2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

35 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

this is really interesting b/c if im not mistaken IOD/IO forcing has the highest correlation to +WPO, so you wouldn't think that it would exactly be favorable for NAO

maybe through stratospheric reflection events?

Yes. I saw a study (probably the one you’re referring to) years ago that tied IOD forcing into the WPO

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

to which statement (assuming both)

IOD's effect really depends on strength/location of ENSO... a study i read the other day about CP/EP ninas and the subsequent impact on NAO saw that CP ENSO had statistically significant correlation(SSTA between 180-150W) to either +NAO/-NAO depending on if it was cp nina/nino respectively, but the correlation for EP ninas/ninos was too weak to discern anything as concrete

IOD/WPO correlation.

I don't doubt the La Nina correlation....Modoki favors positive NAO/flat Aleutian ridging and EP is more favorable for negative NAO/poleward Aleutian ridging. Anyway, obviously exceptions with regard to both correlations. I would favor weak +WPO/NAO in the DJFM mean this season.

[EasternLI]

2 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

this is really interesting b/c if im not mistaken IOD/IO forcing has the highest correlation to +WPO, so you wouldn't think that it would exactly be favorable for NAO

maybe through stratospheric reflection events?

This year is seemingly lining up to be an interesting case to watch regarding all of this. The paper did mention the addition of enso forcing alters things. Sometimes drastically. However over the course of the last 30 days, it does appear to be a stand out feature on the VP200 charts and OLR charts. I didn't notice any recent years, when looking back through that data, looking quite like this. So certainly a very valid feature to monitor. 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

ACE as of 12Z today is at 93.8. A 100+ is still not yet near a guarantee although it remains very highly likely.

[snowman19]

NOAA/CPC has upgraded to a La Niña advisory today

[George001]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t think anyone on here at least expected anything more than a weak La Niña 

Yeah, I was of the impression the debate was weak La Niña vs cold neutral and everything else was off the table.

[MJO812]

[so_whats_happening]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Should end any residual delusions of grandeur regarding the ultimate intensity of this cool ENSO event.

Yea we will see what happens, I'm more so interested if this will actually show that negative anomaly being finally taken out. That feature has been present for a very long time even during the last Nino. 

[so_whats_happening]

Remarkably similar 2 month period with some probably pretty important differences.

[roardog]

30 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Remarkably similar 2 month period with some probably pretty important differences.

That’s crazy. The sensible weather even felt the same.

[brooklynwx99]

34 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Remarkably similar 2 month period with some probably pretty important differences.

yeah, this fall is really reminding me of last fall so far. last year continues to be a pretty strong analog

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, this fall is really reminding me of last fall so far. last year continues to be a pretty strong analog

If this continues to hold (a big if) we may do even better than last year with the -qbo. Low expectations going in, though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

If this continues to hold (a big if) we may do even better than last year with the -qbo. Low expectations going in, though. 

I'll be absolutely floored if my area doesn't do better.

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Remarkably similar 2 month period with some probably pretty important differences.

This has pretty much been our default August and September pattern since 2022. Strong blocking in Canada with a weak low near the Northeast. Impressive to get a similar pattern for 4 years in a row.

[donsutherland1]

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Basically an ad. Teaser followed by 'buy my product/service.'  

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Basically an ad. Teaser followed by 'buy my product/service.'  

Tis the season to build up the subscribers before winter! 

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Tis the season to build up the subscribers before winter! 

They're known for their hype. From last winter, here was one of their hyped long-range forecasts:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60046-2024-2025-la-nina/?do=findComment&comment=7582201

 

[snowman19]

30 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

They're known for their hype. From last winter, here was one of their hyped long-range forecasts:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60046-2024-2025-la-nina/?do=findComment&comment=7582201

 

All you have to do is see the names and look no further….BAMWX, Mark Margavage, JB, Henry Margusity, Tony Pann, Mike Masco, severe-weather.EU…and you know it’s going to be hype about a very cold and very snowy winter

[DarkSharkWX]

14 hours ago, Terpeast said:

If this continues to hold (a big if) we may do even better than last year with the -qbo. Low expectations going in, though. 

imo the -QBO is slightly worse for us since we'll get more southeast ridging in general(since convection will be more centered around the equator, more poleward convection would also push the pattern more poleward), however, it also means more active/stronger MJO, as well as a weaker PV earlier on, so that could help overwhelm any other subseasonal factor in providing good patterns even if brief if MJO propagates to favorable phases(which, so far, it looks decently good to do so)

probably a decent amount better for new england/interior northeast since they are a lot less sensitive to SER, and a lot was very suppressed for them for a good chunk of the winter

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Tis the season to build up the subscribers before winter! 

