1974-2024:

-# of periods: MB 4 (17%), B 10 (43%), NN 6 (26%), A 2 (9%), MA 1 (4%)

 -So, there have been nearly 5 times as many B/MB periods as A/MA periods!

-The average daily anomaly was -4 over the 112 days.

 
@donsutherland1

[MJO812]

Mike Masco

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mike Masco

An “energized southern branch” (STJ) in a La Niña with a -PMM? Huh?

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

An “energized southern branch” (STJ) in a La Niña with a -PMM? Huh?

Yea thats a little weird.

[SnowGoose69]

The good news is that GEFS/GEPS have kind of been destroying the EPS the last 4-6 winters for the most part with the post D10 evolutions involving the pattern due to them seeming to handle PAC issues better.  Both of those show markedly faster transitions for those in the E in late Nov than the EPS which is going much more -PNA and SE ridge.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Mike Masco

That to me looks like a pattern more conducive to overrunning, as any major phasing attempt(s) is/are likely to be sheared out by a compressed field.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That to me looks like a pattern more conducive to overrunning, as any major phasing attempt(s) is/are likely to be sheared out by a compressed field.

Definitely with an negative epo pattern