2025-2026 ENSO

[PhiEaglesfan712]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is why it will be more challenging for Boston and other l-95 cities to the south to end this current much lower snowfall period like they did back in the early to mid-90s without a major VEI 7 or larger volcanic eruption to cool the climate down temporarily. 

 

Boston average snowfall 2019-2025….26.6”……DJF average temperature….34.6°

Boston average snowfall 1986-1992….29.9”……DJF average temperature….32.2°

Outstanding seasons following that lower snowfall period which ended the 7 year low

1992-1993…..83.9”……31.4°

1993-1994…..96.3”……27.8°

1995-1996…..107.6”……30.9°

Of course, those mid-90s seasons (especially 92-93 and 93-94) were aided by the temporary cool down in climate due to Pinatubo in 1991.

[snowman19]

AAM forecast: Ninaish for at least most of month 

The -IOD is enhacing it

[snowman19]

19 hours ago, GaWx said:

ACE, which yesterday got to a NN 91.64, is now taking a break for awhile pending mainly what the E MDR system and any possible W Caribbean system will or won’t do next week (Bahamas AOI is very weak with only a 10% chance): note that it got to 29th out of the last 75. It just missed 2018 though it went ahead of 2024, 2016, and 2022 (2022 not shown because it was then 78.85). But, 2024 and 2016 should soon pull well ahead of 2025 during this expected 2025 respite:

 

 So, getting 100+ is still not yet certain even though it’s highly likely. I’ll give it a 95% chance since it’s La Nina and recent late seasons have been active.

The new AI model runs want absolutely nothing at all to do with Atlantic tropical development the next couple of weeks. They actually did a very good job with the last 2 hurricanes, insisting that they were never going to even come close to making landfall in the SE. They actually schooled the operationals and ensembles of the other models. Are they onto something this time too? All we can do is wait and see at this point

[donsutherland1]

To illustrate @bluewavepoint about warming winters and reduced frequency of 50” snow seasons in NYC, here’s a chart that depicts winters with mean temperatures below 35 (blue) and 35 or above (red) and seasonal snowfall.

[snowman19]

This solar cycle is really taking its time to descend. September finished with sunspots at 135 for the month and the flux that started in August continues
 

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new AI model runs want absolutely nothing at all to do with Atlantic tropical development the next couple of weeks. They actually did a very good job with the last 2 hurricanes, insisting that they were never going to even come close to making landfall in the SE. They actually schooled the operationals and ensembles of the other models. Are they onto something this time too? All we can do is wait and see at this point

1. Humberto: the vast majority of all models never had it threaten the US

2. Imelda:

-No UKMET or Icon had it hit the US and only one JMA did so. They were not only not schooled, they were the schoolers!

-Several CMC had it hit as you implied.

-A good # of GFS/Euro along with many ens members hit as you implied.

-But some Euro AI runs hit, too, including from Humberto. So, UK, Icon, and JMA did better than Euro-AI:

 this top map has Humberto hit NC!

 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

To illustrate @bluewavepoint about warming winters and reduced frequency of 50” snow seasons in NYC, here’s a chart that depicts winters with mean temperatures below 35 (blue) and 35 or above (red) and seasonal snowfall.

I17/18 I had 53" and 20/21 had 51".  Its not like where I am is much different than nyc.  The difference was probably a band or two really, and it could of easily put NY over 50".  Snow is very location dependant.  Just because one site didnt reach 50 doesnt mean other didnt close by, and that you can broad brush statements like Bluewave does.  Like come on, a vei 7 is needed?  Even you know that is absurd.  He should win weenie of the year honestly.   

[anthonymm]

23 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw from our friends at Accuwx.

 

I like how if you forecast BN snow in the I95 corridor and AN out west you will be right like 9/10 times now.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Of course, those mid-90s seasons (especially 92-93 and 93-94) were aided by the temporary cool down in climate due to Pinatubo in 1991.

We would need a much larger even than that once since the cooling effects only lasted into 1992 and the temperatures now are much warmer than back then.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364682624000154#:~:text=Highlights,may be worse than thought.

