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Central PA Winter 23/24

Voyager

By Voyager,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Itstrainingtime
Itstrainingtime

A Season In The Life Of A Central PA Winter Part 1: This is an adaptation from the previous versions of "A Day In the Life Of..." - for this edition, let's take a sneak peek to see what happens d

Itstrainingtime
Itstrainingtime

And now - presenting Part 2 of our typical winter season full of snow maps, snow maps, more snow maps...and...snow maps. Being in the "heart" of winter...this is significantly longer than part 1. 

mahantango#1
mahantango#1

Pics from yesterday:  

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Rain roundup of the typical close LSV NWS stations that do QPF.

 

LNS-2.74

PTW-2.87

MDT-2.62

MUI-2.58

THV-2.32

CXY-2.30

HGR-1.41

 

 

Thanks for getting those numbers!

Interesting that several in this thread reported totals well over any official station. My son actually eclipsed me with his 3.51" total several miles east of me. 

I went to bed at midnight with well over 2" down - I'm honestly a bit surprised that my total didn't reach 4"...I was expecting the early morning hours to overproduce what fell prior to midnight. 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Thanks for getting those numbers!

Interesting that several in this thread reported totals well over any official station. My son actually eclipsed me with his 3.51" total several miles east of me. 

I went to bed at midnight with well over 2" down - I'm honestly a bit surprised that my total didn't reach 4"...I was expecting the early morning hours to overproduce what fell prior to midnight. 

Yea., I did not see any NWS stations that were near 3" around here.  Kphl is at exactly 3" right now.   Going to temper final records for this storm if those numbers are correct.   BWI and DCA were in the mid 2's. 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea., I did not see any NWS stations that we near 3" around here.  Kphl is at exactly 3" right now.   Going to temper final records for this storm if those numbers are correct. 

I know it's going to get windy later on, but I also thought that there would be winds with the storm. That was not the case...top gust here so far is 12 mph.

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I know it's going to get windy later on, but I also thought that there would be winds with the storm. That was not the case...top gust here so far is 12 mph.

The NWS had said they thought the winds were not going to be an issue since they could not mix down (until later today) so they get a gold star on that one! 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

I distinctly remember a respected poster from the Mid-Atlantic region doing a deep dive for dca snowfall for like 30years and pulled in I think at least seasonal average NAO/ENSO values if not monthly for a good portion of his study period to look at correlations. I wish I could find his post because I think he left links to his numerical data/calculations and writeup which was quite good. The thing that always stuck with me about trying to posit correlations with snow with indice values is that some are much more stable on daily, weekly, monthly readings then others (i.e ENSO vs MJO). Most of these indices were invented in the 1970s or later, with limited ability to use distant pass observations to calculate any values outside a best guess for a yearly or seasonal value. The estimates can vary wildly and older studies are super hard to get their data, hell even newer ones can be a bitch to get it coming from an outside academia amateur hobbyist position.

Anyways, I distinctly remember how little seasonal and even monthly nao readings statistically impacted snowfall at DCA. I think maybe if one came up with a large multivariate dynamic system that looked at daily readings of all teleconnections to calculate parameters akin to distance, velocity, acceleration, force, momentum for each indice. While taking account for all the variables effect on each other on different time scales to adjust for inherent stability of each indice. Knowing the daily MJO phase is great, but how deep is it in the phase, how fast (absolute & net) in all plot dimensions is it traveling, same with any acceleration over different time periods, as well as distance. Now how does that daily pattern effect NAO (if at all) on different delayed time scales. If you think of a 7 days or 10 days (I e) of MJO readings as a unique song, then with calculated parameters each day as notes, with each parameters calculated parameters daily (as each notes flavors) over time then you slowly built up groupings via graph theory that essentially group all those songs into genres that have their own unique effects on the other indices depending on time scales. A large regional location like northeast, Midwest, ect maybe able to equate their exposure to genres taking into account order and time effects to a slight moderate correlation with regionwide seasonal snowfall. But even on a statewide level it comes down to randomness with a larger structural environment far more than any of us want to admit

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Great read man, and I totally agree.  Thats why I always share various tellies, as while some indies are major drivers, they still are only 1 piece to a puzzle that is in a state of flux, and while separate in space, are always intertwined in our weather and evolution.  Its not a simple x/y correlation for any 1 telleconnection and what it shows.  Regarding MJO post, I suggested going strongly into 8 because higher amplitude might offset other more muted signals that AO/NAO/PNA were showing.  

