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Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh, and just in case the GFS is actually correct, letting ya know now I will not be on here posting during that deform band that drops 12" in 6 hours over me, I will be out playing in it.  

this is as split as flow can ever get lmao

gfs_uv250_namer_65.thumb.png.a55a254ba74f955d5f596df625a82e40.png

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4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is as split as flow can ever get lmao

gfs_uv250_namer_65.thumb.png.a55a254ba74f955d5f596df625a82e40.png

Ya everything’s on track. Everything’s been said.  Feb 10-15 is the transition period.  Gfs just showed how it’s possible to score in that window but the wave on the gfs is actually the wave break that tanks the nao and sets off an even better look after. From Feb 15 probably well into March we are looking at what is the absolute best long wave pattern for mid Atlantic snow that there is.  We are going to be tracking multiple threats soon. I’m sure of it. We just have to be patient and wait for things to get into range.  

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11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is as split as flow can ever get lmao

gfs_uv250_namer_65.thumb.png.a55a254ba74f955d5f596df625a82e40.png

Well that's a decent look for a few reasons. Let's break down the positives

1. Jet streaming across the pacific ends up breaking off, with storminess/moisture moving through north Mexico

2. That storminess takes on a STJ look, with storminess accompanying that jet streak across the south and mid-atlantic, which will obviously lead to an active weather pattern of some sorts

3. Ridging over west coast (+PNA) must lead to a trough on the downside of that, which could get caught up in the jet streak

4. There's some low pressure around Newfoundland, and high pressure ridging south of Greenland, all of which could help lead to a "blockier" scenario

Let's break down the negatives

1. The western ridge isn't in the most ideal position, with the highest anomalies being just offshore the west coast

2. High pressure isn't anchored in southeast Canada, which is arguably the best spot to reinforce cold air to meet up with this stormy look

3. Due to the ridge axis being right off the west coast, the trough would likely be over central US, giving a chance for heights to rise along east coast. That would help us avoid suppression, but *could* lead to some inland/coastal huggers if this look were to verify 

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The SBFI is trending highly positive and potentially into historic territory right around 2/15 as well. The split beer can flow between 3 fridges will mean only 1 thing… :snowing: 

 

ETA: Scraff Beer Fridge Index for those that don’t know. Lol

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4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

The SBFI is trending highly positive and potentially into historic territory right around 2/15 as well. The split beer can flow between 3 fridges will mean only 1 thing… :snowing: 

 

ETA: Scraff Beer Fridge Index for those that don’t know. Lol

But the Laughing Cow!!!  Need that to truly have an epic SBFI (gotta have some food!), and you'll be Jebdrinking like it's 2009-10! :lol:  (But you might be doing that already!)

(ETA:  3 fridges?  That might induce a triple-phased-fridger!)

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6 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

But the Laughing Cow!!!  Need that to truly have an epic SBFI (gotta have some food!), and you'll be Jebdrinking like it's 2009-10! :lol:  (But you might be doing that already!)

(ETA:  3 fridges?  That might induce a triple-phased-fridger!)

Still haven't figured out your old handle.  Looking for a good PI to hire in the Bethesda area.

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58 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

It’s the exact opposite course to take.  5 days and inside should be enhanced, not the 10+ make pretend 

Well if, as some speculate the Control is upgraded in resolution then you wouldn't loose much if anything in the short term and in theory you could get better long-range performance.  I know you're not particularly interested in that but maybe that is their plan.

I also wonder if their research scientists believe that there isn't much point in trying to increase the op resolution any further with current measurement technologies.  One might suspect that with chaos and whatnot, at a certain point increasing spatial resolution just leads to higher resolution noise.  They might think they'll get more bang for their buck (euro) by improving the ensembles algorithms.

NWP is a fascinating subject to me I wish there was more literature on it that was accessible to an educated lay person.

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6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Well if, as some speculate the Control is upgraded in resolution then you wouldn't loose much if anything in the short term and in theory you could get better long-range performance.  I know you're not particularly interested in that but maybe that is their plan.

I also wonder if their research scientists believe that there isn't much point in trying to increase the op resolution any further with current measurement technologies.  One might suspect that with chaos and whatnot, at a certain point increasing spatial resolution just leads to higher resolution noise.  They might think they'll get more bang for their buck (euro) by improving the ensembles algorithms.

NWP is a fascinating subject to me I wish there was more literature on it that was accessible to an educated lay person.

Yeah I've always had this (noob) question of whether a higher resolution model could "trick itself" by aggressively identifying noise (smaller features) and failing to smooth those out. But I guess that's just a convective feedback loop?

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52 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

4 out of 20 members of CMC Ens have snow reaching here Feb. 5/6. Two have a liquid explosion. Therefore, 10% chance of a liquid explosion. That's how this works.

2Yv4txl.png

What do I have to do to get ens 15 to work?

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The CFS is in its wheelhouse of higher predictive scoring. 

I can certainly see this as the look after Feb 10 to the 15th. 

Based on the look overall the anomalies may be rather severe after Feb 15 th 

 

GFGOQ0yWIAAsrRt.thumb.png.4e9c472b2fbbeb4191c795e4d7e56671.png

 

 

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From Tomer , here is his update from 5 days ago, so keep that in mind.  He seems bullish for a Moderate to Major Mid Atlantic Snowstorm 

January 25 Update I typically like to provide general windows for snow potentials once the picture becomes somewhat clearer; in the following days since this post, I feel increasingly confident in narrowing down a potential window between around February 15-25 for the peak potential of a moderate-major Mid Atlantic and Northeast snowstorm, though a low potential exists as early as the 2nd week of February.

 

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21 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yea hopefully any energy undercuts that ridge and heads east and doesn’t want to close off or form a Rex block or get stuck under there.

Even if it comes in pieces, we should do fine.. global precipitation is way above average, #2 was Jan 2016. 

Too early to start a storm thread for Feb 17-18? 

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9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is a sick blocking signal for this range

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom_7day-8646400.thumb.png.5f94a6c3c4422e55cb0580cd8b92834f.png

Day-um!  Can't ask for a more classic setup, and I'm glad to see blocking coming into play even before this extended ensemble range.

If we can't get that to work, then we're looking at going full Offenbach with "The Tales of (PSU)Hoffman"!!!

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1 hour ago, frd said:

From Tomer , here is his update from 5 days ago, so keep that in mind.  He seems bullish for a Moderate to Major Mid Atlantic Snowstorm 

January 25 Update I typically like to provide general windows for snow potentials once the picture becomes somewhat clearer; in the following days since this post, I feel increasingly confident in narrowing down a potential window between around February 15-25 for the peak potential of a moderate-major Mid Atlantic and Northeast snowstorm, though a low potential exists as early as the 2nd week of February.

 

Feb 15-25 the new Feb 5/6

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40 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Folks. This is it. This is our best shot at a KU in 8 years. 

Very well could be. I think the -NAO/AO strength and position will be key for realizing higher potential. But even if those aren’t perfect, still should be chances for MECS type events.

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Very well could be. I think the -NAO/AO strength and position will be key for realizing higher potential. But even if those aren’t perfect, still should be chances for MECS type events.

I know there are sorta definitions for SECS/MECS/HECS but we need a forum wide consensus. I feel like if you polled six people here they’d give you different numbers.

fwiw… SECS is widespread 8”. MECS 1’. HECS 18”+
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