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Yesvember or November?


Go Kart Mozart
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37 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

To start the month It seems we have a series of waves diving out of far eastern Siberia into the GOA.  As long as they crest at the longitude of Kodiak Island or west, we would seem to have some weather of interest heading our way.  If they crest up tight against Juneau....keep the mower handy!

It’s not a bad way to look at it actually…

… seems we are trying to establish a tendency to oscillate between a neutral and a negative EPO phase state. That high latitude “cresting” reflects that.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s not a bad way to look at it actually…

… seems we are trying to establish a tendency to oscillate between a neutral and a negative EPO phase state. That high latitude “cresting” reflects that.

I would do anything if we can keep a -epo going during winter in particular but fall is ok also. I still feel like we have both niña and niño currently but just imo.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Eps looks pretty nice for the timeframe that the gfs has the storm .

Yep, modest cross-guidance support for cold.  If we wanna get a snow event out of early November climatology, this look isn't a bad canvas.  No promises of course -

(edit: it's more the spatial orientation of the flow than it is in the numerical teleconnector - for now)

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1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I would do anything if we can keep a -epo going during winter in particular but fall is ok also. I still feel like we have both niña and niño currently but just imo.

Other solid posters have been pushing that sentiment. Could be true ... Not to be contrarian but I suspect what's really going on is that there is too much attempt to see the present shenanigans of the system as ( coupled + assigning pattern order)/2   = both ways?   Problem with that is, the atmospheric system moves like water in that it will always do so via the pathway of lowest resistance. 

creating NINO and NINA, simultaneously ... doesn't intuitively or logically seem to satisfy that.  It's more like that there isn't much coupling at all and it may at times (thus) just look one way or the other. 

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1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I would do anything if we can keep a -epo going during winter in particular but fall is ok also. I still feel like we have both niña and niño currently but just imo.

Playing with fire with a -EPO though. Sometimes it’s EPOh-no because storms can cut west of us with a -EPO.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yep, modest cross-guidance support for cold.  If we wanna get a snow event out of early November climatology, this look isn't a bad canvas.  No promises of course -

(edit: it's more the spatial orientation of the flow than it is in the numerical teleconnector - for now)

Split flow underneath a cold Canada and northern tier is showing up on a lot of medium/Long range guidance. Definitely some potential I think in that 11/8-11/12 window…the 11/1 threat looks just too compressed and SE to be able to make a late comeback, but I do like the chances of another model threat or two coming up, even if they don’t pan out. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Playing with fire with a -EPO though. Sometimes it’s EPOh-no because storms can cut west of us with a -EPO.

After last year, I presume a cut can happen any pattern configuration. I know in unlikely to get it but honestly just a normal temp winter would be wonderful. I’m tired of torches. Warm maxes and warm lows. 

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48 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

After last year, I presume a cut can happen any pattern configuration. I know in unlikely to get it but honestly just a normal temp winter would be wonderful. I’m tired of torches. Warm maxes and warm lows. 

It depends exactly where the ridge axis is. If it’s on the ern side of the domain it can act more like a +PNA. But people get enamored because it delivers the cold shots,  but you risk the cold dumping into the plains many times which puts us at risk for something cutting into NY state. Obviously I’d rather have that vs last years -PNA. 

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It depends exactly where the ridge axis is. If it’s on the ern side of the domain it can act more like a +PNA. But people get enamored because it delivers the cold shots,  but you risk the cold dumping into the plains many times which puts us at risk for something cutting into NY state. Obviously I’d rather have that vs last years -PNA. 

You could see this as a correction in the week leading up to the Buffalo Bomb last December. 

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10 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It depends exactly where the ridge axis is. If it’s on the ern side of the domain it can act more like a +PNA. But people get enamored because it delivers the cold shots,  but you risk the cold dumping into the plains many times which puts us at risk for something cutting into NY state. Obviously I’d rather have that vs last years -PNA. 

I like seeing the PV pinned in SE Canada with blocking over the top. would like to see more of a +PNA instead of neutral/slightly negative but this could work

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_34.png

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35 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I like seeing the PV pinned in SE Canada with blocking over the top. would like to see more of a +PNA instead of neutral/slightly negative but this could work

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_34.png

Yeah, I’m just speaking in general regarding the EPO. Some seem to think it’s a lock for snow, but not always.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Still a chance some areas could see first flakes Wednesday with the s/w moving through. Some guidance has enough moisture combined with a weak inv trough to perhaps trigger a few ra/sn shwrs.

It's probably short concern for most but for me ... this NAM FOUS grid is clad for first entry into a snow atmosphere this season.  Not bad -

Maybe early snow -like synoptics in recent years has sort of muted the significance. Haha, they didn't seem to parlay very well into the ensuing winters.  Obviously we know there's no real correlation other than noise but it was what it was. 

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