Conclusions

The cooling attributed to the Mt. Pinatubo eruption of 0.5 °C over 18 months in the literature mostly based on climate model predictions is overrated. Despite uncertainties remaining in the determination of the cooling and the duration, accounting for natural variability as described in this work by using a simple and intuitive approach reduces the cooling to up to 0.28 °C, on average 0.2 °C, and the duration is similarly reduced to 13 months. This result is consistent with other empirical

[donsutherland1]

22 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I17/18 I had 53" and 20/21 had 51".  Its not like where I am is much different than nyc.  The difference was probably a band or two really, and it could of easily put NY over 50".  Snow is very location dependant.  Just because one site didnt reach 50 doesnt mean other didnt close by, and that you can broad brush statements like Bluewave does.  Like come on, a vei 7 is needed?  Even you know that is absurd.  He should win weenie of the year honestly.   

He was referring to New York City (Central Park). Interior sections are cooler than NYC's heat island. For example, using the two seasons you cited, the winter mean temperatures were as follows at nearby SMQ: 2017-18: 31.7° and 2020-21: 32.6°. For Central Park, the winter mean temperatures were 36.1° for both winters.

Here's how 50" seasons disappear in New York City's historic climate record:

Mean Winter Temperature above 32° (qualifying 50" or above seasons are denoted in red):

Mean Winter Temperature above 33° (qualifying 50" or above seasons are denoted in red): 

Mean Winter Temperature above 34° (qualifying 50" or above seasons are denoted in red):

New York City (JFK, LaGuardia, and Central Park) has never had a 50" season with a mean winter temperature above 35.0°. In the broader Mid-Atlantic, Washington, DC has a single case at 35.8°, so under the right circumstances, the upper-bound is higher than what New York City's climate record shows.

On the issue of a VEI-7 eruption, it would lead to short-lived but rapid global cooling (perhaps several tenths of a degree C). Mid-latitudes would generally see appreciable cooling. Internal variability can still result in sufficiently cold winters, but the kind of cold typically associated with 50" or above snowfall seasons in New York City is decreasing in frequency. Even last winter was at the outer fringes of temperatures consistent with such snowfall in New York City's climate record.

Interior sections away from the coast and outside the major heat islands of the big cities remain sufficiently cool for more frequent 50" or above seasons, and they will remain that way for several more decades at a minimum. However,@bluewavewas addressing New York City. He wasn't making an argument outside of New York City.

 

 

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

He was referring to New York City (Central Park). Interior sections are cooler than NYC's heat island. For example, using the two seasons you cited, the winter mean temperatures were as follows at nearby SMQ: 2017-18: 31.7° and 2020-21: 32.6°. For Central Park, the winter mean temperatures were 36.1° for both winters.

Here's how 50" seasons disappear in New York City's historic climate record:

Mean Winter Temperature above 32° (qualifying 50" or above seasons are denoted in red):

Mean Winter Temperature above 33° (qualifying 50" or above seasons are denoted in red): 

Mean Winter Temperature above 34° (qualifying 50" or above seasons are denoted in red):

New York City (JFK, LaGuardia, and Central Park) has never had a 50" season with a mean winter temperature above 35.0°. In the broader Mid-Atlantic, Washington, DC has a single case at 35.8°, so under the right circumstances, the upper-bound is higher than what New York City's climate record shows.

On the issue of a VEI-7 eruption, it would lead to short-lived but rapid global cooling (perhaps several tenths of a degree C). Mid-latitudes would generally see appreciable cooling. Internal variability can still result in sufficiently cold winters, but the kind of cold typically associated with 50" or above snowfall seasons in New York City is decreasing in frequency. Even last winter was at the outer fringes of temperatures consistent with such snowfall in New York City's climate record.

Interior sections away from the coast and outside the major heat islands of the big cities remain sufficiently cool for more frequent 50" or above seasons, and they will remain that way for several more decades at a minimum. However,@bluewavewas addressing New York City. He wasn't making an argument outside of New York City.

 

 

 

Yeah, areas west of the I-95 corridor are several degrees colder than NYC during the winter making it easier for them to average near or below freezing. But the rising winter temperature trend is the same at both locations. So unless this warming pattern stops, the areas just west of the I-95 corridor will also stop seeing 50”+ seasons in the coming decades. 
 

