As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, wokeupthisam said:

NAM isn't biting run after run, if 0Z suite ticks weaker/flatter still, hmmm may be on to something... 

it got much juicier, 3km and 12km, probably best run for SNE as a whole of any suite.. 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, wokeupthisam said:

NAM isn't biting run after run, if 0Z suite ticks weaker/flatter still, hmmm may be on to something... 

it increased at 0z

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

it got much juicier, 3km and 12km, probably best run for SNE as a whole of any suite.. 

ya looks much better   still think convection is playing with the models

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

let me guess, NWS only hired people with degrees?

In theory you don't have to have a meteorology degree, but there is a list of required coursework that more or less means you would have received a BS in meteorology or atmospheric science. 

[bristolri_wx]

[dryslot]

qpf bumped up this run.

[wokeupthisam]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

it got much juicier, 3km and 12km, probably best run for SNE as a whole of any suite.. 

Yup was looking at 18Z, 00Z def better.

[78Blizzard]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The headlines have decent bust potential.

Places with no headlines out-performing warned zones in some cases?  I could see NW rely on a fronto band, while SE gets smoked as the low gets going. 

I don't know about that map, but the NWS has a winter storm warning for all of Norfolk County as of this moment, which includes Norwood.

[dendrite]

30 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Good hit through SNE. 

Some of that is rain tonight 

[OceanStWx]

Scooter might let his kids out of the basement, it's starting to converge on a nice forcing signal around his backyard.

[ORH_wxman]

NAM looked actually somewhat healthy that run with the conveyors. Still not totally there like some of those zonked GFS runs but it’s much better. 

[78Blizzard]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Some of that is rain tonight 

Only a bit over a tenth of an inch.  The rest had fallen before the 0z run.

[butterfish55]

Brett (TBlizz) just texted me that he got locked out of his account for some reason.  Said he was trying to change the email associated with his account, never got an email confirmation and now is locked out.  You hate to see it...

[powderfreak]

43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM looked actually somewhat healthy that run with the conveyors. Still not totally there like some of those zonked GFS runs but it’s much better. 

Southern Middlesex looks like a fine place to be.  

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:

Brett (TBlizz) just texted me that he got locked out of his account for some reason.  Said he was trying to change the email associated with his account, never got an email confirmation and now is locked out.  You hate to see it...

PM @dendrite  

[78Blizzard]

The qpf has overproduced tonight by 50% from what the GFS had for us here, .35 vs .23 on the 18z run.  It's just about over now. Here's hoping it does the same tomorrow.

[78Blizzard]

26 minutes ago, dryslot said:

qpf bumped up this run.

100% more in this area than 18z run.

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

PM @dendrite  

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

100% more in this area than 18z run.

Are you saying our area doubled in qpf from 18z?  I didn’t segment away what’s falling from 0Z until it’s over but that doesn’t seem right.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

We back.

 

thanks @butterfish55 and @dendrite

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Southern Middlesex looks like a fine pace to be.  

I actually don’t hate where I am right now. Been rare to say that the last few years. 

[joey2002]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM looked actually somewhat healthy that run with the conveyors. Still not totally there like some of those zonked GFS runs but it’s much better. 

What do you think the approximate snow ratios might be for areas in Northern CT?  
 

[78Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Are you saying our area doubled in qpf from 18z?  I didn’t segment away what’s falling from 0Z until it’s over but that doesn’t seem right.

The 3k was similar.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, joey2002 said:

What do you think the approximate snow ratios might be for areas in Northern CT?  
 

8-10:1 in between bands .. 15-20:1 in the good banding .. Average ratios will depend how long you are under the banding.. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, joey2002 said:

What do you think the approximate snow ratios might be for areas in Northern CT?  
 

You have a bit of elevation too, right? That will prob help you in the first hour or two. I’d prob peg ratios for like 13 to 1 there but it wouldn’t surprise me if you got into a weenie band and went close to 16 or 18 to 1. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

8-10:1 in between bands .. 15-20:1 in the good banding .. Average ratios will depend how long you are under the banding.. 

or what he said…similar thinking 

[Prismshine Productions]

Reggie with another messenger shift

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The 3k was similar.

That’s so weird!  I’ll have to compare on a different screen.  On my phone it looks similar.

[Prismshine Productions]

Icon drier as well

[Prismshine Productions]

am I the only one thinking that the messenger shifts might be a bit overdone?