AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 15z SREF is coming in. The mean hasnt posted yet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Wow. Fucking wow. "I'll tell you when it's time to sharpen the blade, so that when that first flake falls, you'll know it's time to stop sharpening and start dulling that blade." Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Reading this in a vacuum, one might think that being a snowplow driver gives one an extra early lead time on snow rumors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Having a hard time multitasking between reading here, looking at guidance, reading other met's thoughts and trying to work on weather info communication for work. A "fun stressful" day that I'll miss soon enough... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The HRRR is coming in very compact and about 100 miles faster than 12Z as of 5AM tomorrow. Still a good snow for those that it reaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Hot off the press 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just finishing up at this point. One more compaction or slight shift south and Blizz misses a good bit of the Blizz storm. Crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Hard to believe this is looking like a non-event for most of Northern PA and NE, when it looked like a monster for them not 12 hours ago. Models have been a total mess on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, paxpatriot said: Hard to believe this is looking like a non-event for most of NE, when it looked like a monster for them not 12 hours ago. Models have been a total mess on this one. Quite a few PA Counties will go from WSW to little or no snow if the HRRR is correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The compaction of the shield is a tough one to know until very close to gametime. I expect an extremely intense band on the NW edge given this storms structure and some subsidence with the N/S wave pressing down on our low, which will be deepening pretty explosively. A 988 over the chesapeake bay in this set up is going to produce some serious rates and possible thunder snow. The tight shield if it verifies is just another point to believe this would fall extremely heavily in the snow zone. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Latest long range HRRR continued the subtle south trend. Any more south and the northern parts of LSV could have lower QPF issues! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just finishing up at this point. One more compaction or slight shift south and Blizz misses a good bit of the Blizz storm. Crazy. Man oh man, if that is close to the final result CTP's map is going to need some major adjustments. I think this one is really throwing the NWS forecasters for a loop. These southern shifts have been something to behold. Great for those of us down here in Amish land though! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: The compaction of the shield is a tough one to know until very close to gametime. I expect an extremely intense band on the NW edge given this storms structure and some subsidence with the N/S wave pressing down on our low, which will be deepening pretty explosively. A 988 over the chesapeake bay in this set up is going to produce some serious rates and possible thunder snow. The tight shield if it verifies is just another point to believe this would fall extremely heavily in the snow zone. To your point, there likely will be a 20-30 mile wide band from SW to NE that will be the real show with high QPF and intense snowfall rates. Where that band sets up determines who gets 6-12” in 6 hours. Locations on the edges of this band will get robbed as the intense upward motion will cause surrounding subsidence and either light precip rates to the north of it, and a rain/snow mix to its south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Man oh man, if that is close to the final result CTP's map is going to need some major adjustments. I think this one is really throwing the NWS forecasters for a loop. These southern shifts have been something to behold. Great for those of us down here in Amish land though! On the current NWS Zones, the counties that need a Warning per the HRRR do not have it and many that have it, do not need it. Latest AFD has the words LSV and crosshairs near each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 What a mess of a system. One saving grace is roads I don't think will be too horrible (I mean, they are PA roads so they're horrible on a 75 degree June day) but just a slushy mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, canderson said: What a mess of a system. One saving grace is roads I don't think will be too horrible (I mean, they are PA roads so they're horrible on a 75 degree June day) but just a slushy mess. Most models have temps getting into or near the 40's for all of the southern half of PA tomorrow. Once the snow stops, roads will melt fast IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 51 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I am glad you asked. His snow removal forecast. @canderson looks like he needs this! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 WWA for Adams, York and Lanco. 2-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Festus said: WWA for Adams, York and Lanco. 2-5" Going to cause some angst here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The 2:45 PM posting of the WSW up this way still calls for 5-8. The folks in office must feel like a more northerly expansion is going to occur versus current guidance. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Most models have temps getting into or near the 40's for all of the southern half of PA tomorrow. Once the snow stops, roads will melt fast IMO. Roads are pretty warm already so for them to get snow it'll have to puke for a while. Which it might, but once it slows down the melt will be very fast. It's 51 at my house right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 18 minutes ago, Festus said: WWA for Adams, York and Lanco. 2-5" I think this is reasonable and probably what I would forecast. Now the warning in DuBois on the other hand… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 NAM holds for LSV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homie J Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 How did I go from the rain snow line to the snow gradient in 24 hours in State College 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Another view of the 18z 12km NAM 10:1 and kuchera maps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 From DT This is a very dynamic and changing situation - a difficult forecast. Over the last 36 hours all of the models have come significantly further to the South with the track of the LOW which means that the heavy snow band which originally was supposed to be up in northeast PA / the Hudson Valley of New York/ and interior New England is now shifted to the south. But the new afternoon data coming in here around 3pm -- shows that once again the European model is going to end up being correct. the 18z NAM and 18z HRRR - these are short range intermediate models that come out of 2-3PM have now dramatically cut their snow totals and have shoved the precipitation further to the South and show a much much weaker system. If it sounds like I am uncertain it is because I am. And right now every single meteorologist in the NE usa is playing a game of WTF is going on? . NWS has a HUGE amounts of snow in southeast NY and southern New England as does Accuwx and TWC. We are all playing catch up to this constantly changing and weakening system. Normally when you get this closer to an event the models come to good agreement. Instead the data is going in all sorts of different directions only 18 hours before the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: From DT This is a very dynamic and changing situation - a difficult forecast. Over the last 36 hours all of the models have come significantly further to the South with the track of the LOW which means that the heavy snow band which originally was supposed to be up in northeast PA / the Hudson Valley of New York/ and interior New England is now shifted to the south. But the new afternoon data coming in here around 3pm -- shows that once again the European model is going to end up being correct. the 18z NAM and 18z HRRR - these are short range intermediate models that come out of 2-3PM have now dramatically cut their snow totals and have shoved the precipitation further to the South and show a much much weaker system. If it sounds like I am uncertain it is because I am. And right now every single meteorologist in the NE usa is playing a game of WTF is going on? . NWS has a HUGE amounts of snow in southeast NY and southern New England as does Accuwx and TWC. We are all playing catch up to this constantly changing and weakening system. Normally when you get this closer to an event the models come to good agreement. Instead the data is going in all sorts of different directions only 18 hours before the event Euro wins again-DT That is actually very well written compared to usual comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 From the penthouse to the outhouse in 24hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Euro wins again-DT That is actually very well written compared to usual comments. The Euro may be correct on a more southern track but I wouldnt be crowning it victor as long as the HRRR keeps pushing heavy QPF up into our area. The Euro has basically half the QPF as the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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