Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[weatherpruf]

12 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

We just got a foot in Dutchess county last weekend. I'll take the 2-4 or whatever it is. 

Haven't seen a foot of snow in 3 years. Haven't seen more than 6 inches. 

[MJO812]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

Haven't seen a foot of snow in 3 years. Haven't seen more than 6 inches. 

I see 2 feet everyday 

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

So the models are wrong with 1-3 for the coast and maybe more if it comes west? 

Your posts doesn't even make any sense .

They might not make sense but I would bet against snow at this point. I'm not getting excited for 1-3 anyway. Those types of events often don't deliver even that much. Need something better, Ant. This is getting ridiculous. Might as well be living in Atlanta. Cheaper living at least.

[MJO812]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

They might not make sense but I would bet against snow at this point. I'm not getting excited for 1-3 anyway. Those types of events often don't deliver even that much. Need something better, Ant. This is getting ridiculous. Might as well be living in Atlanta. Cheaper living at least.

Why would you bet against snow when there is alot of cold air in place with moisture coming ? 

I don't get any of you at all

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Nice shift west from geps

[MJO812]

Getting better 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Getting better 

Will this one home ant!! Definitely trending out way. Id be happy with a 2-4/ 3-5 deal. After the last couple years that's a major win 

[BxEngine]

I dont understand the need to keep professing that small storms dont interest you. Ok? Then move on, why clog up the thread, this potential 1-3 is being discussed in this thread. Dont post if you dont want to discuss it. 

[mannynyc]

[mannynyc]

[cleetussnow]

Thats interesting.  The euro has moved a bunch in 36 hrs.  Couple more shifts?  

[SBUWX23]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Thats interesting.  The euro has moved a bunch in 36 hrs.  Couple more shifts?  

A couple more shifts and the coast is gonna have ptype issues. 

[winterwx21]

Good to see Euro making slight improvements every run. Looking good for a 1 to 3 inch event, but hopefully we can keep trending better and up that to a 2 to 4 inch prediction tomorrow. 

[cleetussnow]

5 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Are we expecting anything from tomorrows windex down here

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

A couple more shifts and the coast is gonna have ptype issues. 

Why do you think that ? Fresh cold air in place.

A few inches might not be out of the question anymore. 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Thats interesting.  The euro has moved a bunch in 36 hrs.  Couple more shifts?  

Let's hope

[SBUWX23]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why do you think that ? Fresh cold air in place.

A few inches might not be out of the question anymore. 

The closer the low is to the coast the more of a chance the flow could bring in slightly warmer air at the surface and also you introduce stronger warm advection to potentially bring in a warm nose. These ideas are shown by the nam/rgem. The shifts that most should want are increases in qpf but the track on the cmc/ecmwf is ideal for most of us as is. 

[mannynyc]

Just now, SBUWX23 said:

The closer the low is to the coast the more of a chance the flow could bring in slightly warmer air at the surface and also you introduce stronger warm advection to potentially bring in a warm nose. These ideas are shown by the nam/them. The shifts that most should want are increases in qpf but the track on the cmc/ecmwf is ideal for most of us as is. 

For reference

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Haven't seen a foot of snow in 3 years. Haven't seen more than 6 inches. 

Isn't that a bit of an exaggeration. NYC had 8.3 inches on Jan 29th 2022, and Islip had 25 inches form the same storm. 3 Years ago on Feb 1-2 NYC had 17.4 inches. I know it's been a bad stretch the last year and a half but people forget.

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Isn't that a bit of an exaggeration. NYC had 8.3 inches on Jan 29th 2022, and Islip had 25 inches form the same storm. 3 Years ago on Feb 1-2 NYC had 17.4 inches. I know it's been a bad stretch the last year and a half but people forget.

Jan 29 of 2022 was a great LI storm 

[wdrag]

A couple of NWS probability graphics and my take on this based upon modeling through 06z/14

I 84 corridor inclusive of everything I78 north on Monday night-Tuesday evening. Hazardous 2-5". Periods of snow develop later Monday night ending Tuesday evening. Delays or even a few cancellations expected Tuesday morning rush. A little ice may mix in across NJ. Ground will be frozen as temps remain below freezing from sunset today-at least forenoon Thursday.

