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Significant Miller B Nor'easter Apr 3rd-4th OBS


wxeyeNH
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3 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

9” Bridgton just got to SR maybe 6”. This is gonna bust low here. Not snowing here currently. 

I'm never going to jump on anyone for coming up with a soundly reasoned forecast, as long as the headlines are messaging the right thing (i.e. heavy snow and power outages). 

If I had total control over the snow forecast yesterday I probably would've hedged closer to a foot rather than the 18. Like I mentioned with Will last evening, it seemed to evolve into more of a WAA snow, and it's hard to do more than a foot on pure WAA. 

We'll see how well the dry slot can fill in today. There are hints of moisture aloft moving back in, and cloud tops are cooling a little bit again, but I don't think we have another double digit period of snow. 

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8” new as of 8 AM, probably compacted.  Had 1-1/2” at 10:30 last night so big thump in early AM.  Light snow now, minimal wind.  30F.  It was much windier here yesterday before precip started.  Looks like a more impactful band is moving north after a little lull. NWS predicting another 3-8” in Montpelier through Sat AM, which would get us to upper end of predictions yesterday.  With April sun angle don’t see this playing out as depth on the ground.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Positive Depth Change was largely accurate AWT.

Like many products, good in some areas, not in others. It was terrible around here, with forecasts of 2-3" but we're easily 6+ OTG away from the coast even with compaction.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, in a marginal situation, its the path of least regret.

I think they do well for situations where the entire column is marginal with those 32-34 surface temps. Locally the temps stayed around 32-34 but it was a pure snow sounding above that. 

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Like many products, good in some areas, not in others. It was terrible around here, with forecasts of 2-3" but we're easily 6+ OTG away from the coast even with compaction.

Yeah, Not good here either.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I think they do well for situations where the entire column is marginal with those 32-34 surface temps. Locally the temps stayed around 32-34 but it was a pure snow sounding above that. 

Fact is, they were more accurate in totality.....perfect everywhere? No. But if you had the choice of 10:1 everywhere, Kuchera or +SDC, the latter would have yielded the most accurate forecast throughout the region. Are they too light in much of your area? Sure....but I would argue better than those idiotic 30" clown maps. Hardest hit areas have like a foot with what...3-4" more coming today?

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fact is, they were more accurate in totality.....perfect everywhere? No. But if you had the choice of 10:1 everywhere, Kuchera or +SDC, the latter would have yielded the most accurate forecast throughout the region. Are they too light in much of your area? Sure....but I would argue better than those idiotic 30" clown maps.

You might want to wait on finals 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fact is, they were more accurate in totality.....perfect everywhere? No. But if you had the choice of 10:1 everywhere, Kuchera or +SDC, the latter would have yielded the most accurate forecast throughout the region. Are they too light in much of your area? Sure....but I would argue better than those idiotic 30" clown maps.

30 burgers ship sailed when the mid level lows got strung out. You need a well organized secondary AND a stall/loop, and we just didn't have that here.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fact is, they were more accurate in totality.....perfect everywhere? No. But if you had the choice of 10:1 everywhere, Kuchera or +SDC, the latter would have yielded the most accurate forecast throughout the region. Are they too light in much of your area? Sure....but I would argue better than those idiotic 30" clown maps.

You mean your backyard . I wouldn't use them unless like Chris said marginal column

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You mean your backyard . I wouldn't use them unless like Chris said marginal column

No, I mean in the aggregate. The most accurate forecast would have been PDC throughout NE....10:1 and Kutchera were worse in CNE than PDC was in NNE. I'm not sure how you argue that. Is that the case every storm? No, but it was today.

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