2025-2026 ENSO

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Not earth shattering. I don’t think anyone here expected a severely negative PDO going into winter. Everyone I’ve seen has been expecting a rise from the severely negative levels. The only unrealistic expectations I’ve seen have been on Twitter….we had some twitterologists back in the spring expecting that we would be in an El Niño/+PDO with a “grand solar minimum” right now….

Sorry. I'll wait for something earth shattering before I post. Can your attitude get any worse? I was just updating the numbers.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Sorry. I'll wait for something earth shattering before I post. Can your attitude get any worse? I was just updating the numbers.

Apprently all 5,323 -IOD graphics were earth shattering, even though no one can say definitevely how manifests into the pattern.

[snowman19]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Apprently all 5,323 -IOD graphics were earth shattering, even though no one can say definitevely how manifests into the pattern.

The strongest -IOD since 1996 is earth-shattering

[bncho]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The strongest -IOD since 1996 is earth-shattering

the earth is still intact man

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyone know where Judah's fraud index landed? Guessing about normal?

[George001]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Not earth shattering. I don’t think anyone here expected a severely negative PDO going into winter. Everyone I’ve seen has been expecting a rise from the severely negative levels. The only unrealistic expectations I’ve seen have been on Twitter….we had some twitterologists back in the spring expecting that we would be in an El Niño/+PDO with a “grand solar minimum” right now….

Historical precedence argued against this, I remember doing research on this when hearing about all the El Niño hype. 2 years after a strong or super Nino goes -ENSO roughly 80% of the time. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Like I said, it took the best winter ever and one other good one in that 15 year stretch to get it to 21.8, the other 13 years averaged less than 17", like what we have had recently.  Those 15 years for my area not far outside the city were worse than the last 9 here.  We only had 2 years where the benchmark track worked in that past timeframe, the rest of the 15 years didn't for the NYC vicinity.  

This has been the lowest 7 year run on record for the entire I-95 corridor from DCA to BOS. NYC has averaged 14.9” over this period. The last time NYC dipped under 18” for a 7 year stretch was back in 1992 during a much colder climate when they averaged 16.3”.

So NYC able to have that 7 year to 10 year average jump back into 20s in the next few years since it was cold enough for a 50” season in 93-94 and a 75” season in 95-96. NYC hasn’t had a cold enough winter for 50” of snow since 14-15 which was before the big temperature jump in 15-16.

Its unlikely NYC sees a 50” season and a 75” season absent a volcanic cooling not seen since the early 1800s during the remainder of the 2020s. So having both warm storm tracks and warm average winter temperatures has lead to this record low 7 year totals.

That snow drought ending in 1992 was mostly a function of drier winters since the winter average temperatures were significantly colder than today.

All the other prior snow droughts before 1992 when the NYC averaged under 20” for a 7 year stretch were also followed by 50” seasons. So those were the markers that the winter dry patterns were ending. The recent combination of record winter warmth and storm track warmth is a first for NYC. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Not earth shattering. I don’t think anyone here expected a severely negative PDO going into winter. Everyone I’ve seen has been expecting a rise from the severely negative levels. The only unrealistic expectations I’ve seen have been on Twitter….we had some twitterologists back in the spring expecting that we would be in an El Niño/+PDO with a “grand solar minimum” right now….

I did wonder about warm ENSO before spring, but quickly relazed it wasn't happening. I do think we are nearing a PDO shift, but obviously not there yet.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I did wonder about warm ENSO before spring, but quickly relazed it wasn't happening. I do think we are nearing a PDO shift, but obviously not there yet.

Last year on this date, we were a hair lower than -2. This year's -1.31 is much better than last year (if you want snow in the east), so maybe we can make it sufficiently high enough to make a difference. There's still time in light of the trend over the last 3 months. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Last year on this date, we were a hair lower than -2. This year's -1.31 is much better than last year (if you want snow in the east), so maybe we can make it sufficiently high enough to make a difference. There's still time in light of the trend over the last 3 months. 

The big rise since July was a given....it was at record levels.

[GaWx]

Euro Weeklies Dec 1-7: today’s run is coldest run yet
 

[brooklynwx99]

i swear, reading this thread is like groundhog day sometimes

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i swear, reading this thread is like groundhog day sometimes

[MJO812]

30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i swear, reading this thread is like groundhog day sometimes

People cant be happy with the pattern coming up. Its always something .

[MJO812]

34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Euro Weeklies Dec 1-7: today’s run is coldest run yet
 

Snowmap also looks good 

[MJO812]

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hey Anthony,

 Looks great! It isn’t quite as good as yesterday’s, which was the best run yet as it had the mean drop to 7 at the low point, but I still love this!

[PhiEaglesfan712]

And don't forget that we also got the volcanic cooling from Pinatubo, which helped fueled the snowy winters of 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96.

