Ji Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 On 11/19/2023 at 7:35 AM, psuhoffman said: Come on. That’s mostly just details emerging as the lead time shortens. There was never enough antecedent cold for that wave to be a legit snow threat. never talked about snow threat. I wanted a 42 degree Thanksgiving day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: All of these type of stats are very small sample size. I think that’s a meaningless quirk. The 4" plus dataset is likely skewed by the fact some of those events were huge...Like Dec 2009! The other categories have an upward range limit while that category does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ji said: never talked about snow threat. I wanted a 42 degree Thanksgiving day A long range mean h5 ensemble plot is not very useful for predicting the exact high temperature or frontal boundary location on a specific day. The guidance was way more right than wrong about the longwave pattern and that is what the goal should be on a day 10 ensemble mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 WB 12Z GEFS late next week, snow storm or not TBD but at least there is not a SE ridge.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS late next week, snow storm or not TBD but at least there is not a SE ridge.... Nice. Wonder how that’ll evolve. Maybe that EC trough turns into a 50/50 while the wave off the west coast undercuts the pna to give us an overrunning event. But that’s wishcasting at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 A thought I had about our upcoming winter and the PSU stats. Isn't is possible that, since December seems to act less and less like winter of late and March is acting more and more like winter, the PSU stats/theory don't matter as much or perhaps the first measurable snow could be later into December and we could still have a blockbuster winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: A thought I had about our upcoming winter and the PSU stats. Isn't is possible that, since December seems to act less and less like winter of late and March is acting more and more like winter, the PSU stats/theory don't matter as much or perhaps the first measurable snow could be later into December and we could still have a blockbuster winter? Of course its possible...but we have seen no objective evidence of that yet. Maybe that is simply because all of our winters lately have been crap so there are no test cases. Maybe we start to see examples where the whole area torches early and still recovers to have a snowy winter but until that happens...I would simply root for cold/snow early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 2 hours ago, aldie 22 said: Wonder how much has changed in the last 13 years found this work done by Ender on here back in 2010...i guess you can file this in the PSU first inch category of analysis. After reading mention of the "mid-Atlantic December 5th rule" I decided to take a look at historical DCA first .5" or greater snowfall dates and the implications for the ensuing winter. Here's what I found: If the first such measurement was in the month of November (11 cases) then the winter averaged 17.1" with 13.7" falling after the first Nov snowfall. If the first .5" or greater fell between 12/1 and 12/15 (17 cases) there Winter averaged 21.3" with 17.9" falling after the first event. If the first .5" was between 12/16 and 12/31 (13 years) then Winter averaged 19.2" with 15.4" falling after that first snowfall. If the first .5" was in the month of January (21 years) then the entire winter only pulled 12.1" with another 9.5" falling after the first snowfall. Looking at the results from the angle of first snowfall depth was somewhat more interesting. If the first snowfall was >4" then the season as a whole averaged 28.3" with 20.1" falling after the first storm. A total of 16 years met this criteria. If the first snow was between 2" and 3.9" then the winter's total averaged at 11.5" with 8.75" falling after the first event. In the 20 years where the first storm was between 1" and 1.9" the winter averaged 15.2" with 13.8" falling after that first snowfall. A total of nine winters saw a first .5" or greater snowfall of between .5" and .9" and those winters only averaged 12.3" for the entire winter. NOTE: I only considered a snowfall the "first snowfall" if the measurement was >=.5". So if .1" fell on 11/17 and .2" fell on 11/22 and .9" fell on 12/3 then as far as this "research" is concerned the first snowfall was the .9" event on 12/3. The average of the entire data set (1945 - 2010) was 16.5". Damn man…that’s your first meaningful contribution to this board in years. Nice work! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2023 Author Share Posted November 20, 2023 Pattern shown around Xmas at Roundy’s link would get a lot of fans 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Pattern shown around Xmas at Roundy’s link would get a lot of fans Extended products depict a continuation of Aleutian low/AK ridge well into December. Good sign as we move forward into early winter. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2023 Author Share Posted November 20, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Extended products depict a continuation of Aleutian low/AK ridge well into December. Good sign as we move forward into early winter. Webb responded to his tweet with something basically like “yup, called that December torch!” I wanna be like “Bra, did you even click the link??” 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Webb responded to his tweet with something basically like “yup, called that December torch!” I wanna be like “Bra, did you even click the link??” I see blues and reds in wat I think are good places, but I don't *really* know what I'm looking at (but at least I looked). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 1 minute ago, mattie g said: I see blues and reds in wat I think are good places, but I don't *really* know what I'm looing at. *puts on @ravensrule mask* If you don't know where you're peeing at I think you have bigger problems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Extended products depict a continuation of Aleutian low/AK ridge well into December. Good sign as we move forward into early winter. Get the general pattern set up now and we wait and watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Just now, mattie g said: Get the general pattern set up now and we wait and watch. All we can look at at this stage (that and PSU's inch, that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2023 Author Share Posted November 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Extended products depict a continuation of Aleutian low/AK ridge well into December. Good sign as we move forward into early winter. 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: I see blues and reds in wat I think are good places, but I don't *really* know what I'm looking at (but at least I looked). FWIW (not much), yesterdays GEFS extended has similarities around Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2023 Author Share Posted November 20, 2023 GGEM and Euro both have a pretty tasty setup around Saturday/Sunday. Neither really come together, but the players are there with a transient 50/50, fresh high coming in on top of low forming in the Plains and riding the thermal boundary eastward. Both models have another northern stream shortwave come in and mix everything up. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: FWIW (not much), yesterdays GEFS extended has similarities around Xmas. Latest MJO forecasts- GEFS takes the wave into phase 3 as it rapidly weakens, and entering the COD as it gets to phase 4. Euro weakens it as it progresses through phase 2 and into the COD before phase 3. All the models on the CPC site have the convection suppressed at the end of Nov. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM and Euro both have a pretty tasty setup around Saturday/Sunday. Neither really come together, but the players are there with a transient 50/50, fresh high coming in on top of low forming in the Plains and riding the thermal boundary eastward. Both models have another northern stream shortwave come in and mix everything up. This is another thing I've ben watching - how the timing of waves plays with the injection of cold air. I'd sign on the dotted line right now if we could get a winter in which we have waves riding from the southwest along the thermal boundary and throwing moisture up and over fresh, cold airmasses. Easy 3-6"/4-8" without worrying about the mids torching as warm air screams in aloft from the south. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Trying to get the ducks on the pond. I see the better-looking pattern Saturday/Sunday - Maybe something comes up that is not clear yet. Enjoying the watch as we actually have stuff to watch. May not mean a thing, but not boring! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 The El Nino is really spiking up right now, both on the surface and in the subsurface, passing +2.0 in Nino 3.4. LR GEFS shows a healthy N. Pacific low: https://ibb.co/xj57pjJ But it also has some ridging in the NE from +NAO, that will need to be sorted out in future model runs (NAO region has been volatile at that range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Someone should open the December thread. May the Force be with you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2023 Author Share Posted November 20, 2023 Just now, Weather Will said: Someone should open the December thread. May the Force be with you! Not yet. Still things in November we’re watching. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 WB latest EURO weeklies for the holiday week. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 19 hours ago, clskinsfan said: Stats are how we kind of track correlation though arent they? I am almost 55 years old and have tracked winter since I was 9 or 10 years old. So while my sample size is small my stats are all I know. And what I know from my stats is if late November/Early December suck we are most likely screwed. Now this is MY observation of MY life. Does that really mean or matter anything to anyone else? Who knows. But snow is an IMBY game. It always has been. i feel like there's more of a correlation w/ the cold rather than the snow. like i think it'd be worth looking into if somebody looks at how winters turn out if it's cold in november/early dec since you won't always get snow w/ cold in the early season, especially with AGW where we get near perfect track rainstorms in the early season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 23 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB latest EURO weeklies for the holiday week. thats been way too consisent. Something is going to break lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Really getting cold after this Wave #3. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/10m_wnd_2m_temp/gfs_namer_237_10m_wnd_2m_temp.gif Colder than 12z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Really getting cold after this Wave #3. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/10m_wnd_2m_temp/gfs_namer_237_10m_wnd_2m_temp.gif Colder than 12z run Looks cold and dry and transient though. Still all over the place from run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 Just now, Terpeast said: Looks cold and dry and transient though We tend to be a little drier in Nov and Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 As I said Sunday morning, a few changes would give many in our region 4 - 8 inches of snow tomorrow. The NWS establishes a base of support with a WWA with the retreating cold air source and LP into the Ohio Valley. A terrible early season synoptic that chirps. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ025&warncounty=VAC015&firewxzone=VAZ025&local_place1=4 Miles SSE Churchville VA&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=38.1779&lon=-79.1425 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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