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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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10 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Now a trip down memory lane in the opposite direction. I believe it was 2001 and they had forecast a foot + and hoisted warnings for all of central NC a day before. The day of I woke up and there was someone from the weather channel in Raleigh and they were talking about the system taking longer than expected to organize but snow was still supposed to overspread the area to the tune of 6-8”. As the day wore on it became apparent the forecast had missed badly and the storm was much further east than forecast. We went from a 12-16” forecast to getting barely a dusting. I think the eastern folks had a great storm but it was downright disheartening for us in central NC 

I know exactly what you are talking about.  It was early December 2000. I just kept looking at the radar waiting for the snow to cross the James River and it never did.  Southern Suffolk, VA got about a foot and it was a sharp cutoff from there.

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12 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Now a trip down memory lane in the opposite direction. I believe it was 2001 and they had forecast a foot + and hoisted warnings for all of central NC a day before. The day of I woke up and there was someone from the weather channel in Raleigh and they were talking about the system taking longer than expected to organize but snow was still supposed to overspread the area to the tune of 6-8”. As the day wore on it became apparent the forecast had missed badly and the storm was much further east than forecast. We went from a 12-16” forecast to getting barely a dusting. I think the eastern folks had a great storm but it was downright disheartening for us in central NC 

I had communicated with Van Denton of Triad Fox8 weather. He said that the forecast could have been a bigger flop as the models were calling for two feet.

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My biggest snowstorm was Nov 25 Thanksgiving 1971 snowstorm while living at the end of the Pa turnpike in Clark's Summit, Pa. Forecast the day before was dusting increasing to 1" at 3pm. Went to get hoagies for family around 5pm and we're up 2"-3". Sent to bed with forecast now 4"-5". We had our rivalry high school football game played on Thanksgiving. I got up to use bathroom and mom was already up starting Thanksgiving dinner. She heard me and said she didn't think that they'd be playing the game. I got back to bed and she called in my bedroom saying that the game had just been postponed. I said for a couple of inches of snow? She asked if I had looked outside. My dad's car was in our drive so his dad could park his car in our two car garage while they visited... or at least it was supposed to be in the drive. Snow had drifted over it to the tune of about 2' on the ground. Wind was blowing hard all day and think we wound up with 3' or so. I missed the game by having to go back to college.

From https://www.freightwaves.com/news/worst-thanksgiving-storms-in-us-history

Northeast snowstorm Nov. 25, 1971

The night before Thanksgiving in 1971, snow began to fall in parts of the Northeast, including Pennsylvania. The snow became more intense throughout the night, and by the afternoon of Thanksgiving Day, snow totals across the state ranged from 20 to 30 inches. The biggest amounts piled up in northeastern Pennsylvania, but Albany, New York, also got slammed, with a snow total of 22.7 inches.

This was extremely wet, heavy snow, as temperatures through much of the storm hovered around 31 degrees. If temperatures had been lower, the snow would have been drier and lighter. The weight of the snow caused barn roofs to collapse, snapped off tree branches and knocked down power lines.

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What a fun snow event to our north tonight. The dynamics have taken me by surprise with the thundersnow and high rates for folks thinking they would get a light event. The poor mets at NWS St.Louis issued an apology for the forecast being too low compared to reality :lol:. Could you imagine being mad about too much snow? Is there such a thing?

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38 minutes ago, Chuck said:

My biggest snowstorm was Nov 25 Thanksgiving 1971 snowstorm while living at the end of the Pa turnpike in Clark's Summit, Pa. Forecast the day before was dusting increasing to 1" at 3pm. Went to get hoagies for family around 5pm and we're up 2"-3". Sent to bed with forecast now 4"-5". We had our rivalry high school football game played on Thanksgiving. I got up to use bathroom and mom was already up starting Thanksgiving dinner. She heard me and said she didn't think that they'd be playing the game. I got back to bed and she called in my bedroom saying that the game had just been postponed. I said for a couple of inches of snow? She asked if I had looked outside. My dad's car was in our drive so his dad could park his car in our two car garage while they visited... or at least it was supposed to be in the drive. Snow had drifted over it to the tune of about 2' on the ground. Wind was blowing hard all day and think we wound up with 3' or so. I missed the game by having to go back to college.

From https://www.freightwaves.com/news/worst-thanksgiving-storms-in-us-history

Northeast snowstorm Nov. 25, 1971

The night before Thanksgiving in 1971, snow began to fall in parts of the Northeast, including Pennsylvania. The snow became more intense throughout the night, and by the afternoon of Thanksgiving Day, snow totals across the state ranged from 20 to 30 inches. The biggest amounts piled up in northeastern Pennsylvania, but Albany, New York, also got slammed, with a snow total of 22.7 inches.

This was extremely wet, heavy snow, as temperatures through much of the storm hovered around 31 degrees. If temperatures had been lower, the snow would have been drier and lighter. The weight of the snow caused barn roofs to collapse, snapped off tree branches and knocked down power lines.

Cool story.  Thanks for sharing.  That’s the thing about big snowstorms, especially in the south, is we can connect them to some special people and times in our lives.  

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46 minutes ago, Chuck said:

I had communicated with Van Denton of Triad Fox8 weather. He said that the forecast could have been a bigger flop as the models were calling for two feet.

The big deal looking back is that the Triad wasn’t even close.  I live just north of RDU and when I woke up, I figured we were in some trouble-we were.  The problem was that the NWS only backed down to 6-8 inches and 3 hours later went to flurries.  Southern Wake got about 2 inches.

 

Wake county gradient was reversed for once.  I went from a foot to flurries in my backyard.  
 

I cashed in plenty after that until recently.

