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Southeast Sanitarium - Winter 23/24 Edition


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I was really hoping that i could track a good storm during our Christmas break from school. Nope. 

I swear If i hear, "the long term looks good" one more time, Im going to burn it down. LOL

 

Going back to my old rule of thumb of, when he shows shows 6 hours out I'll bite. 

 

..I feel better now...

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2 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Blanking is the new norm in most of NC. NC has become like SC and GA used to be for snow. Those places are becoming like N FL.

and Va becoming what NC used to be?

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After looking at todays long range, I'm getting close to throwing in the towel.

 

The NAO is trending to not be as negative and go towards neutral

The cold dump is going in the west and will take weeks before it gets here if it does at all it will be modified cold. 

The MJO is going back to warm phases and could get stuck in those. 

The PNA and Pacific in general is a big problem. 

 

We need to fix a lot before we get a real shot of a true winter storm producing pattern. Otherwise its thread the needle and hope for a miracle. 

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Can't even get a good ZR event here anymore. In the last 12 hours, my .25"+ of ice is looking real .10"ish. By tonight it'll be all rain and 38°.

Until we get a +PNA, you can kiss any chance of snow goodbye in the southeast, and not a single piece of data hints at a +PNA developing at any time.

MJO is heading into warm phases for the dead of winter.

It's ok, Fab Feb will save us. Always the best month in a Nino! Except it's barely a Nino anymore and will be a Nina by late-Feb.

I also love watching Texas and Arkansas rack up on snow while being 5-10 degrees of longitude south of me. Storm track is from Louisiana to Pennsylvania.

I'll be glad when climate change puts us all out of our misery. Hopefully it accelerates even more than it already is. Get me off this stupid, burning rock as quickly as possible.

Serenity now.

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39 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

After looking at todays long range, I'm getting close to throwing in the towel.

 

The NAO is trending to not be as negative and go towards neutral

The cold dump is going in the west and will take weeks before it gets here if it does at all it will be modified cold. 

The MJO is going back to warm phases and could get stuck in those. 

The PNA and Pacific in general is a big problem. 

 

We need to fix a lot before we get a real shot of a true winter storm producing pattern. Otherwise its thread the needle and hope for a miracle. 

How do you propose we "fix" these things?

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Yea. I see a lot of folks celebrating the cold dump out west. Sure, it's nice the cold is on this side of the planet for once but it will moderate by the time it gets here, if it actually ever makes it here at all. Just another crappy winter. Sure, we might score in Feb. But, I much prefer my cold and snow in Dec and Jan. 

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Sorry but, throwing in the towel first week of January during an El Niño is crazy. 80% of NC winter storms in Niño years happen after Jan 8th. 50% still after Feb 5th. We are just now beginning to move into a period where our most favorable climo can be seen on long range modeling, and while everything is not perfect there's more going for us than agaisnt us. You may well end up right, but this is the south no snow is always the best bet.

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15 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Sorry but, throwing in the towel first week of January during an El Niño is crazy. 80% of NC winter storms in Niño years happen after Jan 8th. 50% still after Feb 5th. We are just now beginning to move into a period where our most favorable climo can be seen on long range modeling, and while everything is not perfect there's more going for us than agaisnt us. You may well end up right, but this is the south no snow is always the best bet.

Sir this is the sanitarium, no hope is allowed here. 

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22 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Sorry but, throwing in the towel first week of January during an El Niño is crazy. 80% of NC winter storms in Niño years happen after Jan 8th. 50% still after Feb 5th. We are just now beginning to move into a period where our most favorable climo can be seen on long range modeling, and while everything is not perfect there's more going for us than agaisnt us. You may well end up right, but this is the south no snow is always the best bet.

We will be here for you in mid February for a shoulder to cry on. 

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21 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

We are just now beginning to move into a period where our most favorable climo can be seen on long range modeling.

It's not the long range that we are having trouble with. Those have produced, what, three feet of snow for us already. It's the short range and now casts that are disturbing! 

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2 minutes ago, Chuck said:

I'm starting to lean towards adopting my wife's rule. When I stick my head out the door and see it snowing I'll bite! 

Genuinely jealous of people who didn't fall into the trap of this hobby. Weather models are basically crack from what I can tell. Everytime I try to tell myself to just stop looking, I find myself waking up at 2am just to sneak a peak at the Euro lol

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