Shad Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 8 minutes ago, stormy said: If the GFS 24 hr. trend continues the 12z run will have precipitation up into central Virginia. Surface and 850 temps. would be borderline. Im less concerned about precip but more about temps......was interested to hear what others thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 The Feb 4-5 thing seems like a loser. You get the ULL to trend north enough for a storm to come to us, it's too warm. If the ULL is too far south, we get missed to the south...by another rainstorm. Where is the upside again? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The Feb 4-5 thing seems like a loser. You get the ULL to trend north enough for a storm to come to us, it's too warm. If the ULL is too far south, we get missed to the south...by another rainstorm. Where is the upside again? Upside is what the CMC showed yesterday. But I think that path is closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Upside is what the CMC showed yesterday. But I think that path is closing. LOL, I didn't even know the 12z CMC from yesterday showed anything. I just took a look. That looks...complicated. And we know how well we do with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: LOL, I didn't even know the 12z CMC from yesterday showed anything. I just took a look. That looks...complicated. And we know how well we do with that. I'm all for the complicated CMC look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 JB is now talking about a delay while the MJO goes through 7. Still thinks we get there but after the 10th now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: LOL, I didn't even know the 12z CMC from yesterday showed anything. I just took a look. That looks...complicated. And we know how well we do with that. Perhaps complicated is all we have left to chase anymore? I don't recall the last simple "moisture over-running cold air in place" giving us an easy area-wide 6" - 10" scenario. Maybe Jan. 22 was that for a lot of you, but not us up north of 695. We haven't had a classic "simple" over-running event of note in quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: JB is now talking about a delay while the MJO goes through 7. Still thinks we get there but after the 10th now. lol I brought this up like 2 weeks ago, he just never admits anything until there is no possible way to avoid it anymore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: lol I brought this up like 2 weeks ago, he just never admits anything until there is no possible way to avoid it anymore. the winter is pretty much boiling down to can we get one great storm and one more decent ones. Still think we that can happen but one of those storms need to happen before Feb 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Ji said: the winter is pretty much boiling down to can we get one great storm and one more decent ones. Still think we that can happen but one of those storms need to happen before Feb 20 If we get to Feb 10 and we aren't tracking a high level threat it's time to hit the panic button 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 If we get to Feb 10 and we aren't tracking a high level threat it's time to hit the panic button Seems like a tall task honestly. Going to start preparing my panic so I’m in peak form by the 10th 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If we get to Feb 10 and we aren't tracking a high level threat it's time to hit the panic button Same page. It ain't over till it's over, but the fat lady is starting to warm up her vocal chords... is where my head's at now. I'm glad I milked the wintry week by taking pics, videos, going sledding with the little one (despite being sick at the time). I have a bunch of reels I could re-watch all year. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 we went from potentially insane torrid stretch to getting ready to panic in like three days? everything is still on track for the second half of the month into early March 11 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Same page. It ain't over till it's over, but the fat lady is starting to warm up her vocal chords... is where my head's at now. I'm glad I milked the wintry week by taking pics, videos, going sledding with the little one (despite being sick at the time). I have a bunch of reels I could re-watch all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Seems like a tall task honestly. Going to start preparing my panic so I’m in peak form by the 10th that's still 12 days away, we better have something tangible in our sights by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: we went from potentially insane torrid stretch to panic in like three days? everything is still on track for the second half of the month into early March Tbf I don't think most of us are panicking outright. We're just starting to see what's really under the hood (using Bob Chill's words) behind the smoothed H5 means. A week ago, or even a few days ago, it was looking like the fun would begin around Feb 10. Now we're looking at Feb 14-15, and the window of opportunity is starting to get narrower. The clock is starting to run out on us, is what we cannot deny. Sure, we could go on a 2-week heater between Feb 20 and March 5 and beat climo by a large margin - that can still happen, and I WANT it to happen. But again, I wouldn't be surprised if that window gets narrower and narrower with time and we score only one moderate event until the next wave of warmth, by which time it's over or nearly over. