snobal Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 things are starting to look good for us in PA . will give it a couple more days to really gain confidence and make a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I like 12z much more. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Thanks, obviously some change there for our neck of the woods. Biggest changes for us. Icon had shown like a2-4 event my way and now gets us in on warning level stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Biggest changes for us. Icon had shown like a2-4 event my way and now gets us in on warning level stuff This first slug is farther west and large it appears. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 CMC is a PA crusher. SLP enters the Atlantic off the NC/VA coast. Large change from 0Z. GFS is more Miller B like again and not ideal for parts of South Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Thank all for sharing thought and maps. And being civil and kind! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 CMC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Thank all for sharing thought and maps. And being civil and kind! Thanks, Maude.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: CMC . Mannnnnnnn Farm Show rule might be back in action, bigly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 CMC .Stop the count. Well, nudge that heavy shit about 15 miles NW, and then stop the count. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The GFS does drop warning level snows before any change over so not terrible...to clarify. Just not a strictly snow system with the proximity of the vort. Almost no snow for MA cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Almost no snow for MA cities. Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The GFS does drop warning level snows before any change over so not terrible...to clarify. Just not a strictly snow system with the proximity of the vort. Almost no snow for MA cities. Just going to post that....crushed before a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Too close for comfort down here with 4 days left to go. For MBY I’d like to see the stronger primary/less confluence trend reverse tonight or tomorrow or we’re in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 If you asked me for an early forecast TODAY, I'd say 4-8" storm for most. Best case would be 6-10". Subject to change as we get closer obviously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: If you asked me for an early forecast TODAY, I'd say 4-8" storm for most. Best case would be 6-10". Subject to change as we get closer obviously. I will ask tomorrow and see what you think then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: If you asked me for an early forecast TODAY, I'd say 4-8" storm for most. Best case would be 6-10". Subject to change as we get closer obviously. My PTSD is starting to kick in. I just need to stay away from the MA Forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 If you asked me for an early forecast TODAY, I'd say 4-8" storm for most. Best case would be 6-10". Subject to change as we get closer obviously. No. Not subject to change. You think they went to the Oracle of Delphi for "forecast subject to change?" They would have thrown that bitch from the top of Olympus. Make you call. Do it now. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I will ask tomorrow and see what you think then. Forecast price menu to be pm'ed to you before the end of the day. We always love our customers. ™ 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: My PTSD is starting to kick in. I just need to stay away from the MA Forum. I think we're ok. There's enough model support for at least 4" at this range imho. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: No. Not subject to change. You think they went to the Oracle of Delphi for "forecast subject to change?" They would have thrown that bitch from the top of Olympus. Make you call. Do it now. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Fear is my friend. I'll take the cliff option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Ukie made big correction south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 21 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Too close for comfort down here with 4 days left to go. For MBY I’d like to see the stronger primary/less confluence trend reverse tonight or tomorrow or we’re in trouble. Yep, but this is par for the normal course of play down here. Only thing I'd add to your thoughts is that while stronger primary can kill thermals, if close enough temp wise qpf can overcome marginal temps. Not saying thats the case but something to ponder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Forecast price menu to be pm'ed to you before the end of the day. We always love our customers. ™ I charge to email people so might be a wash. I am like an attorney without the law degree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 My PTSD is starting to kick in. I just need to stay away from the MA Forum. Yup, same with me going to the PHL thread. Don’t know why I even bother . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The GFS does drop warning level snows before any change over so not terrible...to clarify. Just not a strictly snow system with the proximity of the vort. Almost no snow for MA cities. @Bubbler86You're speaking about a changeover (although not precisely where), but I'll assume SE LSV / Lanco. However, none of my precip-type maps show any changeover anywhere in this region for any period of this storm. Please specify where/what you meant regarding said changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I charge to email people so might be a wash. I am like an attorney without the law degree. Believe me, there are a lot of attorneys seemingly without a law degree, so you'll fit right in. P.s. That really is a great odea charging people for emails. I'm in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie made big correction south. Really? It must have been pretty warm before.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, anotherman said: Really? It must have been pretty warm before.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 My main takeaways/concerns for this event are as follows: The speed of the system. She's a mover. Not going to allow for huge totals. With the tightness of that Low track to our south, I continue to be concerned about some warm air intrusion for those of us along the southern tier. Typical for us, and I do think we'll overcome it for the most part, but always the fly in the ointment. The level of beer stock in my fridge -- too low. Overall though, very pleased to have what looks like a solid forum-wide event in the cards. I'm thinking 4-8" for most, with some 12" lollipops. Onward. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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