October 2024

[Allsnow]

Nothing on the models for the next two weeks 

 

 

dry dry dry 

[SACRUS]

 

53 / 45.   Near / low 70s.  Cool through Fri before warming up briefly Sat - mon.  Much cooler 10/15 - 10/17 first frosts inland perhaps low 40s metro.  Warmer by the 19 as ridge builds east otherwise the dry period remains in place.

 

[lee59]

Upper 40s here last night.

[SACRUS]

 

First week departures throuhg the 7:

JFK: +4.1
EWR: + 4.1
ISP: +3.3
NYC: +3.1
LGA: +1.9

[steve392]

Coolest morning I've experienced in a while. 49 degrees when I let the puppy out in our backyard at 7am.  

[uofmiami]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With the way we are continuing to dry out, it will be interesting to see if we could approach record warmth in late October when the big ridge out West finally comes east. 

 

Highest 850 anomalies are centered to our W, so Great Lakes area may approach record warmth it seems.

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 89 (200)
NYC: 87 (200&)
LGA: 89 (200&)
JFK: 90 (200&)

Lows:

EWR: 32 (1935)
NYC: 37 (1988)
LGA: 40 (1988)
JFK: 40 (2001)

Historical:

 

1871 - Prolonged drought and dessicating winds led to the great Chicago fire, the Peshtigo horror, and the Michigan fire holocaust. Fire destroyed more than seventeen thousand buildings killing more than 200 persons in the city of Chicago, while a fire consumed the town of Peshtigo WI killing more than 1100 persons. In Wisconsin, a million acres of land were burned, and in Michigan, 2.5 million acres were burned killing 200 persons. "Tornadoes of fire" generated by intense heat caused houses to explode in fire, and burned to death scores of persons seeking refuge in open fields. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1871: The Great Chicago Fire burns much of the city to the ground, fanned by strong southwest winds. An estimated 250 were killed. On the same night, forest fires swept through Peshtigo, Wisconsin. An estimated 1,500 to possibly as many as 2,500 dies as gale-force winds push flames across town. Severe drought blamed for tinder-dry conditions. 

1878: An estimated F3 tornado struck Monticello, Iowa, around 5:30 pm. The Catholic Church was demolished, along with several homes. The business portion of the town was comparatively uninjured. While no lives were lost, 11 people were injured. The German Church in Richland township was destroyed, along with other buildings in the surrounding county. A wind and hail storm occurred during the evening hours in Sigourney, Iowa, causing considerable damage. Fences and shade trees were blown down, and much glass was broken by hail, which fell in large stones. 

1901 - A deluge at Galveston, TX, produced nearly twelve inches of rain in about a six hour period. The rains came precisely thirteen months after the day of the famous Galveston hurricane disaster. (David Ludlum)

1919: An intense tornado moved through the town of Hoisington, 11 miles north of Great Bend, Kansas. It damaged or destroyed 60 homes which resulted in $200,000 in damages. Business papers and canceled checks were found at Lincoln, 55 miles to the northeast. 

 

1946: A minimal Category 1 hurricane made landfall over Bradenton, Florida, before tracking north-northeast across Tampa Bay. The storm was the last hurricane to make direct landfall in the Tampa Bay area.

1982 - An unusually early snowstorm hit the northern Black Hills of Wyoming and South Dakota. The storm produced up to 54 inches of snow, and winds as high as 70 mph. The snowfall was very much dependent upon topography. Rapid City, 20 miles away, received just a trace of snow. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the southeastern U.S. Thirty cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Madison WI with a reading of 22 degrees. The low of 28 degrees at Evansville IN was the coolest of record for so early in the season. Hot weather continued in the southwestern U.S. Phoenix AZ reported a record high of 104 degrees and a record tying 116 days of 100 degree weather for the year. Tucson AZ established an all-time record with 72 days of 100 degree weather for the year. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Snow was reported across parts of northern New England. Two inches blanketed Mount Snow VT. Warm weather continued in the northwestern U.S. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Stampede Pass WA exceeded their previous record for October by seven degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Morning lows in the 20s were reported from the Northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. International Falls MN and Marquette MI reported record lows of 22 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in central California as the Oakland Athletics won the American League pennant. San Luis Obispo CA reported a high of 99 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

[FPizz]

41 this morning

[SACRUS]

Coolest ais of the season so far is being forecast between the 15th / 17th.  Much warmer post that cool down on consecutive runs.

 

90% of the US remains dry in the next week outside Florida current storms then Milton.

 

[qg_omega]

Late October looks very warm, 80s aren’t done yet

[MANDA]

12 minutes ago, FPizz said:

41 this morning

Same here.  Felt great. 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Late October looks very warm, 80s aren’t done yet

 

[psv88]

45 this morning. I remember when I was a kid first week of October or so would be when you’d have the first days with highs struggling to reach 60 and lows dropping into the lower 40s. 
 

