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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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We REALLY need some areawide snow Some in here are for real traumatized by the last few years and it shows.

NAM at range is just that, but it does handle the energy out west very similarly to the GFS Ukie CMC in the short term, where it at least has *some* semblance of credibility.

Would love to see the euro start trending our way by 00z tomorrow once that Midwest storm has mostly cleared. This is a possible long duration event (Monday night start) but some models show a later Tuesday - Wednesday impact, so we’re still pretty far out as far as “meteorological time” is concerned.

Buckle up. Going to be a “fun” next 72-96 hours of tracking.

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

We REALLY need some areawide snow emoji1787.png Some in here are for real traumatized by the last few years and it shows.

NAM at range is just that, but it does handle the energy out west very similarly to the GFS Ukie CMC in the short term, where it at least has *some* semblance of credibility.

Would love to see the euro start trending our way by 00z tomorrow once that Midwest storm has mostly cleared. This is a possible long duration event (Monday night start) but some models show a later Tuesday - Wednesday impact, so we’re still pretty far out as far as “meteorological time” is concerned.

Buckle up. Going to be a “fun” next 72-96 hours of tracking.

I bought some extra strength high-ABV craft brews for the weekend... to either celebrate, or to comfort myself.

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4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I bought some extra strength high-ABV craft brews for the weekend... to either celebrate, or to comfort myself.

This is an excellent plan if you ask me. It's gonna be painful as shit when the 12z starts moving to the Euro camp and we all want to kill each other. 

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My 2 cents on the 12z ICON:

1.) It's a low developing kind of late like the Euro. This is a con.

2.) It's an easy way to win. We have a developing storm riding a fresh cP airmass with falling temps. Everyone wins. 

3.) This isn't too far off from a solid 4" - 8" event for everyone. Just need the coastal to slow down and develop a bit faster. Potential plus.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

My 2 cents on the 12z ICON:

1.) It's a low developing kind of late like the Euro. This is a con.

2.) It's an easy way to win. We have a developing storm riding a fresh cP airmass with falling temps. Everyone wins. 

3.) This isn't too far off from a solid 4" - 8" event for everyone. Just need the coastal to slow down and develop a bit faster. Potential plus.

Good inputs. I’d argue you gave us 3 cents, but agreed on the simple evolution and easier wins. We don’t get many of those opps around here

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

My 2 cents on the 12z ICON:

1.) It's a low developing kind of late like the Euro. This is a con.

2.) It's an easy way to win. We have a developing storm riding a fresh cP airmass with falling temps. Everyone wins. 

3.) This isn't too far off from a solid 4" - 8" event for everyone. Just need the coastal to slow down and develop a bit faster. Potential plus.

Mine are 1. It’s been a terrible model so far this winter 2. It has more waffles than Waffle House 3. It was an awful run out here 4. I’m disregarding it in favor of the snowiest model

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2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Good inputs. I’d argue you gave us 3 cents, but agreed on the simple evolution and easier wins. We don’t get many of those opps around here

It's a new year and I'm feeling generous. Don't spend it all in one place.

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