2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

You want p7. Those T storms will attack the strat .

[MJO812]

Having a weak polar vortex bolds well for an early start to winter for the midwest and east .

[EasternLI]

Generally not a fan of the RMM MJO charts. However, I think these euro weekly ones are beneficial. Mainly to visualize what the individual members are doing inside the mean and for trends. IMHO, not sure how anyone can call what happens with this event currently with any confidence. Still think it's too early. With that being said, lets look at the trend over the past week wrt this event. EC 46 one week ago versus today's forecast. A few things are noticeable. The verification vs the forecast from a week ago has been much higher in amplitude. With verification higher than the highest ensemble members forecast. The mean which was spiraling off into the COD is no longer doing so with a signal into the Pacific now. Also interestingly, later in the forecast period, there are many more members with renewed amplification in the Pacific now on today's run which just updated. This is still worth watching...

One week ago:

Today:

[snowman19]

51 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Having a weak polar vortex bolds well for an early start to winter for the midwest and east .

All indications are that the SPV is going to strengthen in November right now 

[roardog]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

All indications are that the SPV is going to strengthen in November right now 

Doesn’t it pretty much always strengthen in November as we head into Winter?

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Nino 1.2 continues to run warmer than 3.4.  This has been the recent theme with the EWBs not able to penetrate closer to the SA coast. It all began with the record WWB near the SA coast back in March 2023.

 

 

This doesn't really affect the EMI very much since 1.2 is so minuscule and variable....the reason the EMI is biased east based is because La Niña has and will continue to be centered in region 3 and the eastern half of 3.4.

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, roardog said:

Doesn’t it pretty much always strengthen in November as we head into Winter?

No, it can stay weak

[George001]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Having a weak polar vortex bolds well for an early start to winter for the midwest and east .

Things are looking promising for a big December.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, George001 said:

Things are looking promising for a big December.

Agree

 

[snowman19]

Unless we start seeing upward wave fluxes into the stratosphere and warmings, the SPV is going to have no choice but to cool and strengthen in November. There is zero indication right now of any “top down” warmings coming. It’s also looking more and more likely that the MJO doesn’t make it past the ‘Maritime Barrier’ on this current cycle

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Unless we start seeing upward wave fluxes into the stratosphere and warmings, the SPV is going to have no choice but to cool and strengthen in November. There is zero indication right now of any “top down” warmings coming. It’s also looking more and more likely that the MJO doesn’t make it past the ‘Maritime Barrier’ on this current cycle

Idk. Over the next 40 day forecast period, the Eps weeklies has winds below normal around 2/3's of the time just eyeballin' it.

[DarkSharkWX]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This doesn't really affect the EMI very much since 1.2 is so minuscule and variable....the reason the EMI is biased east based is because La Niña has and will continue to be centered in region 3 and the eastern half of 3.4.

where do you get the EMI index/EMI forecasts?

[George001]

For what it’s worth this no longer looks like it will be a low ACE season. 

[snowman19]

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Idk. Over the next 40 day forecast period, the Eps weeklies has winds below normal around 2/3's of the time just eyeballin' it.

Day to day SPV forecast changes aside, I’m not seeing a mechanism (yet) that will force the SPV to stay weak next month

Side note: @Bluewave The impressive +SOI run continues, and some MJO musings:

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said:

where do you get the EMI index/EMI forecasts?

Here's a link: www.jamstec.go.jp/virtualearth/general/en/graph_SINTEX.html#emi

[donsutherland1]

Earlier this month, it was noted that based on objective ENSO-Teleconnections analysis, 2021-2022 was an emerging, high-ranked analog. Today, the NAO was -1.329 while the AO was +1.370. The last time the NAO was -1.000 or below while the AO was +1.000 or above during fall was November 4-5, 2021. 

 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Earlier this month, it was noted that based on objective ENSO-Teleconnections analysis, 2021-2022 was an emerging, high-ranked analog. Today, the NAO was -1.329 while the AO was +1.370. The last time the NAO was -1.000 or below while the AO was +1.000 or above during fall was November 4-5, 2021. 