[michsnowfreak]

On 10/3/2025 at 12:25 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Once the winter mean temperature reaches 34.0° or above, the frequency of 50" or above snow seasons largely but not completely disappears. Washington, DC's 35.8° (2009-10) is the single case above 35.0° among all of the listed locations. For Central Park and also additional locations:

Detroit has only had 3 winters in recorded history reach 35.0°+. All long ago (1881-82, 1931-32, & 1889-90) and all well below avg snowfall. So im not surprised. 

[michsnowfreak]

19 hours ago, Ephesians2 said:

Well, to be fair, he's right that a warm October doesn't necessarily mean a warm winter in the east. October 2011 was cold, while October 2010, 2013, 2014 were above average. November is more correlated in my understanding.

JB is not exactly someone id cite for reference on anything, but he IS right. 

In fact when an enso pattern is firmly in place, a good rule of thumb (at least in the Lakes) is nino means cold October and mild winter, while nina means warm October colder winter.

[donsutherland1]

30 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Detroit has only had 3 winters in recorded history reach 35.0°+. All long ago (1881-82, 1931-32, & 1889-90) and all well below avg snowfall. So im not surprised. 

I believe any transition to structurally lower snowfall at Detroit is at least several decades away. 35° or above winter warmth will likely remain very uncommon for at least the next 20 or more years.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Big time +EPO this October.. models are showing it for the 2nd half of the month. EPO carries the same sign very well from October to January-February

[SnoSki14]

On 10/3/2025 at 11:25 AM, bluewave said:

NYC needs two things in order to have a 50” snowfall season. One is an average winter temperature close to 32°or colder. The other is a cold storm track out near the benchmark.

NYC has been nowhere near achieving this combination since the winters shifted so much warmer since 2015-2016.

First, the winters shifted warmer in 2015-2016 which was followed by a storm track warming since 2018-2019. NYC highest snowfall total over the last decade has only been 40.9”. The coldest winter average temperature has been 34.8°.

 

I think an oddball anomaly could still be possible in the snowier/colder direction that might generate this. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the much warmer temperatures at places like Boston separates this record low 7 year run from previous well below average streaks. The 7 year period ending in 1992 was several degrees colder.

So much of that periods lower snowfall was related to issues other than temperatures being too warm. This is why it’s unlikely that Boston will see 3 seasons before this decade is out with 83” to 107” snow.

Since this much warmer climate would struggle to produce such high totals in quick succession like 1992-1993 to 1995-1996 did.

This is why it will be more challenging for Boston and other l-95 cities to the south to end this current much lower snowfall period like they did back in the early to mid-90s without a major VEI 7 or larger volcanic eruption to cool the climate down temporarily. 

 

Boston average snowfall 2019-2025….26.6”……DJF average temperature….34.6°

Boston average snowfall 1986-1992….29.9”……DJF average temperature….32.2°

Outstanding seasons following that lower snowfall period which ended the 7 year low

1992-1993…..83.9”……31.4°

1993-1994…..96.3”……27.8°

1995-1996…..107.6”……30.9°

I think that is pretty unlikely independent of GW.....that was an incredibly anomalous stretch that included 2 all-time record snowfall seasons. Let's not get trigger happy with GW attribution.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Big time +EPO this October.. models are showing it for the 2nd half of the month. EPO carries the same sign very well from October to January-February

This jives with my thoughts for January, as my analogs have a stratospheric reflection event getting underway around mid month, which will trigger strong AK ridging and a +TNH pattern, but those reflection events are preceded by Pacific trough patterns....hence +EPO.

[jm1220]

Look what I found! It's build up the subscribers season. Anyone ever heard of this guy?

[snowman19]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Look what I found! It's build up the subscribers season. Anyone ever heard of this guy?

It’s a kid playing meteorologist on social media. It’s become a playground for weenie mets looking for subscription money, likes, follows, views and retweets and children playing weatherman

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s a kid playing meteorologist on social media. It’s become a playground for weenie mets looking for subscription money, likes, follows, views and retweets and children playing weatherman

Guess he's from Little Rock since that's the bullseye for the other Armageddon zone? 

[GaWx]

The latest Euro Weeklies are the most active yet in the W Caribbean for the week of 10/13-19 (if I were in the FL pen., especially S half, I’d be pretty concerned for midmonth):

Forecast nearby TC probabilities:

 

Forecasted anomalies vs 2005-24 climo: wow!