Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Significant Miller B Nor'easter Apr 3rd-4th OBS


wxeyeNH
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

9” Bridgton just got to SR maybe 6”. This is gonna bust low here. Not snowing here currently. 

I'm never going to jump on anyone for coming up with a soundly reasoned forecast, as long as the headlines are messaging the right thing (i.e. heavy snow and power outages). 

If I had total control over the snow forecast yesterday I probably would've hedged closer to a foot rather than the 18. Like I mentioned with Will last evening, it seemed to evolve into more of a WAA snow, and it's hard to do more than a foot on pure WAA. 

We'll see how well the dry slot can fill in today. There are hints of moisture aloft moving back in, and cloud tops are cooling a little bit again, but I don't think we have another double digit period of snow. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8” new as of 8 AM, probably compacted.  Had 1-1/2” at 10:30 last night so big thump in early AM.  Light snow now, minimal wind.  30F.  It was much windier here yesterday before precip started.  Looks like a more impactful band is moving north after a little lull. NWS predicting another 3-8” in Montpelier through Sat AM, which would get us to upper end of predictions yesterday.  With April sun angle don’t see this playing out as depth on the ground.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Positive Depth Change was largely accurate AWT.

Like many products, good in some areas, not in others. It was terrible around here, with forecasts of 2-3" but we're easily 6+ OTG away from the coast even with compaction.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, in a marginal situation, its the path of least regret.

I think they do well for situations where the entire column is marginal with those 32-34 surface temps. Locally the temps stayed around 32-34 but it was a pure snow sounding above that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Like many products, good in some areas, not in others. It was terrible around here, with forecasts of 2-3" but we're easily 6+ OTG away from the coast even with compaction.

Yeah, Not good here either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I think they do well for situations where the entire column is marginal with those 32-34 surface temps. Locally the temps stayed around 32-34 but it was a pure snow sounding above that. 

Fact is, they were more accurate in totality.....perfect everywhere? No. But if you had the choice of 10:1 everywhere, Kuchera or +SDC, the latter would have yielded the most accurate forecast throughout the region. Are they too light in much of your area? Sure....but I would argue better than those idiotic 30" clown maps. Hardest hit areas have like a foot with what...3-4" more coming today?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fact is, they were more accurate in totality.....perfect everywhere? No. But if you had the choice of 10:1 everywhere, Kuchera or +SDC, the latter would have yielded the most accurate forecast throughout the region. Are they too light in much of your area? Sure....but I would argue better than those idiotic 30" clown maps.

You might want to wait on finals 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fact is, they were more accurate in totality.....perfect everywhere? No. But if you had the choice of 10:1 everywhere, Kuchera or +SDC, the latter would have yielded the most accurate forecast throughout the region. Are they too light in much of your area? Sure....but I would argue better than those idiotic 30" clown maps.

30 burgers ship sailed when the mid level lows got strung out. You need a well organized secondary AND a stall/loop, and we just didn't have that here.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fact is, they were more accurate in totality.....perfect everywhere? No. But if you had the choice of 10:1 everywhere, Kuchera or +SDC, the latter would have yielded the most accurate forecast throughout the region. Are they too light in much of your area? Sure....but I would argue better than those idiotic 30" clown maps.

You mean your backyard . I wouldn't use them unless like Chris said marginal column

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You mean your backyard . I wouldn't use them unless like Chris said marginal column

No, I mean in the aggregate. The most accurate forecast would have been PDC throughout NE....10:1 and Kutchera were worse in CNE than PDC was in NNE. I'm not sure how you argue that. Is that the case every storm? No, but it was today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...