Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’m mildly concerned about a day of clouds.

Looks like it should be a good one to raise spirits in SNE. Everyone has been so beaten down this winter. Would be nice to get some positivity going for the masses.

 

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

probably tomorrow start paying closer attention to snow growth, lift, snow ratios, etc. I feel like there are going to be alot of challenges with this one. Several red flags and several green flags (or whatever is used to refer to something good lol). 

SOP looks good for the moment.  I'm conservatively going 4-6" here. My area up through S VT/NH gets saved by a pretty expansive precipitation shield moving into the confluence.  Southern streamer is bringing decent moisture but don't want to see any trends weaker with that because for my area sheared = screwed. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I'm not going to get too worked up in either direction because as @weatherwizsaid, need to see where that best fronto sets up and might not know that for another day or so.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm not going to get too worked up in either direction because as @weatherwizsaid, need to see where that best fronto sets up and might not know that for another day or so.

True. 

[CoastalWx]

I think best snow might be above H7 for a time. So maybe look at H7 warm front and think a bit north of that.

[ineedsnow]

ICON north

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

ICON Kuchie.

[NEPASnow]

its always been the northern most of the models, or is our confluence going away?

[CoastalWx]

Could have ingested a lot of Hefeweizen.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

True. 

 

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think best snow might be above H7 for a time. So maybe look at H7 warm front and think a bit north of that.

Couldn't care less about jackpots, just want to see a period of +SN, because in reality, that in and of itself, can be a rarity some winters.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could have ingested a lot of Hefeweizen.

Folks need to see solutions within 48 hours of go-time.  Still several days to go; it feels like we’ve been tracking the period for weeks.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, NEPASnow said:

its always been the northern most of the models, or is our confluence going away?

Some models moved towards more confluence today.  Goalposts will be much more defined by 12z solutions tomorrow. Better sampling of all the players involved.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

That axis of goodies on the latest ICON Kuchera is making me think dirty thoughts of DEC 2020. Just needs a little more tilt and about 3 times the QPF and bam! Easy-Peasy. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could have ingested a lot of Hefeweizen.

Summer sunshine beer, ICON has probably been hitting the Doppelbock.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

That axis of goodies on the latest ICON Kuchera is making me think dirty thoughts of DEC 2020. Just needs a little more tilt and about 3 times the QPF and bam! Easy-Peasy. 

Moving way to fast for big QPF.  Probably a high end max of 1.5"LE somewhere in SNE and that might be pushing it.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Summer sunshine beer, ICON has probably been hitting the Doppelbock.  

How much human input is needed to run these models? Is there a bunch of German dudes sitting around at 430 am getting plastered?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

How much human input is needed to run these models? Is there a bunch of German dudes sitting around at 430 am getting plastered?

You know, good question, I don't really know what goes on behind the scenes in the weather model world. 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Moving way to fast for big QPF.  Probably a high end max of 1.5"LE somewhere in SNE and that might be pushing it.

Yeah, that's the unfortunate truth of it. I do think somewhere has a real chance at 20" though. Not widespread by any means of course.

[ineedsnow]

GFS crushing

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS crushing

Go on...

[NotSureWeather]

978 basically at the BM on GFS.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Go on...

kuchie is actually lower in some spots higher in others but here the 10 to 1

[ORH_wxman]

Man that GFS run gets a tiny bit of partial phase action late in the game which just nukes almost all of SNE 

[Ginx snewx]

3 to 4 per hour bands on the GFS

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’d like to lock the gfs. Thanks 

[cleetussnow]

Booooing

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

978 basically at the BM on GFS.

That would work for many.

[ineedsnow]

CMC huge bump north but still south of everything

[dryslot]

Slowly ticking away 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Hammer time, even gives NYC some love.

[dendrite]

Even pushes warning criteria up here. Maybe a little fronto action early before it nukes out SE of here?