True, but what else do you expect?  Even those that you think are good do the same thing if they are trying to make a living.  They are a business, just like all the ads you see on TV. It is up to the subscriber to decide whether they think Bam is good or not to hand over their $, just like with everything else we pay for.  Eventually if they keep putting out crap, no one will subscribe.  It is pretty easy to block them or scroll by.  Imagine wasting your time doing what Don did with a post here dissecting their one post (that eventually they did amend).  They are laughing at you too for doing that.  

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

ACE as of 12Z today is at 93.8. A 100+ is still not yet near a guarantee although it remains very highly likely.

The “dynamic duo” of TS Jerry and the surprise, STS Karen, has added only 1.44 ACE the last 24 hours. Needless to say, they’ll both be back on the list in 2031.
 

 The season to date has climbed to only 95.24 with no large amount of ACE yet in site. I’m thinking just under 100 once these 2 storms are history. 

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The “dynamic duo” of TS Jerry and the surprise, STS Karen, has added only 1.44 ACE the last 24 hours. Needless to say, they’ll both be back in 2031.
 

 The season to date has climbed to only 95.24 with no large amount of ACE yet in site. I’m thinking just under 100 once these 2 storms are history. 

I still won’t be surprised if we finish around or just under 100 ACE for the season. If that happens, like I’ve said, using factors such as La Niña/-PDO/-PMM/+AMO, warm MDR as justification to predict an active Atlantic hurricane season need to be re-evaluated. Maybe things like solar cycle, etc. need to be figured in. It’s akin to how some were using the amazingly persistent ++AO since spring to argue for some big arctic sea ice recovery, which didn’t happen

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I still won’t be surprised if we finish around or just under 100 ACE for the season. If that happens, like I’ve said, using factors such as La Niña/-PDO/-PMM/+AMO, warm MDR as justification to predict an active Atlantic hurricane season need to be re-evaluated. Maybe things like solar cycle, etc. need to be figured in. It’s akin to how some were using the amazingly persistent ++AO since spring to argue for some big arctic sea ice recovery, which didn’t happen

I think it's the same issue that plagued my seasonal forecasting during the 2023-2024 El Nino season...folks need to reevaluate more archaic methods of forecasting given the rate at which the modern climate is changing. I don't think forecasters take into account the redued gradient between the sub tropics and the tropics enough, which stifles convective instability. We are warming more rapidly with latitude.....just like nights are warming more rapidly than days. The general warming of the oceans outiside of ENSO also alters the equations, which is something that I failed to appreciate. Remeber...weather happens because of the gradients that result from the redistribution of heat....nothing else. Alter that gradient and conventional forecasting methods will not work.

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I still won’t be surprised if we finish around or just under 100 ACE for the season. If that happens, like I’ve said, using factors such as La Niña/-PDO/-PMM/+AMO, warm MDR as justification to predict an active Atlantic hurricane season need to be re-evaluated. Maybe things like solar cycle, etc. need to be figured in. It’s akin to how some were using the amazingly persistent ++AO since spring to argue for some big arctic sea ice recovery, which didn’t happen

We had some good discussion last year during the mid season lull about the possibility that there’s a modest negative correlation between sunspots and Atlantic ACE. Sunspots were at a quite high level, especially in August of ‘24, when the tropics were dead. The hypothesis centers around the idea of slightly increased stability in the tropics during peak solar periods, enough to possibly make a difference sometimes. There’s been nothing proven though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

We had some good discussion last year during the mid season lull about the possibility that there’s a modest negative correlation between sunspots and Atlantic ACE. Sunspots were at a quite high level, especially in August of ‘24, when the tropics were dead. The hypothesis centers around the idea of slightly increased stability in the tropics during peak solar periods, enough to possibly make a difference sometimes. There’s been nothing proven though.

Yes, the issue was definitely increased stability...which may have been for a couple of reasons.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

All you have to do is see the names and look no further….BAMWX, Mark Margavage, JB, Henry Margusity, Tony Pann, Mike Masco, severe-weather.EU…and you know it’s going to be hype about a very cold and very snowy winter

Direct Weather is as bad as any.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said:

imo the -QBO is slightly worse for us since we'll get more southeast ridging in general(since convection will be more centered around the equator, more poleward convection would also push the pattern more poleward), however, it also means more active/stronger MJO, as well as a weaker PV earlier on, so that could help overwhelm any other subseasonal factor in providing good patterns even if brief if MJO propagates to favorable phases(which, so far, it looks decently good to do so)

probably a decent amount better for new england/interior northeast since they are a lot less sensitive to SER, and a lot was very suppressed for them for a good chunk of the winter

100%.

This is why I am so confident that my area will see more snowfall, even if it's a bit warmer. I do not feel warmth will be prohibitive for the vast majority of the season...at least not at this latiitude.