January 2024

[Allsnow]

Just now, NittanyWx said:

VP200, 850 u-wind and OLR all show convection and the expected forcing response eastward with a progressive MJO signal.  There really isn't much debate here as to the progressive nature of tropical forcing.

 

There is a lot of debate on whether this parlays into cold in the windows it's supposed to for early-mid Feb.  IO convection is shut off for the time being.

 

 

@bluewave said the warmth in 7 might keep the wave there longer. Last year we didn’t make 8 until March and it was to late for the coast 

[donsutherland1]

The first week of February will start unseasonably mild (40s and perhaps a few days of 50° or above in New York City). However, as some have pointed out, it won't be a "blowtorch."

To get much warmer readings (60° or above) during the first half of February, the core of much above normal 500 mb height anomalies should be over the Northeastern U.S. or southern Quebec (accounts for almost 74% of such cases during February 1-15, 1950-2023). Instead, the EPS forecasts the core of the much above normal 500 height anomalies to be anchored in the vicinity of the Hudson Bay. Therefore, the most impressive warmth will likely be focused on the Great Lakes Region, Northern Plains, and central Canada. Below are clusters of outcomes that account for 25 of the 27 (93%) of 60° cases.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 68 (1967)
NYC: 68 (1967)
LGA: 68 (1967)

Lows:

EWR: 2 (1936)
NYC: -6 (1882)
LGA: 3 (1963)

Historical:

 

1916 - The temperature at Browning MT plunged 100 degrees in just 24 hours, from 44 degrees above zero to 56 degrees below zero. It was a record 24 hour temperature drop for the U.S. (Weather Channel) (National Severe Storms Forecast Center)

1935 - Snowstorms hit the northeastern U.S. and the Pacific Northwest producing record 24 hour snowfall totals of 23 inches at Portland ME and 52 inches at Winthrop MA. (David Ludlum)

 

1940: A record-breaking 19.9 inches of snow fell in Richmond, Virginia, on this day. The storm, which began on the 23rd, produced 21.6 inches of snow for the Richmond area. The headline in the Richmond Times-Dispatch was "Blizzard Sweeps State, Bringing Deep Snow; Public Schools Closed." 

1956 - Thirty-eight inches of rain deluged the Kilauea Sugar Plantation of Hawaii in 24 hours, including twelve inches in just one hour. (David Ludlum)

1963 - A great arctic outbreak reached the southern U.S. The cold wave broke many records for duration of cold weather along the Gulf Coast. A reading of 15 degrees below zero at Nashville TN was an all-time record low for that location. (David Ludlum)

 

1967: A tornado outbreak across the Central U.S. was the furthest north ever recorded in the winter up to that time. Severe weather occurred across a good portion of the southeast and east-central Iowa. Two-inch hail fell at Armstrong, and over two dozen tornadoes were reported. Five miles north of Fort Madison, one fatality occurred from a tornado, along with six injuries. A tornado causing F4 damage killed 3 people and injured 216 in St. Louis County, Missouri. Storms also affected parts of northern and central Illinois. One strong tornado in Mason County killed one person and injured three others. Another tornado moved across the Champaign-Urbana metropolitan area, injuring five people. Other strong tornadoes were reported across Carroll County in Mt. Carroll, where 12 people were injured, and near Gladstone in Henderson County. Funnel clouds were reported across the southwest section of Chicago, IL. Iowa had never recorded a tornado in January before this outbreak. 32 total tornadoes occurred, 14 of them in Iowa. Nine twisters occurred in Missouri, 8 in Illinois, and 1 in Wisconsin.

1982 - Chinook winds plagued the foothills of southeastern Wyoming and northern and central Colorado for the second straight Sunday. The winds gusted to 140 mph at Wondervu CO, located northeast of Denver. Chinook winds a week earlier produced wind gusts to 137 mph. (Storm Data)

1987 - Temperatures in Minnesota plunged far below the zero mark. International Falls MN reported a morning low of 35 degrees below zero, and Warroad MN was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 45 below zero. A storm developing in northeastern Texas produced severe thunderstorms with large hail in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas. Camden AR reported golf ball size hail. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A blizzard rapidly developed in the north central U.S. In just one hour weather conditions in eastern North Dakota switched from sunny skies, light winds and temperature readings in the 20s, to rapidly falling temperatures and near zero visibility in snow and blowing snow. High winds in Wyoming, gusting to 72 mph at Gillette, produced snow drifts sixteen feet high. Northwestern Iowa experienced its second blizzard in just 24 hours. High winds in Iowa produced wind chill readings as cold as 65 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Heavy snow blanketed the Rockies and the Northern High Plains Region. Hettinger ND received 12 inches of snow. Wolf Creek Pass CO was blanketed with 16 inches of snow in just 24 hours. Severe cold prevailed across Alaska. Between the 24th and the 29th of January, a total of thirty stations in the state report all-time record low temperatures. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A deep low pressure system brought high winds and heavy snow to the western Aleutian Islands of Alaska. Winds gusting to 82 mph at Shemya reduced the visibility to near zero in blowing snow. Rain and gale force winds lashed the northern Pacific coast. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains over the central Gulf coast states. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[Allsnow]

 

[batmansascientist]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we are similar to BHO which has had 52 top 10 warmest months to only top 10 coldest since 2010. 
 

