snowman19 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 35 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: this is really interesting b/c if im not mistaken IOD/IO forcing has the highest correlation to +WPO, so you wouldn't think that it would exactly be favorable for NAO maybe through stratospheric reflection events? Yes. I saw a study (probably the one you’re referring to) years ago that tied IOD forcing into the WPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 15 hours ago Author Share Posted 15 hours ago 2 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said: to which statement (assuming both) IOD's effect really depends on strength/location of ENSO... a study i read the other day about CP/EP ninas and the subsequent impact on NAO saw that CP ENSO had statistically significant correlation(SSTA between 180-150W) to either +NAO/-NAO depending on if it was cp nina/nino respectively, but the correlation for EP ninas/ninos was too weak to discern anything as concrete IOD/WPO correlation. I don't doubt the La Nina correlation....Modoki favors positive NAO/flat Aleutian ridging and EP is more favorable for negative NAO/poleward Aleutian ridging. Anyway, obviously exceptions with regard to both correlations. I would favor weak +WPO/NAO in the DJFM mean this season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 2 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said: this is really interesting b/c if im not mistaken IOD/IO forcing has the highest correlation to +WPO, so you wouldn't think that it would exactly be favorable for NAO maybe through stratospheric reflection events? This year is seemingly lining up to be an interesting case to watch regarding all of this. The paper did mention the addition of enso forcing alters things. Sometimes drastically. However over the course of the last 30 days, it does appear to be a stand out feature on the VP200 charts and OLR charts. I didn't notice any recent years, when looking back through that data, looking quite like this. So certainly a very valid feature to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: ACE as of 12Z today is at 93.8. A 100+ is still not yet near a guarantee although it remains very highly likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago NOAA/CPC has upgraded to a La Niña advisory today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 7 hours ago, snowman19 said: I don’t think anyone on here at least expected anything more than a weak La Niña Yeah, I was of the impression the debate was weak La Niña vs cold neutral and everything else was off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Should end any residual delusions of grandeur regarding the ultimate intensity of this cool ENSO event. Yea we will see what happens, I'm more so interested if this will actually show that negative anomaly being finally taken out. That feature has been present for a very long time even during the last Nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Remarkably similar 2 month period with some probably pretty important differences. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 30 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Remarkably similar 2 month period with some probably pretty important differences. That’s crazy. The sensible weather even felt the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 34 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Remarkably similar 2 month period with some probably pretty important differences. yeah, this fall is really reminding me of last fall so far. last year continues to be a pretty strong analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, this fall is really reminding me of last fall so far. last year continues to be a pretty strong analog If this continues to hold (a big if) we may do even better than last year with the -qbo. Low expectations going in, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 hours ago, Terpeast said: If this continues to hold (a big if) we may do even better than last year with the -qbo. Low expectations going in, though. I'll be absolutely floored if my area doesn't do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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