Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,540
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    clydes6
    Newest Member
    clydes6
    Joined

Jan 18-19 Storm Threat: Bob Chill made me do it


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

This event kills me because i truly think we were so close to a MECS. Look at the pac piece that migrates towards the coast around 60 hours on the models, had that not existed and the ridge was able to expand or hold firm during the event I really believe something like one of those older GFS runs could have happened. We’ll have more chances in Feb. gonna try to recharge my energy over the next 2 weeks. I got sick prior to Tuesday event and I’m still not great so haven’t been able to enjoy them as much as I normally would.


.

  • Sad 6
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So...JB did REALLY analog this to PD 1979.  But we have to be fair, he said he is NOT calling for 2-3 feet, just 12-18"!  

We met him at one of our conferences Buff and engaging guy with nice pretty wife but he’s over exuberant . Randolph Leggings -was that Phillie?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All models show between 1-4” of snow for most of us. While what we need to improve differs from last storm, we are in a similar position in that it appears very likely it will snow and that the path to a bit of a boom scenario (3-5 instead of 1-3) isn’t THAT far off.

00z tomorrow will be pretty telling as to whether or not this system will be a bit more juiced than models show currently. Setup doesn’t exactly favor this outcome but you never know.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

well I just sat through a Bernie Rayno video out of respect for my old employer and they (AccuWeather) are still running with 3-6" for the area. He's tossing the surface depiction of the GFS/EURO for now. 

Interesting. He give a reason? Or is his inner weenie whispering sweet nothings in his ear
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, jayyy said:


Interesting. He give a reason? Or is his inner weenie whispering sweet nothings in his ear

I updated the post. Basically just that he expects an area of enhanced snowfall with good ratios not too far to the north side of the intensifying vort passing through. Doesn't think it's translating to the surface yet, rolling with 500mb over surface, etc etc

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I updated the post. Basically just that he expects an area of enhanced snowfall with good ratios not too far to the north side of the intensifying vort passing through. Doesn't think it's translating to the surface yet, rolling with 500mb over surface, etc etc

Scott alluded to that earlier as well. Certainly not impossible that the storm ends up being a bit more dynamic as the vort passes. If models are dry by even 0.2 qpf, that’s the difference between 1-3 and 3-5
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

HRRR is better. At least it gives us snow. Unlike 12Z. But it is still dry as a popcorn fart. 

image.thumb.png.656e1ba29317be69d6ac19d2320a2fe7.pngNot that dry to the north of us. Just too far north. Not good for us. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HRRR is a failure mode. The delayed coastal development allows the inland low/surface reflection to strengthen more like a classic clipper. The best snow would be 50-150 miles left of the low track with the rest of the subforum confined to getting light f-gen and WAA driven precip on the front flank of the system, followed quickly by a dry slot aloft.

If you want decent snow outside the northern part of the subforum (PA, NJ, far N MD, etc), you really don't want that inland low to develop like that.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...