NYC. Hazardous snow 1-3" and possible ice-rain. Tuesday 1AM-8PM. Steady snow early Tuesday possibly changing to ice or even rain? Treated surfaces Tuesday should be just wet during the daylight hours but travel delays possible for the Tuesday morning rush hour. Max snowfall a little uncertain due to ice/rain and modeling was trending heavier

 

[jm1220]

5 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Good to see Euro making slight improvements every run. Looking good for a 1 to 3 inch event, but hopefully we can keep trending better and up that to a 2 to 4 inch prediction tomorrow. 

I hope you’re right but a stronger storm will probably trend NW and warm us up near the coast and it would be more mix/rain. The ceiling near the city is probably 2-3” before the system becomes too strong and brings warm air in. There’s really nothing to stop that from happening from amping too much. Of course inland in the same places where it snowed recently wouldn’t have this issue. I hope the 2-3” does happen but we have the same problem we’ve been having with a warm ocean east of us that will ruin whatever cold air we have previous on an easterly wind.  

[the_other_guy]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Why do you think that ? Fresh cold air in place.

A few inches might not be out of the question anymore. 

it isn’t that cold. It’s like 29 or 30. 

You are looking at one aspect, which is the track, but the development and amount of precip are the other aspects.

It keeps backing into coast and (very warm) water comes in, it isnt a good mix for a 1-3 type event.

Daytime, as I mentioned, also sucks for NYC with these small events. Becomes a grass/car topper special on a street with subway lines underneath.

Bluewave said Jan is running +6 in NYC. That is disgustingly warm. Everything is warm. the ground is warm. The water is warm. 

 

 

[wdrag]

NYC: NWS stats prob of 1" snow this event...  09z/14.

[ForestHillWx]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

it isn’t that cold. It’s like 29 or 30. 

You are looking at one aspect, which is the track, but the development and amount of precip are the other aspects.

It keeps backing into coast and (very warm) water comes in, it isnt a good mix for a 1-3 type event.

Daytime, as I mentioned, also sucks for NYC with these small events. Becomes a grass/car topper special on a street with subway lines underneath.

Bluewave said Jan is running +6 in NYC. That is disgustingly warm. Everything is warm. the ground is warm. The water is warm. 

 

 

I’m always amazed at how vastly different the urban corridor can be.

Not saying it’s been ice box cold out this way this year, however I am 35 miles west of Manhattan and my yard is rock solid. Current temp: 26; progged low of 16 tonight. 

 

[gravitylover]

It was 50° yesterday and hasn't been significantly below freezing for any length of time, that firm surface in your yard is just that, the surface. A quarter inch down it's warm mud. Snow will insulate the surface and allow that warm mud to do it's dirty work ( ) and keep the ground from actually freezing. 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

it isn’t that cold. It’s like 29 or 30. 

You are looking at one aspect, which is the track, but the development and amount of precip are the other aspects.

It keeps backing into coast and (very warm) water comes in, it isnt a good mix for a 1-3 type event.

Daytime, as I mentioned, also sucks for NYC with these small events. Becomes a grass/car topper special on a street with subway lines underneath.

Bluewave said Jan is running +6 in NYC. That is disgustingly warm. Everything is warm. the ground is warm. The water is warm. 

 

 

1-3 a fine event after how shitty the winters have been .

I will enjoy it on Tuesday 

[uofmiami]

Morning update from OKX:

[ForestHillWx]

21 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

It was 50° yesterday and hasn't been significantly below freezing for any length of time, that firm surface in your yard is just that, the surface. A quarter inch down it's warm mud. Snow will insulate the surface and allow that warm mud to do its dirty work ( ) and keep the ground from actually freezing. 

I’d say a little more than a 1/4”; now i am interested and may need to dig this afternoon.