RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: We (jdj) follow this all the time just to see if the EPS can find any snow threats and the last 2 years it’s been abysmal this is an absolutely loaded pattern on the eps with more threats beyond 1/7 and 1/10 that it’s sniffing out . Some huge 15 day outputs that I haven’t seen in a while.. Dear Pope, Keep blessing us with your January cancelled forecasts. Thanks. Your non-believers, SNE snow weenies 2 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 22 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: We (jdj) follow this all the time just to see if the EPS can find any snow threats and the last 2 years it’s been abysmal this is an absolutely loaded pattern on the eps with more threats beyond 1/7 and 1/10 that it’s sniffing out . Some huge 15 day outputs that I haven’t seen in a while.. It's this recent -EPO ... slated to go positive, but as I was discussing above ... newly projected to go back negative by mid month. I've noticed this in the past - pretty sure we've discussed it as a group. It's better not to lock in a teleconnector mode and have it become static, but to have them oscillate? We're spitting -EPOs over a 7 to 10 day periodicity or something like that and it's giving the middle continental latitudes a steady diet of unbalanced baroclinicity. That's basically a storm petridish. I think having the EPS' NAO over the western limb as opposed to the GEFs, which looks more neutral/E is significant because so long as the NAO doesn't become too weighty and thus suppressive for its own rights ... Basically that's how we turn a -PNA into the stormy index mode that this recent +PNA failed like the Patriot's season to do. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcostell Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the trough also rolls over and slips under the block. it's not a true -PNA... and there is also a -EPO that provides Arctic air. really exciting look here Yeah that works. My snap shot was earlier and the roll over and weakening is when the biggies can form for sure. Great EPS run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: EPS won’t disappoint. We continue to see the OP waffle around from end to end of the spectrum of physical plausibility...this is why you ride the mean way day 6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We continue to see the OP waffle around from end to end of the spectrum of physical plausibility...this is why you ride the mean way day 6. We Ruff Ryders… Stop…..drop….pickles don’t hump all the ops…. Ooohhhh…….Noooo…… the mean still shows snowwww.. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I started to a thread for this system - fyi ... I want to take a moment to discuss a major overhaul to the hemisphere beginning to emerge. It was a distant typically 'iffy' signal before, but around 3 days ago it started accelerating into coherence. Now we are seeing -1 to as deep as -2 SD WPO anomalies emerging in the telecon projection. This is also happening nearly in tandem with an emerging tendency to 'sag' the EPO back negative. You might recall ... I recently was concerned for a major warm up heading into mid month, possibly compensated by a -AO/-NAO. The -PNA/+EPO signal ( previous) is a Pacific warm signal that was diametric to a cold polar domain exertion. Very interesting... However, now the Pacific appears to be collapsing the other way - new but real. A newly defining -d(WPO) --> -EPO sends the Pacific arc into the 'AB' phase. The expectation therefrom materializes ( or tends to ...) blocking N overriding colder heights uncutting. This also tends to raise heights over the Alaskan sector ... all prelude to +PNA. That sequence of events is the natural propagation of the R-wave distribution. It was all missing up until 3 days ago but here we are with what really looks like a wholesale change. The -WPO crash in the telecon forecast during the ides of the month, and what is interesting is that the EPO starts actually sagging prior to any transmittance of that WPO signal into the N-NE Pac mode. That's flagging a constructive interference being position in wait. The two of those together is interesting after the 15th of the month You mean winter isn't over? Wow, who would have thought..... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 42 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the trough also rolls over and slips under the block. it's not a true -PNA... and there is also a -EPO that provides Arctic air. really exciting look here That looks like a huge coastal storm and dump of arctic air. Only concern is suppression, but the 50-50 doesn’t look to be too close and the Greenland block is on the west side and not too far south so it shouldn’t be too suppressed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, good observation. I noticed that too. That iffy time looks like it’s going away for the time being. Big block on today’s 12z EPS. I think we need that because that looks like a healthy -PNA developing too. Totally. We will have RNA mid month....need that block to December-early January 2010-2011 our way to the February 2010 stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Totally. We will have RNA mid month....need that block to December-early January 2010-2011 our way to the February 2010 stretch. 50mb PV be like: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: 6 to 10 on the EPS mean is nuts this far out That's about the type of event I expect in the end...I agree with @Typhoon Tipon this maybe shearing out a bit within 72-96 hours or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 50mb PV be like: Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 50mb PV be like: I haven't been paying attention, which day? My window was between Xmas and 1/8... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We Ruff Ryders… Stop…..drop….pickles don’t hump all the ops…. Ooohhhh…….Noooo…… the mean still shows snowwww.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Beer Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I haven't been paying attention, which day? My window was between Xmas and 1/8... The mean splits it and then it tries to come back….but getting knocked around a bit. Right around the 8th haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The mean splits it and then it tries to come back….but getting knocked around a bit. Right around the 8th haha. Oh yea.....I am really hungry this year. I want to knock this fu**ing season out of the park after getting nippled to death last year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Oh yea.....I am really hungry this year. I want to know this fu**ing season out of the park after getting nipped to death last year. I admit I was getting shook last week, but nice turn of events at least for the time being. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I admit I was getting shook last week, but nice turn of events at least for the time being. That is the beauty of spending two consecutive weeks writing and researching....you get so confident and resolute in your convictions that it's easier to remain consistent in the face of wavering guidance...of course, some times you get the bull and some timea you get the horns, like last year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I do really hope the 7th works out even if it is just a moderate event. My school ski club starts Jan 9 and the last few seasons have been awful for them. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: All that matters is the ensemble mean. Not to say that there isn't a realistic chance it could miss because there is. As important as the mean is, I do like looking at it in relation to the median. Appears the median on both GEFS and EPS is West/Northwest of their respective means. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: As important as the mean is, I do like looking at it in relation to the median. Appears the median on both GEFS and EPS is West/Northwest of their respective means. Absolutely agree wrt mean/median. In fact throw out the extreme outliers and the mean will have better credence I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Absolutely agree wrt mean/median. In fact throw out the extreme outliers and the mean will have better credence I think. The Euro EFI stuff can help with that too. The shift of tails shows you what the outliers at the top end are saying, but the shading tells you where the meat of the ensemble is. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 27 minutes ago, weathafella said: Absolutely agree wrt mean/median. In fact throw out the extreme outliers and the mean will have better credence I think. I recall Tip introducing the notion of "correction vector" a few years back. I think the median is akin to that and helps identify the direction and magnitude of that correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Totally. We will have RNA mid month....need that block to December-early January 2010-2011 our way to the February 2010 stretch. Badaboom-badabang 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: This look reminds me some of Jan 2011…esp prior to the 1/12/11 storm. Big AK/Bering ridge with -PNA and big -NAO block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Im warming up to this MLK period and immediately after for snow chances, which is nothing new in my view. Hate the 10th, still think this is doable Jan 7 but still need a few things to go right out west for it to happen and need to avoid 700mb warm intrusion if it ends up a coastal. I feel risk skewed higher for suppression than cut today with the 7th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 50 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The Euro EFI stuff can help with that too. The shift of tails shows you what the outliers at the top end are saying, but the shading tells you where the meat of the ensemble is. Agree here, very useful tool at the d6-10 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: As important as the mean is, I do like looking at it in relation to the median. Appears the median on both GEFS and EPS is West/Northwest of their respective means. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 18z gfs still a miss for most, but easily N of 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 For the 10th threat, what are some things to look for that would lead to a more wintry outcome? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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