I don’t see any sub 60 highs for the next few weeks but lows should approach 40, so we are stepping down relatively close to normal schedule

[MANDA]

Chilly morning.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

10-28-76 was the last time that NYC dropped into the 20s in October. 
 

Data for October 28, 1976 through October 28, 1976
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	16
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	17
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	18
CT	DANBURY	COOP	20
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	20
NY	CARMEL	COOP	20
CT	WESTBROOK	COOP	20
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	20
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	21
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	21
CT	NORWALK GAS PLANT	COOP	22
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	22
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	23
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	23
NY	SUFFERN	COOP	23
CT	GROTON	COOP	24
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	24
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	24
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	24
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	24
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	25
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	25
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	25
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	26
NY	MARYKNOLL	COOP	26
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	27
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	27
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	27
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	28
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	28
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	28
NY	NEW YORK BOTANICAL GARDEN	COOP	28
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	29
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	29
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	29
CT	NEW HAVEN	COOP	29
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	29
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	29

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

With the way we are continuing to dry out, it will be interesting to see if we could approach record warmth in late October when the big ridge out West finally comes east. 

 

Looks like zonal flow?

[WX-PA]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

The average high in October is 70 at the beginning of the month to upper 50's by Halloween..So temps in the mid 60's are normal..October was really never cold.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

10-28-76 was the last time that NYC dropped into the 20s in October. 
 

Data for October 28, 1976 through October 28, 1976
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	16
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	17
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	18
CT	DANBURY	COOP	20
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	20
NY	CARMEL	COOP	20
CT	WESTBROOK	COOP	20
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	20
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	21
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	21
CT	NORWALK GAS PLANT	COOP	22
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	22
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	23
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	23
NY	SUFFERN	COOP	23
CT	GROTON	COOP	24
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	24
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	24
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	24
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	24
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	25
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	25
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	25
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	26
NY	MARYKNOLL	COOP	26
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	27
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	27
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	27
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	28
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	28
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	28
NY	NEW YORK BOTANICAL GARDEN	COOP	28
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	29
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	29
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	29
CT	NEW HAVEN	COOP	29
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	29
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	29

Memorable cold winter followed.  If I remember correctly after Hurricane Belle made a run up the east coast the pattern turned cool and steadily transitioned to cold as we moved through Fall.

[Big Jims Videos]

12z GFS gives us ZERO precip through the run lol

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Memorable cold winter followed.  If I remember correctly after Hurricane Belle made a run up the east coast the pattern turned cool and steadily transitioned to cold as we moved through Fall.

Yeah, Aug 76 into Jan 77 was the last time we had something resembling a LIA late summer into winter.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending Aug to Jan avg temp

1	1918-01-31	46.8	0
2	1888-01-31	47.0	0
3	1881-01-31	47.1	0
4	1884-01-31	47.2	0
5	1977-01-31	47.8	0
6	1877-01-31	47.9	2
-	1872-01-31	47.9	0
7	1883-01-31	48.5	0
-	1873-01-31	48.5	0
8	1904-01-31	48.7	2
-	1893-01-31	48.7	0
9	1887-01-31	48.9	0
10	1875-01-31	49.1	3

[lee59]

First frost of the season could be in store for our colder suburbs next week.

[donsutherland1]

The region will see its coolest air so far this season this week. Tomorrow will be cooler and then a reinforcing shot of even chillier air will arrive on Wednesday. New York City could see its first temperature below 50° since May 13th on Thursday or Friday.

On Wednesday evening, Hurricane Milton will make landfall on Florida's west coast. The storm, which regained Category 5 status, will likely make landfall as a Category 3 and perhaps Category 4 hurricane. It will bring a devastating storm surge inland. There remains a risk that the heavily populated Tampa ara could face some of the hurricane's worst impacts. However, areas south of Tampa now appear to be at greatest risk.

In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continued but had begun to fade. As of 4 pm MST, Phoenix had reached 107°, which broke the daily record of 104° from 1987. Phoenix has now set or tied daily record highs on fifteen consecutive days. The heat will continue to fade over the next few days.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

Weekly ENSO data remains unavailable due to the dirsuptive impact Hurricane Helene's floods had on NCEI in Asheville. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +15.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.415 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal).

 

[Stormlover74]

Many places in the mid 40s already 

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Many places in the mid 40s already 

55 and pleasant

[bluewave]

Yesterday was the 2nd latest first 40s of the season at ISP. This was due to the record easterly flow keeping the minimums up in September. This surface pressure pattern is finally reversing allowing some NW flow with the cooler temps. Now that that big high over New England has relaxed for a while it will allow a SW to W flow warm up later in October which we didn’t see much of over the summer due to all the onshore flow. The expanding drought to our West could allow highs on a few days to approach 80° which is near record levels in late October on some days at Newark like we saw last October. 
 

