2025-2026 ENSO

[brooklynwx99]

this is a pretty wild change near Japan since August. that heatwave is almost entirely wiped out... wondering if this is a change to a +PDO down the road, especially if we get a Nino next year

[George001]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I can see 2013, 2014 though? Lol That was +ENSO and ++PDO

Edit: @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @donsutherland1 Strongest -IOD of the 21st century
 

Either way 2014 isn’t an analog I would use, but I do think it’s worth keeping an open mind about +ENSO analogs if other factors line up. I would prefer a negative PDO though 

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

2025 ACE:

Through Sept 16th: 39

Sept 17th+: 74 and rising rapidly.

The full season to date ACE is progged to get above the 1991-2020 full season avg of 122 by tonight and then go well above that within the next few days. This very active late season ACE has been the pattern especially in recent La Nina seasons.

 There have been 4 MH with 3 of them occurring since Sept 22!

 

Which worked well for my peak season forecast, though I missed Melissa by 11 hours lol. 

[Yanksfan]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is a pretty wild change near Japan since August. that heatwave is almost entirely wiped out... wondering if this is a change to a +PDO down the road, especially if we get a Nino next year

That should help to slow down the raging pac jet a bit this winter but we need more cooling to see a more pronounced slow down.

[stadiumwave]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We have reached the point where people using 2013 as an SST analog (SST analog) have an issue. Not commenting on any other factors being used as an analog to that year, just SSTs. But as it stands now, we are not even in the ballpark of going into a Victoria mode PDO, not even close, whereas we were into a Victoria mode PDO by the beginning of November back in 2013….

 

If you're referring simply to the SST's in N Pac, I guess you have not bothered to look at the progression of the NPAC in Fall & Winter 2013?? NPAC went from emerging blob in Sept to colder than now in Oct & then warm again by the end of DEC. 

https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/729-winter-2025-2026/page/6/#findComment-127931

 

Go look for yourself:

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/2013.html

[GaWx]

On 10/26/2025 at 4:23 PM, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies 10 mb zonal wind update fwiw:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies run mean has an even weaker SPV with only 8 of the 42 days’ mean stronger than normal, and it even includes 15% of members with a very early major SSW, by far the most yet of any run this season!

 Note that the progged mean Thanksgiving through Dec 11th of 2025 SPV is only ~20 vs normal of 31, which would be the weakest for that period since 2019-20:

 

Compare the above to the prog at the same time last year: 40 of the 42 days’ mean stronger than normal along with ZERO members with a major SSW:

 Note that the mean Thanksgiving through Dec 12th of 2024 was up at ~37 (it verified to be way up at ~45)

Now compare to the prog from the same time two years ago: 30 of the 42 days’ mean stronger than normal with only 2% with a major SSW:

Note that the mean Thanksgiving through Dec 9th of 2023 was ~31 (it verified to be ~34):

 

 In summary, this post shows that the 100 member Euro Weeklies mean is suggesting a mainly weak SPV in late Nov and early Dec, which would compare to a very strong SPV for the same time in 2024 and a slightly stronger than normal SPV in 2023. Even if we assume that the 2025 prog is biased modestly too negative, a bias adjustment would still be progged pretty weak (~25) and would be way below 2024’s actual of 45 and significantly below 2023’s actual of 34.
 

@mitchnick@snowman19