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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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I've said it all winter, this is the most La Niña looking El Niño I've ever seen. It's just an endless onslaught of low pressures rolling through southern Canada into the NE, meaning we can never build any decent HP to work with. Overactive northern stream, classic hallmark of a La Niña. It's like after the 3 year Niña some features are lagging to adjust. 

It took 48 hours to go from this...IMG_1061.thumb.png.a3e418aa8dcebf559202ce0dffb0bf4c.png

to this...IMG_1060.thumb.png.2cc40c629380f20b930c0c07ff9e601e.png

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Epic epic fail for long range models and teleconnection forecasts. Hard to be rock steady for a month then crack the week of. I do not know how to break out of the pattern we’re in or just accept the climate is not what it was 30 years ago or heck, even 10 years ago. 

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17 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Epic epic fail for long range models and teleconnection forecasts. Hard to be rock steady for a month then crack the week of. I do not know how to break out of the pattern we’re in or just accept the climate is not what it was 30 years ago or heck, even 10 years ago. 

Climate change/global warming at its finest. It is what it is.

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9 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Climate change/global warming at its finest. It is what it is.

You see the analog years and we just keep setting new precedents for failure. A part of climate change that may lock us out of consistent winter weather in the future may be the supercharged northern stream. Going back to La Niña this year is going to sting when winter forecasts come out this season and pile it up with the previous closing in on a decade winters of failure and a trend is emerging 

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What a disaster of overnight runs. At this point it might not get truly cold for the rest of the month. Only thing you can bet on is lots of rain. Good for fishing at least. The NAO and Pacific have both flipped in a few days to what we don't want. 

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1 hour ago, lilj4425 said:

Climate change/global warming at its finest. It is what it is.

Exactly, it will become much more difficult for it to snow here. Virginia is what NC used to be like, chances wise. NC is like what SC used to be like. Keep shifting things a state down for each state. Warmer and warmer here. 

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18 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Exactly, it will become much more difficult for it to snow here. Virginia is what NC used to be like, chances wise. NC is like what SC used to be like. Keep shifting things a state down for each state. Warmer and warmer here. 

Maybe. maybe not.  you going to tell me in another generation upstate NY will be like Va?  I doubt it.

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20 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We had similar stretches in the 90s. It’s about perspective. I’d buy in if we EVER got the teleconnections to line up, but we just haven’t rolled a good roll. 

I feel ya on this.  We were screwed in the 90s for sure.  One time we had a winter storm warning and got nothing.  Last night was a kick to the stomach  but we will keep posting and hoping until early March.

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1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We had similar stretches in the 90s. It’s about perspective. I’d buy in if we EVER got the teleconnections to line up, but we just haven’t rolled a good roll. 

I may be wrong but I think if we don’t get snow before January next year this will be the longest stretch in recorded history without measurable snow for a lot of folks 

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Epic epic fail for long range models and teleconnection forecasts. Hard to be rock steady for a month then crack the week of. I do not know how to break out of the pattern we’re in or just accept the climate is not what it was 30 years ago or heck, even 10 years ago. 

I think this is key. When we point to winter events from 30+ years ago as an example that such a storm could occur in our region, we're sidestepping the fact that we don't live in the climate from way back then anymore.

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7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I may be wrong but I think if we don’t get snow before January next year this will be the longest stretch in recorded history without measurable snow for a lot of folks 

Yep. Most folks in the foothills and western piedmont are about a month away from their longest snowless streak ever. 

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8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yep. Most folks in the foothills and western piedmont are about a month away from their longest snowless streak ever. 

And to take it a step further bc the bar for being “measurable” is so small, if you add up RDUs cumulative TOTAL snow over the last 6 years (assuming this year is 0.00”) then the total amount from that entire time period is right around our yearly average. So even though we did have measurable snow in 4 of those 6 years, the amounts were tiny 

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3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I do not know how to break out of the pattern we’re in or just accept the climate is not what it was 30 years ago or heck, even 10 years ago. 

30 years ago, it wasn't much different in my area than what we are experiencing now. That was when I experienced the longest streak of snowless winters in my lifetime. It was a terrible period of time for snow lovers around here. 

31 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yep. Most folks in the foothills and western piedmont are about a month away from their longest snowless streak ever. 

It's still more than a year away in my area before that happens. Looking back at my records, Eden went from December 13th, 1989, to February 26th, 1993, without accumulating snow. 3 years, 2 months, and 14 days.

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No need for me to pile on but there’s not much to see here. The cold pattern looks seasonal at best and seasonal isn’t going to get it done. 
 

Not to be doom and gloom but I said a few weeks ago we would all have to adjust our expectations with climate change and here we are. Winter conditions are going to be increasingly unlikely outside of the mts and that’s just our reality. When we do get snow (and we will), enjoy the hell out of it because you’ll never know how long it’ll be until the next round. 

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 The 2/13-20 0Z 2/10 GEFS predicted AO rose quite a bit again to -2.2 (see image below) vs -2.7 on 2/9, -3.2 on 2/8, -3.0 on 2/7, and -3.5 on 2/6. Also, the NAO is higher. So, not good trends for 2nd day in a row at 0Z on the GEFS:

 

Today’s AO: 2/13-20 at -2.2

IMG_9173.thumb.png.85cda26ac10699094b045d1fed6937fb.png

 

Compare to just 2 days ago: 2/13-20 at -3.2

 

IMG_9143.png

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