First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2018	06-12 (2018)	48	10-12 (2018)	49	121
2024	05-13 (2024)	42	10-08 (2024)	47	147
2023	06-08 (2023)	47	10-08 (2023)	47	121
2015	05-23 (2015)	48	10-02 (2015)	49	131
2021	06-01 (2021)	49	10-01 (2021)	49	121

 

[ForestHillWx]

47 here, bottom of the hill in Gladstone is 43. Elevation change of about 350 feet. Neat seeing the cold pool in the valleys. 

[lee59]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yesterday was the 2nd latest first 40s of the season at ISP. This was due to the record easterly flow keeping the minimums up in September. This surface pressure pattern is finally reversing allowing some NW flow with the cooler temps. Now that that big high over New England has relaxed for a while it will allow a SW to W flow warm up later in October which we didn’t see much of over the summer due to all the onshore flow. The expanding drought to our West could allow highs on a few days to approach 80° which is near record levels in late October on some days at Newark like we saw last October. 
 

First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2018	06-12 (2018)	48	10-12 (2018)	49	121
2024	05-13 (2024)	42	10-08 (2024)	47	147
2023	06-08 (2023)	47	10-08 (2023)	47	121
2015	05-23 (2015)	48	10-02 (2015)	49	131
2021	06-01 (2021)	49	10-01 (2021)	49	121

 

I was surprised Islip did not hit the 40s on September 9. They got to 50, I got down to 48 that night. As you mentioned the east wind probably had more of an affect on them.

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I was surprised Islip did not hit the 40s on September 9. They got to 50, I got down to 48 that night. As you mentioned the east wind probably had more of an affect on them.

The easterly flow resulted in numerous stations approaching their warmest September monthly minimum despite the average monthly temperature closer to normal. The effect was most obvious at JFK which set a new record warm minimum for September at 56°. Westchester only made it down to 49° which was 2nd warmest.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	53	0
2	2015	52	0
3	2018	51	0
4	2024	50	0
-	2023	50	0
5	2017	49	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	56	0
-	2015	56	0
3	2021	54	0
-	2018	54	0
-	2017	54	0
-	2002	54	0
-	1994	54	0
-	1968	54	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2018	51	0
2	2024	49	0
3	2008	48	0
-	2002	48	0
-	1999	48	2
-	1968	48	0

[SACRUS]

 

 

53 / 45 off a low of 43. Near / low 70s and sunny today.  Falling to the 40s metro tonight perhaps a few upper 30s inland.  Cooler Thu / Fri (AM)>  Warmer  Sat - Sun before the coolest period of the season arrives 10/15 - 10/17 first frosts outside of metro.  Beyond there warmer to potentially much warmer.  Overall drier period continues,

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (2011)
NYC: 86 (1916)
LGA: 85 (2011)
JFK: 87 (2011)

 

 

Lows:

EWR: 35 (1988)
NYC: 37 (1988)
LGA: 40 (1988)
JFK: 35 (2001)

 

Historical:

1804: The famous Snow Hurricane moved ashore near Atlantic City on this day. After briefly passing through Connecticut and into Massachusetts, cold air was entrained in the circulation with heavy snow falling between New York to southern Canada. Berkshires Massachusetts and Concord New Hampshire record two feet of snow with this hurricane. This storm produced the first observation of snow from a hurricane, but not the last. Hurricane Ginny of 1963 brought up to 18 inches (400 mm) of snow to portions of Maine. 

1903 - New York City was deluged with 11.17 inches of rain 24 hours to establish a state record. Severe flooding occurred in the Passaic Valley of New Jersey where more than fifteen inches of rain was reported. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1981 - The temperature at San Juan, Puerto Rico, soared to 98 degrees to establish an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Eighteen cities in the southeastern U.S. and the Middle Atlantic Coast Region reported record low temperatures for the date. Asheville NC dipped to 29 degrees, and the record low of 47 degrees at Jacksonville FL marked their fourth of the month. A second surge of cold air brought light snow to the Northern Plains, particularly the Black Hills of South Dakota. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Ten cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Hartford CT with a reading of 28 degrees. Snow continued in northern New England through the morning hours. Mount Washington NH reported five inches of snow. Warm weather continued in the western U.S. Los Angeles CA reported a record high of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the Upper Midwest. Thirteen cities in Ohio, Michigan and Indiana reported record low temperatures for the date, including Marquette MI with a reading of 20 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. as the San Francisco Giants won the National League pennant. San Jose CA reported a record high of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

2001: An unusually strong fall outbreak of tornadoes spawned at least 23 twisters across parts of Nebraska and Oklahoma. Hardest hit was the town of Cordell, OK, but a 22 minute lead time led to an amazingly low casualty count: only nine injuries and no fatalities.