psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Operationals are just heading toward their ensemble means. True but if it goes down that way imma need an explanation why for 3 straight runs every op was NW of their ensembles. Significantly so. It was too many runs consistently for it to have been a random fluke of the ops spitting out an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Just now, Chris78 said: Remember when most of the models except for the GFS was showing a big hit? Lol Pepperidge Farm remembers!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeg0305 Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 I’m not an expert, hell I’m not even an amateur but why do we think in the end this storm will not be suppressed …like every other storm so far this winter? And yes I’m bitching as I live in northern Bmore County!!Yea I’m quoting myself….because y’all ignored my question last night. Seems like a valid one fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 If it looks like this on Monday night you can start freaking out. Until then I’m sure we will get 20 different solutions. So let’s chill until Monday night. In other news…Mcclung.Agreed on the weather part, but think by 0z Monday we’ll know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 1 minute ago, Ji said: there is zero chance the GFS is not south and east---its just a south and east model by default I’m thinking the tug N&W starts with the 0Z Goofus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 GFS running 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 If this goes SE at game time, can we say the GFS led the way? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Remember when most of the models except for the GFS was showing a big hit? Lol Most…it was ALL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Just now, 87storms said: In other news…Mcclung. Agreed on the weather part, but think by 0z Monday we’ll know. That dunk was insane. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Just now, psuhoffman said: Most…it was ALL Including the 12z icon and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Most…it was ALL its amazing how much has changed since 6z...i thought models were more advanced that that at thsi range. this is stuff you see 8 days out---not 4 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: True but if it goes down that way imma need an explanation why for 3 straight runs every op was NW of their ensembles. Significantly so. It was too many runs consistently for it to have been a random fluke of the ops spitting out an outlier. With the Euro, it's just too amped. Been like that ever since that failed upgrade in 2018 imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 The Icon looks just like the storm we had on Tuesday. The one that all models were painting a foot or more across the northern counties for days until they corrected south. Tired of this loop. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 1 minute ago, Ji said: its amazing how much has changed since 6z...i thought models were more advanced that that at thsi range. this is stuff you see 8 days out---not 4 days out Really no way for them to know the interaction with the PV that far out. What concerns me more is I was thinking the WAA was a lock for us. Not so sure on that anymore even. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: If this goes SE at game time, can we say the GFS led the way? Not really sure we can say that no matter how this turns out. Recall the 06Z and especially the 12Z GFS actually made a big move toward the heavier amounts area-wide, even farther north. If this goes back, it's just waffling, I'd hardly say it "led the way". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 let's go GFS take note from USA hockey leading Canada 5 min to go in game 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 GFS a touch more amped. Lets see if it helps at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 11 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Remember when most of the models except for the GFS was showing a big hit? Lol Yup, the one time you dont want gfs leading the way and it decides to grab the bull by the horn and take total charge 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 5 minutes ago, Ji said: its amazing how much has changed since 6z...i thought models were more advanced that that at thsi range. this is stuff you see 8 days out---not 4 days out In all honesty models get too much credit for the belief they are going to verify at long range, and even mid range. If this falls apart will re-think time spent getting excited over snow events that never happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yup, the one time you dont want gfs leading the way and it decides to grab the bull by the horn and take total charge its really not even the gfs. Its the least snowiest model seems to always win out 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Yup, the one time you dont want gfs leading the way and it decides to grab the bull by the horn and take total charge GFS can score a win. It has happened before, believe or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Mr. Miyagi designed at least some of the models. You know, "Snow on, snow off." It's all just normal preparation for the real event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 No major changes thru 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 What can I say, the writing is on the wall and some are in denial. I'd be a very happy man if I were in southern MD. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 This is the worst PBP in a long time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 2 minutes ago, LongRanger said: Mr. Miyagi designed at least some of the models. You know, "Snow on, snow off." It's all just normal preparation for the real event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: This is the worst PBP in a long time What pbp there is none? (And for good reason) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 A tick more separation between tpv and ss vort, precip a tick souther. Too early at 69h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 Looping to 81 hrs it has the look of incoming not gonna miss. Tn valley wave is healthy and all. I don’t buy they it just dies coming east with a non suppressive flow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16, 2025 Share Posted February 16, 2025 More separation between streams at 78 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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