Then again, it's highly unlikely we're going to get something like Pinatubo the rest of this decade. So, we're going to have to hope this next el nino flips the PDO positive or the Pacific jet becomes slow again (like 2009-10/2010-11 or 2013-14/2014-15).

 

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Last year on this date, we were a hair lower than -2. This year's -1.31 is much better than last year (if you want snow in the east), so maybe we can make it sufficiently high enough to make a difference. There's still time in light of the trend over the last 3 months. 

Are you sure the PDO is -1.31? I see -2.40 as the value for October 2025 (actually lower than the -2.33 in September) on NOAA: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

And don't forget that we also got the volcanic cooling from Pinatubo, which helped fueled the snowy winters of 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96.

Then again, it's highly unlikely we're going to get something like Pinatubo the rest of this decade. So, we're going to have to hope this next el nino flips the PDO positive or the Pacific jet becomes slow again (like 2009-10/2010-11 or 2013-14/2014-15).

 

Are you sure the PDO is -1.31? I see -2.40 as the value for October 2025 (actually lower than the -2.33 in September) on NOAA: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

I want to say those are "Normalized" or re-calculated in some way.  I've seen the -1.3 mentioned by others too.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyone have the EURO PV forecast?

[mitchnick]

11 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

And don't forget that we also got the volcanic cooling from Pinatubo, which helped fueled the snowy winters of 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96.

Then again, it's highly unlikely we're going to get something like Pinatubo the rest of this decade. So, we're going to have to hope this next el nino flips the PDO positive or the Pacific jet becomes slow again (like 2009-10/2010-11 or 2013-14/2014-15).

 

Are you sure the PDO is -1.31? I see -2.40 as the value for October 2025 (actually lower than the -2.33 in September) on NOAA: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

I'm using the World Climate website. It's been mentioned by Gawx many times it's lower than the site you posted. Either site is fine if you're using it for relative changes compared to historical values, which is is all I'm doing. 

[mitchnick]

Great video on solar activity over the next couple weeks. Pole region predicted to get decent solar storm activity. Wonder what it does for AO/NAO prospects.

 

[bluewave]

On 10/31/2025 at 8:20 AM, snowman19 said:

Lowest since 2012 in that part of the arctic….
 

My guess is that the blocking and potential warming of the stratosphere is linked to this extreme warmth and lack of sea ice in the Kara and Barents areas. A recent study showed this potential sea ice to stratosphere link.

So it’s looking like this will follow the Siberian precursor type of stratosphere event as outlined by Mike Ventrice. We will have to wait and see what the official designation of this potential stratospheric event is.

The million dollar question is if this event will have the potential to in some way disrupt the Pacific Jet and lead to more of a benchmark type storm track into early December?

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL107221

Key Points

 

• Barents-Kara Seas (BKS) sea ice loss modulates the impacts of autumn SPV stretching events on subsequent Siberian cooling

• Reduced BKS sea ice enhances the upward propagation of waves into the stratosphere over the Euro-Siberian sector

• Descent of the anomalous stratospheric wave-2 ridge bridges the SPV stretching events and Siberian cooling under low sea ice conditions

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that the blocking and potential warming of the stratosphere is linked to this extreme warmth and lack of sea ice in the Kara and Barents areas. A recent study showed this potential sea ice to stratosphere link.

So it’s looking like this will follow the Siberian precursor type of stratosphere event as outlined by Mike Ventrice. We will have to wait and see what the official designation of this potential stratospheric event is.

The million dollar question is if this event will have the potential to in some way disrupt the Pacific Jet and lead to more of a benchmark type storm track into early December?

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL107221

Key Points

 

• Barents-Kara Seas (BKS) sea ice loss modulates the impacts of autumn SPV stretching events on subsequent Siberian cooling

• Reduced BKS sea ice enhances the upward propagation of waves into the stratosphere over the Euro-Siberian sector

• Descent of the anomalous stratospheric wave-2 ridge bridges the SPV stretching events and Siberian cooling under low sea ice conditions

 

I think the absence of a severe RNA would also help...sure, the Pac jet would still mitigate KU potential, but it's not absolutely prohibitive to more moderate events.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone have the EURO PV forecast?

Found it. If Anthony didn't post the EURO, then the EURO looks just like whatever he posted.

[snowman19]

Great video on solar activity over the next couple weeks. Pole region predicted to get decent solar storm activity. Wonder what it does for AO/NAO prospects.
 

[yoda]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1986792853268467905

I like the sound of that 

[FPizz]

10 minutes ago, yoda said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1986792853268467905

I like the sound of that 

He's been bullish on this and several others as well as we've been reading here.

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, FPizz said:

He's been bullish on this and several others as well as we've been reading here.

Yep

More people are bullish on a fast start to winter than last winter.

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep

More people are bullish on a fast start to winter than last winter.

We will see how things look as the weeks tick off.  Fast start for us near the coast is always hard to pull off.