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January 2024


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4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Blizzard of 2005 19 year anniversary 

 

AccuSnowTotals-22Jan05.gif

 

 

Great storm. I think it was in the single digits the morning of. Was driving back from Philly during the heart of it then the following morning we got blizzard conditions as the low departed 

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Great storm. I think it was in the single digits the morning of. Was driving back from Philly during the heart of it then the following morning we got blizzard conditions as the low departed 

2005 had a special stretch for our local area 

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29 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Up to 28 from a low of 13 last night.    Clouds moving in later and not likely moving out till later Friday.  Upper 30s near 40 today, rain Tue - Fri  totals for the week 1 - 1.5 inches. Warming each day till reaching the 50s Fri perhaps upper 50s near 60 this Saturday.  Trough is pulled down the northeast with a storm deepening offshore 1/29 - 1/31 and some cold perhaps mixing before moderating later next week and the first week of Frb.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

Saturday should be the best day in a long time.

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16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Great storm. I think it was in the single digits the morning of. Was driving back from Philly during the heart of it then the following morning we got blizzard conditions as the low departed 

It was a very good storm but underrated because it was overshadowed by PD2 from a few years before.  PD2 was the storm of the decade.

 

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14 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Made it down to 4 last night, now 19. Some ice/snow in the forecast Tuesday/Tuesday night here north of I84, maybe an inch. 

Yeap tomorrow/tomorrow night is looking wintry for those along & N of 84. 1-2” of snow/sleet with a bit of ice 

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17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is getting there for the end of the month storm

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

its there now with that HP in southeast Canada - and a favorable storm track and also climatology on our side yes even in a warmer pattern we can have brief periods of winter like weather

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3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Would be remarkable to pull off something meaningful in coastal areas in this hostile pattern so my view is to expect nothing. Literally anything would be a bonus!

Yeah its warm Sunday so will take alot to get this to snow at the coast even at night

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

this was a "super clipper"

 

And then the 2006 Feb KU and really, we did not see much for a few years after. 2007 was lean, a couple events in 08 and 09, so it is not unusual, even in a snowy decade, to see lean years. Maybe not as lean as 2020, 23, and so far 24...but lean.

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No threads until at least 730PM.  Ice fishing now.  Ice continues a risk to within 10 miles of the NYC urban center. Tue-early Wed.  

 

 

28-31 continues minor snow on the table NYC, bigger ninalnd from I95. No thread til ensembles are better agreement and CMC has to be on board. 

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

A good phase will make it happen. We are also in middle of winter.

It's a real thread the needle situation, but yeah late January is probably the time you're most likely to be able to pull off a thread the needle event in an unfavorable pattern. I would say only a slight chance that this will work out for the coast, but it's something to keep an eye on. Maybe we can get lucky with HP to the north in the right spot. 

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Tomorrow into early Wednesday remains on track for a light freezing rain/icing situation, generally running from northeastern Pennsylvania across the Hudson Valley into western Connecticut, but north and west of New York City and Newark.

image.png.88ab63609b562cc2a86d5852fddd539f.png

image.png.a5cbeeec679e39332fa0f55cc6128986.png

image.png.904df805281dc67ffa0388e8455c9bbd.png

January 28-30, 2024:

Possible light snow event. ☃️ Historic data for the forecast pattern, even when the timeframe is widened to include all of January and February 1950 through 2023 strongly favors a light event for both the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The 1/22 12z GFS is currently an outlier. In contrast, the 1/22 12z GGEM shows no measurable snow for either city. It is premature to rule out any snowfall, but until there is support for the periodic more aggressive outcomes, those more aggressive outcomes should be discounted.

image.png.d1ffc326bb3bae9cdc8463e6a1307c87.png

Were the EPO to be negative, the odds of something larger would increase. Were the EPO +1.000 or above, the odds of a significant snowfall would all but vanish.

February 1-5, 2024:

There is strong support both from the forecast teleconnections, extended range of the EPS/GEFS, and the ECMWF and CFSv2 weeklies for warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures. Therefore, this remains a high confidence idea despite the timeframe involved.

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Posting the CNN displayed winter snowfall departures expected in moderate-strong El Niño as in their article on 12/2/23, and per my request to NOHRSC they generated the departure map to date (from only a 15 year NPOHRSC climo) ...  and I added the season to date mapped total.  

Screen Shot 2023-11-25 at 8.16.55 AM.png

Screen Shot 2024-01-22 at 11.23.09 AM.png

Screen Shot 2024-01-22 at 11.22.15 AM.png

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18 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

And then the 2006 Feb KU and really, we did not see much for a few years after. 2007 was lean, a couple events in 08 and 09, so it is not unusual, even in a snowy decade, to see lean years. Maybe not as lean as 2020, 23, and so far 24...but lean.

it slowly got less and less lol

2002-03 was my favorite and top winter of the decade with the biggest snowstorm (the only 2 foot storm here) and an april snowstorm too! and 2003-04 was very good, very cold with the earliest blizzard we have ever had followed by the famous pink snow snowstorm in January, 2004-05 was a little less than that and 2005-06 was only an average winter here because we only got a little over a foot in the blizzard, the april snowfall that year actually had higher rates here even though only 2" fell.

 

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