2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think 2017 is the only exception, with the historic cold 2nd half of December/first half of January. We stayed overnight (might have been 2 nights) at AC for my sister's 25th birthday, and it was way too cold to go on the Boardwalk. That year, we didn't get the warm-up until mid-January, and we all know about that record warmth in February. Then, of course, the cold/snowy pattern came back for March and April.

Even before that 2nd coldest late December 2017 into early January 2018 period, most areas from Philly to NYC Metro still made it above 55° from the 17th to 25th like every year since 2011. Many of those years the long range models missed that warm up. But once we got past the first week of December, the models played catch up the closer in time we get to the period. 
 

Data for December 17, 2017 through December 25, 2017
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	61
CAPE MAY 2 NW	COOP	61
MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	61
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	61
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	61
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	61
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	61
HAMMONTON 1 NE	COOP	60
ATSION	COOP	60
EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY	RAWS	60
PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO	COOP	59
MANASQUAN 1 NW	COOP	59
WRIGHTSTOWN	COOP	59
PENNSAUKEN 1N	COOP	59
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	58
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	58
SEABROOK FARMS	COOP	58
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	58
TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT	WBAN	58
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	58
Newark Area	ThreadEx	57
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	57
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	57
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	57
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	56
MARGATE	COOP	56
Atlantic City Marina Area	ThreadEx	56
ATLANTIC CITY MARINA	WBAN	56
WERTSVILLE 4 NE	COOP	56
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	56
HARRISON	COOP	56
FLEMINGTON 5 NNW	COOP	55
PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE	COOP	55
CANOE BROOK	COOP	55

 

Data for December 17, 2017 through December 25, 2017
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

MONTAUK AIRPORT	WBAN	57
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	56
WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	56
MOUNT SINAI	COOP	56
SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	56
New York-LGA Area	ThreadEx	56
BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	55
FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	55
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	55
NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	55
RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	55
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	55
JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	55
Islip Area	ThreadEx	55
New York-Kennedy Airport Area	ThreadEx	55
New York-Central Park Area	ThreadEx	55

[SnowGoose69]

25 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think 2017 is the only exception, with the historic cold 2nd half of December/first half of January. We stayed overnight (might have been 2 nights) at AC for my sister's 25th birthday, and it was way too cold to go on the Boardwalk. That year, we didn't get the warm-up until mid-January, and we all know about that record warmth in February. Then, of course, the cold/snowy pattern came back for March and April.

Yeah I think 2018 was the year where in southeast parts of the US all the trees opened and there was major damage from frosts in March and April 

[snowman19]

Besides the “blob” situation, a pronounced -PMM has developed as well
 

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies update:

1) 4th run in a row with a very weak SPV late Nov/early Dec with today’s having ~25% of members with a very early major SSW, the highest yet of any run!

2) After having warmed up significantly in the E US the last 3 runs for most of November/early Dec from the cold Nov 2-9 and then mainly NN Nov 10-Dec 7 of the Oct 26 run, today’s has cooled back down notably for much of Nov 10-Dec 7 and is downright cold for the new week (Dec 8-14) with a solid -AO for Nov 24-Dec 14. Keep in mind that the Euro often has trouble seeing cold too far out. So, seeing BN all the way out at weeks 5-6 in today’s run is noteworthy and will be followed closely for future trends:

—————
Week six H5:

Week five 2m temps:

 

Week six 2m temps:

 

[Krs4Lfe]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Besides the “blob” situation, a pronounced -PMM has developed as well
 

I don’t believe that’s where we would want all the storminess. That’ll keep knocking into west Canada and west coast and the ridge will keep rolling over. Not a good look to funnel in cold arctic air into CONUS, which is necessary for our snow chances. 

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I don’t believe that’s where we would want all the storminess. That’ll keep knocking into west Canada and west coast and the ridge will keep rolling over. Not a good look to funnel in cold arctic air into CONUS, which is necessary for our snow chances. 

We need ridging into Alaska to drive cold air south from there. A more rounded ridge pointed into Canada would just bring Pacific mild air in. In December especially near the coast the source region for airmass is very important. And obviously a roaring Pacific jet would tend to knock the ridge down and nudge it east.