Jacob brooklyn Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 10 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: QPF is still concerning for the next week. Yikes. Rain events? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, Jacob brooklyn said: Yikes. Rain events? Yep huge cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Pingers now. But we've got at least .1" Fun times. Happy shoveling on the mainland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: HH GFS with a MECS Strong potential in that timeframe. EPS was very impressive 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 How have the various ensembles been performing with respect to the broader patterns so far? What’s been the most accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Hopefully AMO flips soon...it showed signs it might for awhile 4-5 years back but this may end up being a 35 year cycle which means we are still 7 years or so away from any flip It seems like the +AMO is peaking still. The CPC last updated their timeseries in Jan 2023. From 1 year ago: September 2022 AMO was +0.662, the highest on record for September since 1948 (2nd was +0.435) October 2022 AMO was +0.483, the highest on record for October since 1948 https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.data Jan ends the data. Then we had this in 2023: https://ibb.co/4djpgtR I would say it's near peaking, or 2022-23 was the peak. That gives it at least 10 more years imo of +AMO cycle. (Sept '22 +0.662 was the highest in that whole timeseries, with no other month-years exceeding +0.505, although if you count negatives, the 2nd highest is -0.536.) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The Wed storm may be a huge problem for the interior if they are getting 12-18 inches of snow tonight followed by that kind of rainfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 26 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The Wed storm may be a huge problem for the interior if they are getting 12-18 inches of snow tonight followed by that kind of rainfall. If the interior does well tonight does Wednesday start trending colder? (Not that it will make a huge difference) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 fwiw: The two storm thread is available and will continue til the OBS thread for that storm starts around 7A Tue. I am considering a MDT impact event for the 13th, but for now the snowstorm part is I84 so wind and extending the river flooding rain will have to be the drivers for I95. Another possibly behind that on the ensembles 16th but no thread consideration for that one. This 6th-13th period is probably fairly unique in NYC subforum history with this more wintry event, followed by a flooder and power outage event, followed by a possible wintry event inland flooder-power outage event coast. Dont want to overplay the 13th yet so not threading til Monday morning, if then. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 January 16-18 looks interesting deep in the long range, GEFS ensembles not picking up on any serious coastal threats for the 13th it seems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 We’re definitely due a region wide all snow event. I don’t mean a HECS, but just something with cold air in place and favorable storm dynamics. Was even thinking something like that Jan 8-9 event from 2022 that pretty much gave the entire metro 5+ with no mixing that I recall (even here was powder all the way). And then hey, let’s go from there. HECS are amazing but I’m the guy that likes multiple events with a recurring winter vibe instead of one and done + torch. Hopefully today’s event was the building block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: It's trying, there are few larger flakes but the snow here remains quite light. There's now a slushy coating on the lawn, but not enough yet to call measurable. Temp down to 33.2 It was nice to see a few hours of snow on the south shore (it snowed from 4 PM to 8 PM here) and see car tops and roof tops get covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 15 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Here is a legit question, did ANY El nino work out for us in the 90s? 94/95 and 97/98 were complete duds. 95/96 was a la Nina. la ninas after el ninos are much better. Unless we get a HECS like we got in 82-83 and 15-16, count on next winter being better than this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 14 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Bluewave, Brooklyn, Allsnow - Chuck did say we are in a decadal RNA. Also, we were in one in the 80s and 90s. Now, 94/95 and 97/98 were failed El ninos in a decadal RNA pattern, so is this year an example, like the 90s, where El ninos work against us in a decadal RNA? Does this mean, like 21/22 and 95/96, that's la ninas work better in decadal RNAs? I wouldn't say 97-98 was a failed el nino, it was way too much of an el nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 14 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Bluewave, Brooklyn, Allsnow - Chuck did say we are in a decadal RNA. Also, we were in one in the 80s and 90s. Now, 94/95 and 97/98 were failed El ninos in a decadal RNA pattern, so is this year an example, like the 90s, where El ninos work against us in a decadal RNA? Does this mean, like 21/22 and 95/96, that's la ninas work better in decadal RNAs? la ninas after el ninos are usually the best, also remember 10-11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 Both of these may need a thread depending on snow-rain-prolonging river flooding-power outage