#NoPoles Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Curious how it plays out where I live. The past elevation events- half I got accumulating snow, and half I got white rain. I really have no idea how this unfolds. All those maps being posted snow a jackpot right over my area, but do I have enough elevation to get accumulation? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Congrats bear dens. Get this out of the way so we can enjoy warmer weather next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Perfect setup for the skiers in the Mtns. Deep base with foot plus of upslope. Goggle tans and beers flowing midweek with deep Bluebird days. Man I miss my March adventures. Took until my 40s until I realized spring mid week was my stoke. After the couple of warm sunny days a return to winter conditions the 16th on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 9 hours ago, powderfreak said: Southeast Adirondacks getting the upslope cooling from forced parcel ascent in the marginal & lowest few thousand vertical feet. Same with eastern VT hills and Spine during the SE flow phase. It’s like the tide coming in on SE flow, then the tide going out on NW flow. Some zones do better on each specific flow/tide, others can hit on both. Thats the forecasting challenge. MRG forecast from Pete wow Snow consistency appears pretty wet below 3000 feet during the first part of this event. There is a substantial column of boundary level air indicated to be in the 28-33 degree range on model cross sections through midday Sunday. Keep in mind that heavy wet thump snow can both make travel conditions very treacherous and cause power outages, especially when combined with wind. Conditions begin to change late Sunday as colder air begins to settle across the high country as the flow becomes northwesterly. This is ultimately what will separate this storm from the pack this year as the setup appears outstanding for a continuation of colder snow across the mountains Sunday evening, night and Monday. The flow looks great and the storm will be slow enough to depart to allow lingering moisture to just hammer the northern Greens with continuous cold snow. Here are my expectations on snow totals period by period. Please keep in mind that this is a very elevation sensitive event and if you're reading from the Champlain Valley, your outcome will be very different and considerably less snowy than the one forecasted for the mountains. Saturday Night: Mixed precip changing to snow - thump potential toward dawn. 6-12 inches mostly wet snow Sunday Day: Heavy snow early, possible lull midday or afternoon. 3-6 inches mostly wet snow Sunday Night: Snow occasionally heavy. 6-12 inches of powder Monday: Snow or snow showers. Another 6-12 inches ! Total storm accumulations by Monday evening: 21-42 inches 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Spring as far the models can see 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Spring as far the models can see Kev I understand your want but man if there ever was a bad model read of yours this is it . 5 day temp departures in Celsius. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 8 hours ago, SnowLover22 said: Most of the snow will be occurring at night so that will help with accumulations. This is probably a more realistic map. No, shows over a foot down to the Lake. I think you want to be 1500 feet plus for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 New 6 z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Kev I understand your want but man if there ever was a bad model read of yours this is it . 5 day temp departures in Celsius. Mid to late next week is looking warmer on guidance down there. No need to go out to d10-15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats bear dens. Get this out of the way so we can enjoy warmer weather next week. Beware the Ides of March, with Spring sun and banana hammocks galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Mid to late next week is looking warmer on guidance down there. No need to go out to d10-15. Let him go . It’s useless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 I think it's kind of exciting, at least there's gonna be some snow up north....something to watch and track Sure feels and looks like a snow sky even here although I know it's just rain here but at least it feels a little wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Mid to late next week is looking warmer on guidance down there. No need to go out to d10-15. 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let him go . It’s useless Except you said never ending spring. We all knew Thursday and Friday were warm. As we said over and over and over the pattern changes after the 16th. You enjoy this week but ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Mid to late next week is looking warmer on guidance down there. No need to go out to d10-15. Nothing changed not any warmer than has been forecast. Enjoy your snow tonight tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nothing changed not any warmer than has been forecast. Enjoy your snow tonight tomorrow Won’t be much here and it has gotten warmer on guidance for late week…less marine taint. It’ll cool down beyond that, but we’ll revisit in a week to see just how much. A few days of NW flow with no pack or frost with a little BN 850s won’t result in that much cold east of the hills. I actually hope we get closer to normal because I have a lot of buds swelling and ready to open on my chestnuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 9 Author Share Posted March 9 It's fine to show LR anomalies, but I'd rather the overall trends as we move forward. I'd wager the "cold" shot(s) will tend moderate a bit as we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: It's fine to show LR anomalies, but I'd rather the overall trends as we move forward. I'd wager the "cold" shot(s) will tend moderate a bit as we get closer. Agreed but not sure I see any big sustained torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: It's fine to show LR anomalies, but I'd rather the overall trends as we move forward. I'd wager the "cold" shot(s) will tend moderate a bit as we get closer. That’s what has happened all winter. It happened with the Dec cold shot which vanished.. Jan cold shot ended up normal and the vaunted epic Feb ended up one week and really was normal averaged out . Same thing in Morch coming except higher sun angle and a torched , snowless Canada, ice free Great Lakes. Do the math …. Whale em up 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: New 6 z Euro Shows 4-6 here but I’m suspicious and let’s see what mesos say today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Perfect setup for the skiers in the Mtns. Deep base with foot plus of upslope. Goggle tans and beers flowing midweek with deep Bluebird days. Man I miss my March adventures. Took until my 40s until I realized spring mid week was my stoke. After the couple of warm sunny days a return to winter conditions the 16th on. It's the absolute best. I don't ski anymore but If I was going to give it another go it would be on a day like you described. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 6 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: It's fine to show LR anomalies, but I'd rather the overall trends as we move forward. I'd wager the "cold" shot(s) will tend moderate a bit as we get closer. Probably more likely than not. That's what's been happening with these supposed torch long rangers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Except you said never ending spring. We all knew Thursday and Friday were warm. As we said over and over and over the pattern changes after the 16th. You enjoy this week but ... Yeah a couple days in the '60s is not what I would describe as a torch. Sure, it's good bit above climate norms but it's not like anyone's going to be hitting the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Up to 42" at MRG, huh? Big ol' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 6 minutes ago, kdxken said: Yeah a couple days in the '60s is not what I would describe as a torch. Sure, it's good bit above climate norms but it's not like anyone's going to be hitting the beach. +25 but not a torch, just delusional Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 9 Author Share Posted March 9 Average highs are mid-U40's by mid-March, it'd be more like +15-20, but yeah that's a torch too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Yeah we need to keep normals in perspective. ORH has 4 70+ readings in their history through 3/14 and they’re all in the 2000s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Who’s ready for another 2-4” of rain ?! The amount of water pouring and flowing out of hillsides around here is amazing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who’s ready for another 2-4” of rain ?! The amount of water pouring and flowing out of hillsides around here is amazing Looks overdone compared to other guidance. Let’s hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 1 hour ago, mreaves said: I'm going a sloppy 1" or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now