January 2024 -- Discussion

[MJO812]

Your daily DT talk

He is still watching a few chances of storms in early January and a pattern change is underway. 

 

[CoastalWx]

00z GEFs weren’t the prettiest. 

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully one of these events prior to 1/10 work out. 

[dendrite]

Pretty good ens agreement on that d12 MW/GL cutter. 

Aside from that, at least 850s will approach seasonal levels so there will be some chances to snow over the interior even if they’re messy events. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully one of these events prior to 1/10 work out. 

Well, we haven’t had one event work out yet, so that would certainly be nice.  

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pretty good ens agreement on that d12 MW/GL cutter. 

Aside from that, at least 850s will approach seasonal levels so there will be some chances to snow over the interior even if they’re messy events. 

There’s the gorilla.  

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

00z GEFs weren’t the prettiest. 

None of these fuggin sources were .. jesus - cancel January if these first couple of opportunities fail. 

It's a wind blown -PNA/Chinook look in the 500 mb with positive hgt N-NE of Hawaii and a broad open trough through the west.  Not sure I see how that ends well for the E.   And it's not just that spatial version of it, either.  The numerical telecons have -PNA/+EPO, which makes it difficult to argue against. 

The only thing that would save that is the -AO/-NAO.   I would say 30 years ago ... not so sure with the climate now.  It's just one in many nuanced ways in which these circulation modes are being modulated by CC that I personally cannot ignore any longer.  However subtle or gross notwithstanding, it more than merely seems that when in a dilemma of diametric signals ( cold vs hot ) ... hot wins.  It's just a matter of by how much of a margin.

I'm looking at the 06z GFS and feeling satisfied eating shit (so to speak..).  Because yeah, made the call that there should be systems in place around those time intervals last week. Wee... but the jokes on us because, has anyone noticed that the 0 C 850 mb isotherm is always on the NW periphery of system structures?   It's never really IN the storm.  It's like the storms are oil and cold side is water

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

None of these fuggin sources were .. jesus - cancel January if these first couple of opportunities fail. 

It's a wind blown -PNA/Chinook look in the 500 mb with positive hgt N-NE of Hawaii and a broad open trough through the west.  Not sure I see how that ends well for the E.   And it's not just that spatial version of it, either.  The numerical telecons have -PNA/+EPO, which makes it difficult to argue against. 

The only thing that would save that is the -AO/-NAO.   I would say 30 years ago ... no so sure about the climate now.  It's just one in may nuanced ways in which these circulation modes are being modulated by CC, however subtle or gross notwithstanding.   It more than merely seems that when in a dilemma of diametric signals ( cold vs hot ) ... hot wins.  It just a matter of by how much of a margin.  

I'm looking at the 06z GFS and feeling satisfied eating shit (so to speak..).  Because yeah, made the call that there should be systems in place around those time intervals last week. Wee... but the jokes on us because, has anyone noticed that the 0 C 850 mb isotherm is always on the NW periphery of system structures?   It's never really IN the storm.  It's like the storms are oil and cold side is water

WTTTE

[Allsnow]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wasn’t the biggest fan of the EPS. PAC kind of stinks. 

Mjo p2 in Nino January has that -pna/nina look. hopefully the convection in that area by mid month moves into p3 to help pna 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pretty good ens agreement on that d12 MW/GL cutter. 

Aside from that, at least 850s will approach seasonal levels so there will be some chances to snow over the interior even if they’re messy events. 

In case folks are struggling to understand the am posts

 

snow chances increase for up and in 

Rain chances likely and increase for SNE Cp 

in case folks are looking for what is likely based on current look . SNE could get lucky if we “catch a break “ During that period but the airmass will be dunglike for that time of year . 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

WTTTE

It's been a specter growing more suspiciously obvious for 10 to 12 years, actually. 

I'm not saying winter(s) are out of reach - but we happened to be in a competing signals so ... I don't have any qualms about discussing the possibility that we've gone and moved climate to where we are on the plus side marginal scenarios.  Could be wrong.. .but the evidence in both modeling tonalities and verification trends are tough to ignore. 

[CoastalWx]

What you want to see with the -NAO and what we haven’t seen is the cold parked in SE Canada to help SNE and points south. 
 

Too early to say if we’ll have that. To me it sort of looks like a lot of cold may go out west, but again a little  early to say. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What you want to see with the -NAO and what we haven’t seen is the cold parked in SE Canada to help SNE and points south. 
 

Too early to say if we’ll have that. To me it sort of looks like a lot of cold may go out west, but again a little  early to say. 

Yea, during the first half of January.

[CoastalWx]

Well anyways some hope as maybe one of these events in the first 10 days will work out. 
 

To me that’s key. I think (it’s just MHO) that in order for winter to be salvaged, one of these will need to work out. If we go into 1/15 skunked, put the dollhouse at the 40yd line. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, during the first half of January.

I’d like to see the PNA recover quickly to lock that in. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wasn’t the biggest fan of the EPS. PAC kind of stinks. 

 

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

00z GEFs weren’t the prettiest. 

It’s all marginal garbage. There is no real come around. Maybe good for PF, but not central and SNE

[dendrite]

It hasn’t been below freezing here since Xmas eve and not below 35° since Xmas day. That’s insane for mby. The ground is completely thawed…not even a hint of ice below the surface. The chickens have been eating worms out of the ground every afternoon when I let them out.

Normally with a torch or cutter there’s at least a subsurface frozen layer that remains from previous colder nights. But it is legit April mud season right now. It’s surreal when looking at the calendar.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d like to see the PNA recover quickly to lock that in. 