implications. Just too early for me to start the threads with uncertainty on general track but these are potent systems. I dont want to thread MEH-we don't want boredom do we? So just not sure enough yet, especially since we're still very active in one thread. Saturday the 13th Potential for 6+" snowstorm I84 corridor. Solutions vary from just 1 inch of snow and 1 inch of rain prolonging flooding-power outages, to another big snow event. Still lots of uncertainty. Tuesday the 16th might be the last of this 10 day spate of storms and of course, just don't know. It could turn noticably colder for the latter part of January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 ThNka for the fix on emoji's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 All with interest Jan 13... please hold off on buying a GFS intense warm wet windy midwest storm. Indications from the last 3 EPS cycles that a lead strong shrug wave comes out the 13th and could be a colder event, especially if it does what this one did (6th-7th) Clearly big differences at 5H between the EPS/GEFS for 12z/13. Take a look for yourselves via tropical tidbits. I am siding with the EPS. GEFS tends to get too wrapped up in single high amp troughs among other things, at least T+120(imo) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This is the most Nina-like January storm track pattern we have seen during such a strong El Niño. Two high impact Great Lakes storm tracks with heavy rains, flooding, and strong winds a few days apart. Just shows how strong the -PNA trough out West is. la ninas are a lot better than this Chris ;-) remember 95-96 and 10-11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 Also... I am concerned about looking too far ahead beyond Jan 16. While I like the idea of pummel storms for late Jan-Feb.... we might be seeing the main deal now? Go ahead with model cues that shoot my thinking down... but I'm pretty sure what we're seeing in they Jan 6-16, 2024 time frame is not common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I am straight up gonna pass out if TN/GA/SC sees a snow event 1/18-1/20 but I am way more worried about that than I am the Op Euro/CMC ideas....their ensembles sort of show that too...much more likely we see something suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I am straight up gonna pass out if TN/GA/SC sees a snow event 1/18-1/20 but I am way more worried about that than I am the Op Euro/CMC ideas....their ensembles sort of show that too...much more likely we see something suppressed Violently disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 This set of CPC hazard products posted on Jan 5 330PM was overlooked by myself since was embedded in storm 1. This CPC guidance has the two storms 1/13 and 16. If these get threaded, not yet sure how I'd like to do but probably separate. Depends how new total qpf, snowfall/wind looks for those two combined vs separate. Tides should be pretty high Sat morning the 13th so that will need monitoring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Violently disagree What an adjective for Sunday at 830am 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Was -4 in 2018 on this date out here. Haven’t seen anything close in a while. Doubt we see single digits this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I am straight up gonna pass out if TN/GA/SC sees a snow event 1/18-1/20 but I am way more worried about that than I am the Op Euro/CMC ideas....their ensembles sort of show that too...much more likely we see something suppressed we've had something like that in this time frame a few times this decade haven't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 19 minutes ago, psv88 said: Was -4 in 2018 on this date out here. Haven’t seen anything close in a while. Doubt we see single digits this winter I was at Stowe - -30. There was a cold outbreak the week after Christmas that winter as well, though not as severe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: la ninas are a lot better than this Chris ;-) remember 95-96 and 10-11? Sometimes La Ninas like those can overcome the -PNA Western trough tendency which makes them so special. The trough in a few days near New Mexico is forecast to be among the strongest on record for this time of year. Just shows how the Niña-like MJO phases can operate even during El Niño’s this strong. This was pretty much unheard of with such strong El Niños before 15-16. It’s what happens when the WPAC warm pool competes with the Nino warming near the Central to Eastern Pacific. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: Sometimes La Ninas like those can overcome the -PNA Western trough tendency which makes them so special. The trough in a few days near New Mexico is forecast to be among the strongest on record for this time of year. Just shows how the Niña-like MJO phases can operate even during El Niño’s this strong. This was pretty much unheard of with such strong El Niños before 15-16. It’s what happens when the WPAC warm pool competes with the Nino warming near the Central to Eastern Pacific. And now it's leading to these powerful rainy cutters which are becoming increasingly concerning given recent rains. Very strong winds with saturated ground ain't good either. And finally we'll likely see significant coastal flooding too with new moon nearby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I would be concerned about very strong winds later Tuesday. Some of those numbers are a bit scary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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