 

I have it at 36 to 1 at Central Park since 2010. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, NittanyWx said:

This is the warmest winter on record nationally Dec 1 to date (total HDD).

and the wettest too?

 

[NittanyWx]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave said the warmth in 7 might keep the wave there longer. Last year we didn’t make 8 until March and it was to late for the coast 

 

Let me try to explain this a second time, becuase I'm not sure you're understanding what I'm saying.  Those hovmoller charts are showing a +OLR anomaly in the phase 7 region for the 11-15 day window in response to an eastward propagation of the main negative VP200 anomaly.  In laymans terms, the EC Ens today is showing progression.

 

Now, the model is also trying to add some -VP anom noise late 11-15 day in those west/cpac regions too.  But at a window where it's RMSE MJO forecast performance has been...not great. 

 

We've already had phase 8 physical forcing responses this year, the signal just wasn't particularly strong.  That wasn't the case for phase 1/3 response, where we had a very nice and clean forcing for end December and early Jan...certainly that was shown at the VP200 level.

 

Isolating out OLR:

 

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

[donsutherland1]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Boston can sometimes score big in the kind of pattern that is forecast. The biggest example is the February 8-9, 2015 storm. Boston picked up 22.2" of snow. New York City recorded a trace. If any of the major I-95 cities (Richmond to Boston) has a reasonable chance at seeing 4" or more of snow, Boston is that city. That's not a guarantee, but the probability is far greater than for the other major I-95 cities.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave said the warmth in 7 might keep the wave there longer. Last year we didn’t make 8 until March and it was to late for the coast 

I am hoping the forcing can finally shift east of the Dateline by mid-February like the models show but no guarantees this far out in time.

[MJO812]

I guess no one is tracking this weekends event 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I guess no one is tracking this weekends event 

No, congrats NNE 

[Allsnow]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am hoping the forcing can finally shift east of the Dateline by mid-February like the models show but no guarantees this far out in time.

Hopefully…it would be nice to get one solid 4-6 inch event before winter is over 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

No, congrats NNE 

I guess you aren't following the models. That's alright. 

 

[MJO812]

Faster transfer compared to 6z

[North and West]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I guess you aren't following the models. That's alright. 

 

I hope you're right, but until the meh is proven wrong, you have to ride the hot hand. 

[MJO812]

Ukie is also nice

The Positive PNA might help us out here.

[MJO812]

Just now, North and West said:

I hope you're right, but until the meh is proven wrong, you have to ride the hot hand. 

Of course but there is a clear trend.  I'm going to keep tracking this on other subforums and forums .

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I guess you aren't following the models. That's alright. 

 

white rain yippee

[Stormlover74]

Congrats LI

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

white rain yippee

Another troll

Is there a point of posting on here anything weather related ? 

Enjoy yourselves 

[Allsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Another troll

Is there a point of posting on here anything weather related ? 

You have less then 3 inches for the season so far….

 

Is it really the forum that’s trolling? 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

You have less then 3 inches for the season so far….

 

Is it really the forum that’s trolling? 

No but this is a weather forum where we post all weather. I don't see the subforum talking about the storm.

Heck even the Mid Atlantic subforum is posting about it 

[MJO812]

I'm going to name this storm the CooL storm if it happens. 

[MJO812]

Ukie lol

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

No but this is a weather forum where we post all weather. I don't see the subforum talking about the storm.

Heck even the Mid Atlantic subforum is posting about it 

listen, this guy and that QQ guy just forget dealing with them with regards to this winter. 

Both declared winter over on January 20th.

meanwhile, I had sleet and snow falling last night.

This guy made the scientific prediction of a light snow event the first week of March…yesterday.

[ForestHillWx]

The weenie tags are losing their effect in my opinion…. 

For those of us living outside the ambit of the metropolis, thank you for tracking. 

[Tatamy]

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I guess no one is tracking this weekends event 

Ant - We all have access to the Pivotal site for the basic models with the subscription option for the advanced features.  I even posted when they offered $20 off for the year earlier this month.  I am sure that those who are interested are following it there.

[wishcast_hater]

I'm going to name this storm the CooL storm if it happens. 

Just watched DT’s breakdown for this weekend and the next few weeks. He is not impressed by this weekends storm, too warm. Perhaps a pattern change by mid February to colder weather but it’s basically December all over again for now.


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