Keep in mind when I say I feel great about the rest of the winter, I don't mean 2015...I mean near climo snowfall compressed onto about 60% of a season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It hasn’t been below freezing here since Xmas eve and not below 35° since Xmas day. That’s insane for mby. The ground is completely thawed…not even a hint of ice below the surface. The chickens have been eating worms out of the ground every afternoon when I let them out.

Normally with a torch or cutter there’s at least a subsurface frozen layer that remains from previous colder nights. But it is legit April mud season right now. It’s surreal when looking at the calendar.

I am still killing mosquitos in my home.

[jbenedet]

The 6th-7th threat looks gone to me; no way to get this up to our latitude until further notice. 

Focus is on the prior shortwave; around the 4th. 

I think this one trends south too, but it will end up a much closer threat, than the latter. Worth tracking.

My guess is first shortwave is centered around the Mid Atlantic, the second the southeast.

The snippets below are concerning the Jan 7th disturbance.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d like to see the PNA recover quickly to lock that in. 

mm that's exactly the problem when I was whining above.  There doesn't appear to be much large scale mechanism to bring it east.   But you're right  - these -AO/-NAO coupled aspects "might" offer winter enthusiast salvation.   

 

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It hasn’t been below freezing here since Xmas eve and not below 35° since Xmas day. That’s insane for mby. The ground is completely thawed…not even a hint of ice below the surface. The chickens have been eating worms out of the ground every afternoon when I let them out.

Normally with a torch or cutter there’s at least a subsurface frozen layer that remains from previous colder nights. But it is legit April mud season right now. It’s surreal when looking at the calendar.

This is kinda my point all the time; makes no sense to use calendar climo if the world around you doesn’t match it.

We have Dec 29th sun, that is all. If the landscape is similar by mid Jan, better off using Nov climo as a guide until/unless winter makes a sustained run to take us back towards mean conditions.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Keep in mind when I say I feel great about the rest of the winter, I don't mean 2015...I mean near climo snowfall compressed onto about 60% of a season.

I know what you mean.  But I do think we need something before 1/15. 
 

I know 57-58 had the turn around, but that’s JMHO. Not being a Debbie or anything. 

 

[greenmtnwx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I know what you mean.  But I do think we need something before 1/15. 
 

I know 57-58 had the turn around, but that’s JMHO. Not being a Debbie or anything. 

 

Wheres brooklynwx to post something good? Oops

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know what you mean.  But I do think we need something before 1/15. 
 

I know 57-58 had the turn around, but that’s JMHO. Not being a Debbie or anything. 

 

The numbers are what they are. If we get to 1/15 with nothing, it’s a tall task. They are that way for a reason, it’s not a fluke.

[NittanyWx]

44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

None of these fuggin sources were .. jesus - cancel January if these first couple of opportunities fail. 

It's a wind blown -PNA/Chinook look in the 500 mb with positive hgt N-NE of Hawaii and a broad open trough through the west.  Not sure I see how that ends well for the E.   And it's not just that spatial version of it, either.  The numerical telecons have -PNA/+EPO, which makes it difficult to argue against. 

The only thing that would save that is the -AO/-NAO.   I would say 30 years ago ... not so sure with the climate now.  It's just one in many nuanced ways in which these circulation modes are being modulated by CC that I personally cannot ignore any longer.  However subtle or gross notwithstanding, it more than merely seems that when in a dilemma of diametric signals ( cold vs hot ) ... hot wins.  It's just a matter of by how much of a margin.

I'm looking at the 06z GFS and feeling satisfied eating shit (so to speak..).  Because yeah, made the call that there should be systems in place around those time intervals last week. Wee... but the jokes on us because, has anyone noticed that the 0 C 850 mb isotherm is always on the NW periphery of system structures?   It's never really IN the storm.  It's like the storms are oil and cold side is water

 

It's very difficult to get a weak source region to deliver anything now in the east.  Possible isn't probable and that's the view I'm taking 1h Jan.  We're missing HP in eastern Canada for any length of time outside of that Jan 6-8 period (36-48 hours or so) and that would be the only window I'd say 'maybe' at the moment for the bulk of SNE.  I don't think a coastal works there for snow though outside of the far interior.  Think you'd need overrunning into N/NE winds from the retreating HP.

 

That said, I do think it's a good thing that you've got at least some cold air this side of the pole mid Jan.  The way out of this mild pattern is gonna have to start in the west.  For me personally the game changed once you saw that massive jet extension because of the damage it did to NA snowpack buils and the sheer amount of Pac air over the continent.  At that point any way out was gonna take some time and several step changes.  This is step 1 and 2.

 

For the end month period to deliver, you'd look to see this trough slide eastward around the MLK period and seasonal rebuild of Nino induced heights out west.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know what you mean.  But I do think we need something before 1/15. 
 

I know 57-58 had the turn around, but that’s JMHO. Not being a Debbie or anything. 

 

So did 14-15, and 06-07 too.  Maybe this one doesn’t.  But it’s still too early to tell.  But would love to get on the board by mid January as you said. 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know what you mean.  But I do think we need something before 1/15. 
 

I know 57-58 had the turn around, but that’s JMHO. Not being a Debbie or anything. 

 

Jan 58 had a large event on the 7th/8th. Hopefully we get the same this winter during that first 10 days. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know what you mean.  But I do think we need something before 1/15. 
 

I know 57-58 had the turn around, but that’s JMHO. Not being a Debbie or anything. 

 

Nah, that is just keeping it real...its a tall task if we go that late with nothing to show.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The numbers are what they are. If we get to 1/15 with nothing, it’s a tall task. They are that way for a reason, it’s not a fluke.

Well they are, but you also need to look ahead and see how the pattern looks. I’m completely fine being ok with winter if the second half of January into March looks good.