Brian5671 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 3 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Good. The new river running through my backyard was getting a little low. I hope this is it for awhile-getting very old.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 If it's any consolation...beyond this week the ensembles are in near unanimous agreement on a more seasonal and dry pattern evolving as blocking breaks down. While this doesn't look like a torch signal...it is certainly warmer and drier. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 This is going to be one of the strongest closed lows that we have seen this time of year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is going to be one of the strongest closed lows that we have seen this time of year. Too bad we can't capitalize on this . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Just now, MJO812 said: Too bad we can't capitalize on this . This setup as modeled now wouldn't work in January let alone April 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is going to be one of the strongest closed lows that we have seen this time of year. Is there a big swing just beyond this by the 11th with bg ridge and warmth / first 80s 11 - 14? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 We should see some 70 degree weather by around the 9th or 10th of the month ... really looking forward to that. Miserable week this week, but at least the cool season vegetables in the garden will like this kind of weather. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 The SPC HREF should be interesting next few days as this could be an unusually convective system near the secondary low. So rainfall totals and winds may exceed what the globals are showing. Plenty of MUCAPE showing up on hi res NAM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 53 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: If it's any consolation...beyond this week the ensembles are in near unanimous agreement on a more seasonal and dry pattern evolving as blocking breaks down. While this doesn't look like a torch signal...it is certainly warmer and drier. I guarantee your post here is going to get more "likes" than any other post in this entire thread by anyone lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is going to be one of the strongest closed lows that we have seen this time of year. why does that look like a middle finger right in the middle of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 20 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: This setup as modeled now wouldn't work in January let alone April A location in WI will do better with snow then NNE now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: The SPC HREF should be interesting next few days as this could be an unusually convective system near the secondary low. So rainfall totals and winds may exceed what the globals are showing. Plenty of MUCAPE showing up on hi res NAM. this could be really bad for the trees. we have already seen some trees come down with previous windy rainy systems this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: A location in WI will do better with snow then NNE now NNE will probably be fine. The storm cutting north over MI allows that WAA to max out further west and the secondary to take over and lock in the cold. Might still be worth watching down to I-90, even in Boston I’d keep an eye open. Here of course it’s just another flavor of misery. Whatever can end this complete garbage pattern I’m down for. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Is there a big swing just beyond this by the 11th with bg ridge and warmth / first 80s 11 - 14? Depends on how much we can dry out after this week and reduce the onshore flow. The first 80° of the season will be later than average since 2010 due to all the clouds and record rainfall and onshore flow. But we should at least be able to make it back to around 70° by the 2nd week of April. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference Minimum 02-21 (2018) 09-25 (2010) 167 Mean 03-31 10-12 193 Maximum 04-18 (2015) 11-07 (2022) 231 2023 04-06 (2023) 83 10-28 (2023) 84 204 2022 04-14 (2022) 88 11-07 (2022) 81 206 2021 03-26 (2021) 84 10-20 (2021) 80 207 2020 03-20 (2020) 80 09-28 (2020) 81 191 2019 04-08 (2019) 80 10-07 (2019) 80 181 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231 2017 04-10 (2017) 82 10-21 (2017) 81 193 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 87 223 2015 04-18 (2015) 82 10-09 (2015) 81 173 2014 04-13 (2014) 83 09-28 (2014) 87 167 2013 04-09 (2013) 85 10-07 (2013) 80 180 2012 04-15 (2012) 80 10-05 (2012) 81 172 2011 03-18 (2011) 80 10-10 (2011) 85 205 2010 04-05 (2010) 81 09-25 (2010) 90 172 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 44 minutes ago, jm1220 said: NNE will probably be fine. The storm cutting north over MI allows that WAA to max out further west and the secondary to take over and lock in the cold. Might still be worth watching down to I-90, even in Boston I’d keep an eye open. Here of course it’s just another flavor of misery. Whatever can end this complete garbage pattern I’m down for. Unfortunately this IS the storm to end this garbage and misery lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 14 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Unfortunately this IS the storm to end this garbage and misery lol Thankfully it looks like this week is the beginning of the end of this horrific pattern. My little cousin’s little league season starts on Saturday. Hoping for decent weather from here on out for them 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Thankfully it looks like this week is the beginning of the end of this horrific pattern. My little cousin’s little league season starts on Saturday. Hoping for decent weather from here on out for them It won't be good weather for little league this weekend, too cool. I have at least 3 games for my son's travel baseball from Friday evening to Sunday morning, with more depending on how they do in tournament. Wish the warmer weather for April 8th onward would start sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Huge Blizzard for DC northward next week. Get ready. I'm buying a shovel and salt 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Huge Blizzard for DC northward next week. Get ready. I'm buying a shovel and salt Ok Joe Bastardi….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Huge Blizzard for DC northward next week. Get ready. I'm buying a shovel and salt the only thing in your forecast is disappointment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Damn no one knows what today is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: NNE will probably be fine. The storm cutting north over MI allows that WAA to max out further west and the secondary to take over and lock in the cold. Might still be worth watching down to I-90, even in Boston I’d keep an eye open. Here of course it’s just another flavor of misery. Whatever can end this complete garbage pattern I’m down for. Euro is very warm for NNE. 987 primary over the lakes. Huge storm WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Huge Blizzard for DC northward next week. Get ready. I'm buying a shovel and salt Your obligatory 4/1 post? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Damn no one knows what today is C'mon that was barely trying 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 10 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: the only thing in your forecast is disappointment i was talking about the Mets not the weather 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Results pretty much the same but this system is nothing like what was modeled 4-6 days ago. Only real difference in sensible weather will be much less wind and coastal effects around here. Significant rainfall and coastal effects (minor to some moderate beach erosion and tidal flooding) from onshore flow will still occur albeit on a lesser scale that what was originally modeled. Yet another 4-6 day long range fail. I'm not suggesting a "snow fail" as that was never really in the cards for this sub forum. More of a very deep, slow moving coastal low fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 14 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: i was talking about the Mets not the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 It's waaaaaay out in la la land but some pretty good consensus and signals for a strongish mid lattitude cyclone mid month moving NE from the lower plains. With the anticipated breakdown in blocking and a stronger SE ridge/War signal, it is possible that this is a significant severe weather setup for the central US and quite possibly the Ern seaboard. It's not worth putting details to paper yet but it's likely the first opportunity at a true Springtime severe weather cyclone. As a severe weather enthusiast myself, I'm always looking for that first opprtunity of the season. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 54 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Huge Blizzard for DC northward next week. Get ready. I'm buying a shovel and salt where are you getting this from lol I've heard of wishcasting, but this more like pretendcasting lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: where are you getting this from lol I've heard of wishcasting, but this more like pretendcasting lol April 1st pal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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