January 2024 -- Discussion

[moneypitmike]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He is implying January is over if we extended the pattern from early January throughout the rest of the month, which is a sentiment that I would probably agree with. But I don't feel that paradigm will persist through the entirety of the season.

For clarification--are you thinking the January pattern will persist through the end of the month?  And when you say "balance of the season" you're referring to February and March only?     

Thanks.

[MJO812]

The stupid pac ridge doesn't want to cooperate. It's been like that for years 

 

 

 

First half of January looks shot 

 

 

 

 

[greenmtnwx]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The stupid pac ridge doesn't want to cooperate. It's been like that for years 

 

 

 

First half of January looks shot 

 

 

 

 

Most of January has been shot for a week or so now but February is notMost of January has been shot for a week or so now but February is not

[ORH_wxman]

GFS trying to give more room for 1/7-8. Still has 1/5 but it’s a bit SE. 

GGEM is more amped for 1/5 but it’s an interior special. Wide right for 1/7. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like January 1987 got going on January 2 and 1966 on January 8th....2005 on the 5th, 2015 didn't have a significant event until the 20th, but got a couple of inches on the 3rd, so I would agree......def. want to get on the board by mid month

Went back and looked in my class notes from Jan 15(where I keep track of the snow that fell here), and we had 2” on the 3rd, 2.5” on the 9th, and had about 4.5-5” of wet gloppy snow on the night of 23rd into early morning of the 24th.  And then of course the 26th-27th big one(which only dropped a foot here, but buried you guys east. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

For clarification--are you thinking the January pattern will persist through the end of the month?  And when you say "balance of the season" you're referring to February and March only?     

Thanks.

No, I think it should change by around the 20th, but if we are completely shutout into mid month, then that will be cause for concern. Its getting to the point where my antenna is up...I know some people think I am ACATT, but I will change my tune at some point if this were to continue through January. At some point, you just need to look at the scoreboard.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS trying to give more room for 1/7-8. Still has 1/5 but it’s a bit SE. 

GGEM is more amped for 1/5 but it’s an interior special. Wide right for 1/7. 

I feel like if I am right about this season, one of those will work out for at least a couple of inches for most.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS trying to give more room for 1/7-8. Still has 1/5 but it’s a bit SE. 

GGEM is more amped for 1/5 but it’s an interior special. Wide right for 1/7. 

Take a middle ground between the GGEM and the GFS for 1/5, and we in biz. 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS trying to give more room for 1/7-8. Still has 1/5 but it’s a bit SE. 

GGEM is more amped for 1/5 but it’s an interior special. Wide right for 1/7. 

I'll sit back with popcorn if both of these whiff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Take a middle ground between the GGEM and the GFS for 1/5, and we in biz. 

Hopefully I can fire up the first storm blog of the season over the holiday weekend.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I'll sit back with an oozie in a rocking chair if both of these whiff.

That would be soooo 1973 lol

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'll sit back with popcorn if both of these whiff.

Cue the epic meltdowns...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully I can sit on the first log of the season over the holiday weekend.

[kazimirkai]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like if I am right about this season, one of those will work out for at least a couple of inches for most.

Seems like you could be right abt that. Latest gfs puts the 5th storm a bit farther north (not enough to do anything but a nice trend) and the 8th storm has a slightly colder albeit weaker solution. Guess well have to wait and see

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Cue the epic meltdowns...

Don't think were far from some now actually, That may send a few off if the MA snows before SNE does, A Whiff, Whiff, Cutter would certainly do the trick.

[jbenedet]

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I had mentioned back a week or so that when the cold got here, That suppression of the storm track could happen.

That is def the trend.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, dryslot said:

Don't think were far from some now actually, That may send a few off if the MA snows before SNE does.

...some people are on the brink...

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Seems like you could be right abt that. Latest gfs puts the 5th storm a bit farther north (not enough to do anything but a nice trend) and the 8th storm has a slightly colder albeit weaker solution. Guess well have to wait and see

Both are quite a ways out there still too..so lots will evolve. We watch. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Both are quite always out there too..so lots will evolve. We watch. 

Until then, enjoy the snowy trails and snowy times in Caribou. 

[jbenedet]

26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Often they come north a little more than progged…let’s hope this is one of those times, so we can get on the board with a little something.  

I mean, that would happen but confluence is building in the western Atlantic at this time. It’s going to offset that correction, imo.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I mean, that would happen but confluence is building in the western Atlantic at this time. It’s going to offset that correction, imo.

Whenever i hear this, It usually doesn't bode well up here, There's a fine line of how much and how far south it ends up.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like if I am right about this season, one of those will work out for at least a couple of inches for most.

I’m optimistic we can snap back like Feb/Mar 13 after the 11/12 ratter. Not sure if the telecons align similarly though…

[Hazey]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS trying to give more room for 1/7-8. Still has 1/5 but it’s a bit SE. 

GGEM is more amped for 1/5 but it’s an interior special. Wide right for 1/7. 

We ride the ensembles for now. Too much volatility in the OP's. 

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Until then, enjoy the snowy trails and snowy times in Caribou. 

I’m home bro…gotta wait for more snow to fall. But thanks for the sentiment..it’s appreciated. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Hazey said:

We ride the ensembles for now. Too much volatility in the OP's. 

Yeah both are still too far out to be using OP runs more than just eye candy (or lack there of) 

But they seem to be coming back a little stronger as signals on the 12z suite so far. There is a nice cluster of further west members on GEFS at 12z

 

 

[gonegalt]

Current snow conditions on CAR/PQI line. The white line is the far bank of the mighty Aroostook river.

[NorEastermass128]

We’re now at about 2 years where it is like pulling teeth trying to get 3+ in a single event. FFS already. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, gonegalt said:

Current snow conditions on CAR/PQI line. The white line is the far bank of the mighty Aroostook river.

May have to get the sled set up for grass drags.

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, gonegalt said:

Current snow conditions on CAR/PQI line. The white line is the far bank of the mighty Aroostook river.

Might be time to kick off the lawn thread up there too. Time for lime?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

We’re now at about 2 years where it is like pulling teeth trying to get 3+ in a single event. FFS already. 

Use to be common but not anymore