March 2024

[batmansascientist]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

can't blame it on el nino either since last year had a la nina.

I didn't realize April 2023 was so wet-- I only remember the two day heatwave we had with the temperatures in the low 90s.

Rained 4.8" on the 29th and 30th. It's one of those things, it was all in big bunches and right at the end, so it was mostly a dry month (From April 1 - April 21 there were only 2 days of measurable rain and it totaled .4").  

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nam is west with lots of rain for the area 

All day long too

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It least some of the higher elevations were able to reach average snowfall with the recent storm. 
 

 

Did you notice that all that all the accumulating snow was well north of us?  Even in this so-called colder pattern, the snow didn't even make it into Boston.  It was in the upper midwest to northern new england.  This is what shows me that March is truly a spring month.  We can really only count on snow in January and February.  Any other month is a coinflip, even in a colder pattern.

 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

All day long too

Ends early Friday morning 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

All day long too

I'm just going to say it before anyone else can lol.

In January or February this could have been a 36 hour snowstorm.

But for some reason in winter our storms move much more quickly and never last this long.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Ends early Friday morning 

Would have been a 36 hour snowstorm in winter.  But in winter these storms always move faster than light.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, batmansascientist said:

Rained 4.8" on the 29th and 30th. It's one of those things, it was all in big bunches and right at the end, so it was mostly a dry month (From April 1 - April 21 there were only 2 days of measurable rain and it totaled .4").  

Good point-- this is how you can get a very hot summer with lots of rain too-- 1983 and 2011 were great examples of this.

 

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

BUST

Yep no surprise that the models were wrong with that east trend that they had for a little while. Another super soaker tomorrow, ugh. I assume opening day for the Mets will be moved to Friday. 

[Brian5671]

In the end go west you'll rarely be wrong

[GaWx]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Where was this in Janaury?

1) Only 19% of Januaries 1981-2023 had -NAO (sub -0.25). -NAOs were three times more frequent in Jan during 1955-80 (58%)!

2) This 19% of Jans with -NAO 1981-2023 contrasts with 35% of Aprils during the same years.

3) Actually though, the GEFS chart shows a forecasted -NAO in April similar to that of early to mid Jan. Jan 15-21 near the end of that -NAO was the coldest week of the winter along with two snows.

NAO monthlies:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1) Only 19% of Januaries 1981-2023 had -NAO (sub -0.25). -NAOs were three times more frequent in Jan during 1955-80 (58%)!

2) This 19% of Jans with -NAO 1981-2023 contrasts to 35% of Aprils.

3) Actually though, the GEFS chart shows a forecasted -NAO in April similar to that of early to mid Jan. Jan 15-21 was the coldest week of the winter along with two snows.

Check out May too, it's probably even higher than April.

[MJO812]

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Check out May too, it's probably even higher than April.

Indeed, 47% of Mays 1981-2023 had sub -0.25 NAO. Also, 47% of Junes and 44% of Julys.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Indeed, 47% of Mays 1981-2023 had sub -0.25 NAO. Also, 47% of Junes and 44% of Julys.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

So, -NAO aren't becoming less common, they are only becoming less common in winter and early spring.

Somewhere around 50% is what should be expected with how the index is constructed, so rather than assuming they are getting more common in late spring and summer, they are probably becoming less common in winter and early spring.

 

[jm1220]

The NAM snow is fun to look at but won’t happen at least near the city. Maybe far northern areas in the hills. The RGEM 12z which hasn’t been sniffing glue went west a little also but no snow. 

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So, -NAO aren't becoming less common, they are only becoming less common in winter and early spring.

Somewhere around 50% is what should be expected with how the index is constructed, so rather than assuming they are getting more common in late spring and summer, they are probably becoming less common in winter and early spring.

 

 1. Accommodating for calling -0.24 to +0.24 neutral, I estimate 42% of all months to be expected to be -NAO. 

2. In addition to becoming much less common during winter since 1981, they actually have become more common in summer since 2007. @bluewave has posted about a theory that the increased frequency in summer is related to AGW/CC (I think related to increased melting of ice but not sure).

[bluewave]

47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

In the end go west you'll rarely be wrong

Not surprising given the continuing record WAR and SE Ridge patterns since the 15-16 super El Niño.

Near to record 500mb heights for Canadian Maritimes

 

[Superstorm93]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Where was this in Janaury?

 

On every run of the ECMWF weeklies in the extended range 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

On every run of the ECMWF weeklies in the extended range 

This is true 

[uofmiami]

54 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

In the end go west you'll rarely be wrong

Models seem to tick E 48hrs prior then the next day, 24hrs in, move back W.  Has been a common occurrence of late.

[Brian5671]

40 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

On every run of the ECMWF weeklies in the extended range 

Hopefully the weeklies are banned next winter-the last 2-3 yrs they have shown the "big pattern" in the LR only to bust horribly.

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hopefully the weeklies are banned next winter-the last 2-3 yrs they have shown the "big pattern" in the LR only to bust horribly.

I wish I had a dollar for every time they showed a +PNA/-EPO/-WPO/-AO/-NAO/50-50 Low pattern in the long range since 2016

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

0.001% chance of that happening 

[MJO812]

Just now, snowman19 said:

0.001% chance of that happening 

Yep 

[Allsnow]

Huge batch of rain sw of phl will be moving in late this afternoon 

[Neblizzard]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

0.001% chance of that happening 

Good give you credit where it’s due, you did good this winter. Congrats. 

[bluewave]

57 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Huge batch of rain sw of phl will be moving in late this afternoon 

Some thunderstorms earlier in that batch.

 

 

[Superstorm93]

Some thundah reports out in PA with this slug of cold rain. These dreary days are the absolute worst. 

[Brian5671]

Wonder if upton issues flood watches-ground is saturated...

[Snowlover11]

congrats delaware river, pouring over it