 

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On 2/16/2024 at 7:16 AM, Upstate Tiger said:

I hate you youngons missed some of the monsters from the 70s and 80s. 93 is in a category of its own though. 

I am 60 years old, and I remember the Feb 1969 storm. 16 inches of powder. I was just a kid, but the snow was up to my knees. Also has thundersnow for a few hours in the afternoon.

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1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I am 60 years old, and I remember the Feb 1969 storm. 16 inches of powder. I was just a kid, but the snow was up to my knees. Also has thundersnow for a few hours in the afternoon.

I’m 59 and I remember knee deepers in March of 71 and February of 79.  Some other notable ones were January 87 and 88. 

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48 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I’m 59 and I remember knee deepers in March of 71 and February of 79.  Some other notable ones were January 87 and 88. 

I’m 62 and I remember the snows in 70’s and 80’s on going winter storms. 
I remember we had 3 TV channels to watch back then.Channel 2 12 and 8  

Channel 8 had a meteorologist named Frank Deal. 
He was the best at forecasting the snowstorms. 
I always liked his forecasts best because he would usually predict more than channel 2 and 12. 
Most of the time he was spot on too  

 

 

 

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With things looking the way they do, I figure many on this forum will start checking out until late next fall so I just wanted to say thanks and I enjoyed the ride, even if it wasn’t a good one. We’re all nuts about meteorology and I learn more in this group than anywhere else. A special shout out to @GaWxfor the play by play this winter and here’s to hoping this is 1993 :D.

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2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

With things looking the way they do, I figure many on this forum will start checking out until late next fall so I just wanted to say thanks and I enjoyed the ride, even if it wasn’t a good one. We’re all nuts about meteorology and I learn more in this group than anywhere else. A special shout out to @GaWxfor the play by play this winter and here’s to hoping this is 1993 :D.

 Thank you. It’s been fun! Here’s an interesting tweet stating that the DC area’s Dulles airport (IAD) this evening (0Z of 2/18/24) had its 2nd strongest recorded upper level wind going back to mid 20th century (230 knots from WSW at ~34-35K ft associated with the split flow squeeze). It missed the strongest (12/6/2002, another Nino) by only 2 knots!

 

 

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1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Is being below freezing this morning the pattern change? ;)

 

13 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Overcast and cold.  This is your winter 2024 snow day.  A real dry bob.

 

Watching that slug of moisture going from the gulf out into the Atlantic is extremely frustrating. I’ll call the opaque sky and 30’s a win this year, closest thing to snow we’ve had this year smdh

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  Enjoy the current chilly nights/pleasantly cool days for the first half of this week because there’s no reason at this time to expect a dominant cool pattern anytime soon. The main indices, which suddenly made a very strong reversal (model consensus forecasts from Feb 5-9 were horrible busts) to suggest warmer than normal to dominate, haven’t backed off that reversal.

 What about March as a whole? Extended range models, other than for the stratosphere, are currently dead to me for obvious reasons. So, I’m left with mainly the always available climo. Looking at El Niño March climo for ATL since 1879:

- 47 Nino Marches or 32% of the 145 years

- Temperatures: 22 (47%) BN, 16 (34%) NN, and only 9 (19%) AN

- 7 of the top 10 (70%) coldest Marches were during El Niño vs Nino occurring only 32% of the time. So, El Niño has had a far higher frequency of top 10 cold in March than other ENSO. The other 3 coldest were during neutral ENSO meaning no top 10 cold March during La Niña.

- Even after adjusting for warmer normals, the last 4 Marches have been AN. The last BN was 2018, which only barely qualified as BN. Before that, one has to go back to 2014. The last MBN (again based on warmer climo) was 2013. The last really cold ones were way back in 1971, 1969, 1962, and the legendary 1960.

- Measurable March wintry precip during El Niño: 9 of the 47 (19%). That compares to only 15% for non-Nino March. So, a moderate increase for El Niño March.

- For 1”+ March snow since 1890, 7 of the 42 (17% or 1 in 6) El Niños had it vs a mere 3 of the 92 (1960, 1993, and 2009) (3% or 1 in 33) non-Nino Marches. That’s a stark contrast!

- No measurable wintry precip in March in 14 years. That compares to the longest period on record between measurable wintry events of 15 years (1899-1914). So, if ATL doesn’t get measurable this March, that will insure at least a tie for the longest period between them.

- So, in summary, despite the misery of a lack of wintry precip and persistent cold this winter and absolutely nothing showing on the foreseeable horizon, history says that just having El Niño ups the chances for a cold and snowy March at Atlanta (and much of the SE by proxy)vs not having El Niño. When combined with the current major SSW along with all models forecasting a very weak SPV in March, we at least have reason for some hope for a turnaround next month.

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1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

For some. For others, we’ll be switching to tracking events that actually occur here, like 500 year rainfall events and 40 degree temps in May.

I'm really worried about this fall. If hurricane season is half as bad as some are saying we could see brutal flooding Ala 2004. 

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50 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm really worried about this fall. If hurricane season is half as bad as some are saying we could see brutal flooding Ala 2004. 

This hurricane season could be nuts. Sea surface temps in the MDR are comparable to what we typically see in June. I don’t doubt that the same Mets who were throwing out analogs like 2010 for this winter will be screaming “2005” for hurricane season soon :fever: but they may be right this time or at least closer to correct. 

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1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

This hurricane season could be nuts. Sea surface temps in the MDR are comparable to what we typically see in June. I don’t doubt that the same Mets who were throwing out analogs like 2010 for this winter will be screaming “2005” for hurricane season soon :fever: but they may be right this time or at least closer to correct. 

I feel like NC and most of the Atlantic seaboard has gotten exceptionally lucky since Florence. I have a gut feeling that changes this year. Everything screams an exceptionally bad season for the basin 

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