 

That’s one of my top analogs, too. Another one high on the list is 2017-18

[mitchnick]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Day to day SPV forecast changes aside, I’m not seeing a mechanism (yet) that will force the SPV to stay weak next month

Side note: @Bluewave The impressive +SOI run continues, and some MJO musings:

 

 

 

 

Um, I  would "guess" that the Eps sees what you're seeing too, so...

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Um, I  would "guess" that the Eps sees what you're seeing too, so...

Today’s Euro Weeklies 10 mb zonal wind update fwiw:

[snowman19]

35 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Um, I  would "guess" that the Eps sees what you're seeing too, so...

I don’t care what it sees in day to day noise. I’m talking about the overall stratospheric picture going into November here, there is an absence of upward wave fluxes causing warmings and there is zero evidence of any top-down warmings coming. Given those facts, if that’s correct, and it appears to be, the SPV is going to cool and strengthen 

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies out 6 weeks for E US:

- Coldest 1st 2 weeks of any run (see below) for that period thanks to a combo of an impressive +PNA and impressive ascending -NAO, which should it verify closely would be coldest for E US overall since the similarly chilly 2012 for Oct 27-Nov 9. For those curious, that period in 2012 actually had a mean near opposite weak -PNA as well as a similarly strong -NAO and weak -AO.
Edit: it had a +EPO like we have now. It had for MJO moderate 2, mod 3, and ended with weak 4/5.

- No long period of mild in sight with weeks 3, 5, and 6 NN and week 4 only barely AN

Week 1 (Oct 27-Nov 2):

 

Week 2 (Nov 3-9):

[mitchnick]

53 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies out 6 weeks for E US:

- Coldest 1st 2 weeks of any run (see below) for that period thanks to a combo of an impressive +PNA and impressive ascending -NAO, which should it verify closely would be coldest for E US overall since the similarly chilly 2012 for Oct 27-Nov 9. For those curious, that period in 2012 actually had a mean near opposite weak -PNA as well as a similarly strong -NAO and weak -AO.
Edit: it had a +EPO like we have now. It had for MJO moderate 2, mod 3, and ended with weak 4.

- No long period of mild in sight with weeks 3, 5, and 6 NN and week 4 only barely AN

Week 1 (Oct 27-Nov 2):

 

Week 2 (Nov 3-9):

Just as last year, they keep getting colder as we approach the forecast period. I'll take that as a positive at this point.

[chris21]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t care what it sees in day to day noise. I’m talking about the overall stratospheric picture going into November here, there is an absence of upward wave fluxes causing warmings and there is zero evidence of any top-down warmings coming. Given those facts, if that’s correct, and it appears to be, the SPV is going to cool and strengthen 

Dude, no offense and I enjoy some of your posts… this is the least surprising take I’ve ever seen on the board, and I’ve been on here or easternwx (or wright weather before that) for over twenty years.

[MJO812]

DT Preliminary Winter Outlook

[Terpeast]

Here's my winter outlook. (more of the same...)

 

[snowman19]

We have reached the point where people using 2013 as an SST analog (SST analog) have an issue. Not commenting on any other factors being used as an analog to that year, just SSTs. But as it stands now, we are not even in the ballpark of going into a Victoria mode PDO, not even close, whereas we were into a Victoria mode PDO by the beginning of November back in 2013….

[mitchnick]

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We have reached the point where people using 2013 as an SST analog (SST analog) have an issue. Not commenting on any other factors being used as an analog to that year, just SSTs. But as it stands now, we are not even in the ballpark of going into a Victoria mode PDO, not even close, whereas we were into a Victoria mode PDO by the beginning of November back in 2013….

You posted the 15 day change map. The anomaly map looks quite a bit different for better or for worse.

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You posted the 15 day change map. The anomaly map looks quite a bit different for better or for worse.

My point, again, only focusing on SSTs is that back in 2013, the areas that are and have been cooling now (GOA, along the west coast and off Baja) were warming very quickly at this time back then

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

DT Preliminary Winter Outlook

Wow...he is aggressive.

Loves 2013 and 2014.

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, George001 said:

For what it’s worth this no longer looks like it will be a low ACE season. 

This has been the pattern over the last decade. Early start to the season followed by a lull from late August into early September. Followed by a very strong late September to late October. So very challenging to get a low ACE season anymore with the record Atlantic SSTs and these historic RI and so many Cat 4-5 hurricanes.