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, Terpeast said: Tbf I don't think most of us are panicking outright. We're just starting to see what's really under the hood (using Bob Chill's words) behind the smoothed H5 means. A week ago, or even a few days ago, it was looking like the fun would begin around Feb 10. Now we're looking at Feb 14-15, and the window of opportunity is starting to get narrower. The clock is starting to run out on us, is what we cannot deny. Sure, we could go on a 2-week heater between Feb 20 and March 5 and beat climo by a large margin - that can still happen, and I WANT it to happen. But again, I wouldn't be surprised if that window gets narrower and narrower with time and we score only one moderate event until the next wave of warmth, by which time it's over or nearly over. I think it was always sorta between the 10-15th and it got narrowed down closer to the 15th. I also think people underestimate how much can happen in three weeks. most prolific periods, when they do happen, don't actually last for that long 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 it would also be different if you were in NE or even NYC. some of you can reach or even break climo in one storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it would also be different if you were in NE or even NYC. some of you can reach or even break climo in one storm Yeah, I still think we have a shot at beating climo and all it takes is one storm. NYC & north are SOL at this point, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, Terpeast said: Yeah, I still think we have a shot at beating climo and all it takes is one storm. NYC & north are SOL at this point, though. ehhhh NYC has pulled comebacks like that before. we've had periods where we've gotten 30" in 3-4 weeks. north into CT? really hard sell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, I still think we have a shot at beating climo and all it takes is one storm. NYC & north are SOL at this point, though. We could probably trip into "beating" climo (climo being a median of 15 inches here) with a couple advisory events. But as far as beating the average? If this isn't a KU pattern, how are we gonna do that in one storm? Now I need clarity on the hecs, mecs and becs terminology...how many inches are associated with each category? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: we went from potentially insane torrid stretch to getting ready to panic in like three days? everything is still on track for the second half of the month into early March There's 2 separate schools of positive winter thoughts/discussion happenin and it can be hard to filter lol. I think most everyone agrees that getting no more snowfall is far less likely than getting 1 (or dare I say 2) additional accumulating snowfalls. More is always better lol but I don't see how we don't add to our totals without a complete reversal of how we currently see late Feb followed by a shitblinds March. Nobody is canceling that except for the notorious Schleprocks we have around here goin' all wowzee wowzee woo woo (wah wah lol). Where things are degrading is big storm optimism. We know our yards real well here. Uphill climo starts in earnest around the 3rd week of Feb and then big anomalous patterns are required in March. Doesn't mean we can't or won't get shellacked but history has a lot of arguments about a big finish once we cross into that 3rd week. The ironic thing this year is that even if we were to get a single 12" storm in late Feb, the winter appeal of our Jan magic week will put it to shame. Lol. Kids were sledding packed powder for 7 straight days with full coverage. South slopes took forever to go brown. 12" on Feb 23rd? Man, you better have your camera ready and take first run on the sledding hill cuz that appeal will last 48 hours tops and will likely be potatoes within 24 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Nice southern rainstorm ongoing on the GFS. Let's see if the rain can make it north to us. I hate it here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Actually, western NC is getting a beatdown so far. We're below freezing with some CAD, but..we all know how this is gonna go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Yeah, we're gonna miss it just south...but it was cold enough. Of course. We had the CAD...but not the precip. Agonizing. Good news...still a ways out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I can't wait till it comes north only for the CAD to be too dry and we get nothing before the WAA comes in and gives us rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, we're gonna miss it just south...but it was cold enough. Of course. We had the CAD...but not the precip. Agonizing. Good news...still a ways out! It’s really come north a ton in the last 24 hours. Not sure it’s done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, notvirga! said: It’s really come north a ton in the last 24 hours. Not sure it’s done 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 With the way things are going and keep changing, I have a feeling Imma drop the F word at some point, only for future runs to pull the rug out from under us. We gotta prepare for it all. And I'm here to guide you safely through it guys. You're welcome. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, notvirga! said: It’s really come north a ton in the last 24 hours. Not sure it’s done Yeah, it does look better in comparison to prior runs, so there's some hope yet. I actually don't want to see a flush hit until like hour 84 if I'm being honest. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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