Not gonna be able to dive in today (my sons house has 2" water in basement-so I'm at office to clean stuff up, and then going to hang up the santa suit for today (client wise) and put the muck boots on to help my kid.  

Quick look at Ens guidance looks notably better for the holiday week and beyond.  Hoping the evolution continues to work towards a good pattern.

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted

It's amazing looking at the local variance in rainfall in close weather stations. Within 3 miles of my house there are multiple groupings of ones reaporting 1.75" all the way to 3.1". Looking at groupings of 3+ stations all within 1 mile of each other seems to produce 10%-15% variation usually but down in New Cumberland/lower Allan area there are multiple ones with a 25% variations within a mile.


To put this in snow terms it's like if capital city airport got 10", 4 blocks from the airport getting 7.5", camp hill getting 5.5", while Harrisburg airport receiving 12".

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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mahantango#1

mahantango#1

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

It's amazing looking at the local variance in rainfall in close weather stations. Within 3 miles of my house there are multiple groupings of ones reaporting 1.75" all the way to 3.1". Looking at groupings of 3+ stations all within 1 mile of each other seems to produce 10%-15% variation usually but down in New Cumberland/lower Allan area there are multiple ones with a 25% variations within a mile.


To put this in snow terms it's like if capital city airport got 10", 4 blocks from the airport getting 7.5", camp hill getting 5.5", while Harrisburg airport receiving 12".

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

I think MDT would still only report a "T" :D

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

It's amazing looking at the local variance in rainfall in close weather stations. Within 3 miles of my house there are multiple groupings of ones reaporting 1.75" all the way to 3.1". Looking at groupings of 3+ stations all within 1 mile of each other seems to produce 10%-15% variation usually but down in New Cumberland/lower Allan area there are multiple ones with a 25% variations within a mile.


To put this in snow terms it's like if capital city airport got 10", 4 blocks from the airport getting 7.5", camp hill getting 5.5", while Harrisburg airport receiving 12".

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

To me it is pretty weird that no NWS station reported anything near 3" with all the local reports of it.   Talk about variations, we now have close to 20" yearly differences between the North LSV and SW (or just out of it) LSV. 

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted
Great read man, and I totally agree.  Thats why I always share various tellies, as while some indies are major drivers, they still are only 1 piece to a puzzle that is in a state of flux, and while separate in space, are always intertwined in our weather and evolution.  Its not a simple x/y correlation for any 1 telleconnection and what it shows.  Regarding MJO post, I suggested going strongly into 8 because higher amplitude might offset other more muted signals that AO/NAO/PNA were showing.  
Not gonna be able to dive in today (my sons house has 2" water in basement-so I'm at office to clean stuff up, and then going to hang up the santa suit for today (client wise) and put the muck boots on to help my kid.  
Quick look at Ens guidance looks notably better for the holiday week and beyond.  Hoping the evolution continues to work towards a good pattern.
A mental model I have is that it that seasonally we usually have one indice thats more "sticky" in both direction and amplitude. Further, if you look into how each one is calculated you quickly realize some are much more surface based rather than atmosphere based and that I should of paid more attention in those advanced diff equations, linear algebra, and adv statistics courses to grasp what the hell the equations are doing to the raw data to produce the final value

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

You forgot MJS, or shall I say KMJS, checking in at 2.85".  I am now sitting at 37.36" for the year, only a few inches below average.

That is real close to what I believe MDT's number is right now (not sure the records site has today's number in it yet).    Their norm for year sits around 42.78 doing some quick math if I have the right numbers so they are about 5-6" below normal as of today.   They seem locked in to be about 5" or more BN year end.   Using MDT's numbers here at my place,  which officially is what we should do, we are going to be 16-18" below normal for the year. 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The local ski areas got decimated the past couple of days - Roundtop's cams this morning are...depressing. 

That'll change come the New Year. Ensembles are sweet and every MJO forecast is outstanding, except the Australian BOMM, which should be bombed it's so bad. It had a Niño peak >+3C!!!

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