NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The HREF out output looks more like something we see with a tropical system. The mean would be significant enough. But that max potential would really be tough for any locales than can even come within a few inches of that. This is a tropical system. It's what is leftover from Ophelia that is fueling this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Hrrr still favoring LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Hrrr still favoring LI It moved a little west from 12z but yes still a huge drenching. The inverted trough and upper air dynamics will focus the very moist flow coming in from the east, where that axis sets up will get walloped. And over time it’s expected to pivot around so even though not all of us will get 10”, many will probably get 3-4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 big bump upward ATM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Hrrr still favoring LI Map ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Map ? through 30 hrs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This is a tropical system. It's what is leftover from Ophelia that is fueling this. I just mean so long after the landfall on Saturday. This may be one of the most delayed post tropical remnant systems that we have had. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: through 30 hrs And it’s still raining then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: And it’s still raining then. I'll post the full run soon but it may show 20 inches somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 28, 2023 Author Share Posted September 28, 2023 Smattering of 0.01-.02 se NYS and NJ so far since midday including Wantage NJ. Global models not changing too much on amounts...general 1-3 spot 4. Blend of Models, 13z/28 version, finally hammered NYC/e NJ etc with 4-7" but this takes into account the the mesoscale models. Those mesoscale continue bullish, though I think shifting east to favor more LI/CT, NYC/Hud River and extreme e NJ... their amounts seem so high for a cooler surface temp/dewpoint. My guess is the RRFS is too far west with BOM near NYC and the HRRR SPC HREF more CT/LI eastern NJ/NYC seem to me more probable, at least at this juncture, but could still shift a bit. I added SPC HREF chance of 3" in 6 hrs ending 18z/29 (grey-20% chance), and its overall 48 hour mean and max. These are big numbers... but for me disturbing that the globals including SREF are considerably less. Click for clarity. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 I have to give @wdragkudos for seeing this storm potential early on. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 -RA intermittent from 245pm on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 34 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Not in all cases but usually in these potential high end flood events NE NJ and the NYC metro are where the heaviest rainfall amounts and the most serious flooding occur. We'll see if that is the case this time around. As you know we flood here in Carteret with a lot less. We had damage and issues from Sandy of course, but Irene was far worse for us with regard to the flooding. And the ground around here is quite saturated already! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Maureen said: As you know we flood here in Carteret with a lot less. We had damage and issues from Sandy of course, but Irene was far worse for us with regard to the flooding. And the ground around here is quite saturated already! Ida was by far the worst I have ever seen this town flood and I have been here for a long time and have seen many flood events over the years here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I have to give @wdragkudos for seeing this storm potential early on. Absolutely. Kudos to @wdrag. I was hoping he was wrong but here we are. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Map ? Driving. By the way it's already pouring in monmouth on 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Excessive Rainfall DiscussionNWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD1154 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023Day 1Valid 16Z Thu Sep 28 2023 - 12Z Fri Sep 29 2023...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT OVER PORTIONSOF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST......16Z Update...In coordination with the local WFO offices in Mount Holly andUpton, have upgraded the D1 ERO to a Slight Risk given the trendsin short term guidance in terms of placement and magnitude ofheavy rainfall this evening. General synoptic scale patternremains fairly similar to previous forecast package, but moreemphasis on heavy rain potential has arose given the signals onthe latest ensemble means and deterministic QPF distribution. 12zHREF neighborhood probabilities of >1" and >2" totals acrossnorthern and central NJ, as well as the NYC metro into thesouthern Catskills was sufficient to upgrade the area to the SLGTrisk. There is still some discrepancy on the exact placement ofthe heaviest QPF footprint, however the highly anomalous u-vectorwind fields across northern NJ and adjacent areas are allprevalent across all guidance which would generate a robustupslope component typically found in these types of heavy rainevents. Convective potential is still on the low side, butnon-zero given the theta-E advection regime likely overnight intoearly tomorrow morning as indicated by all deterministic, globalor hi-res base. Total QPF between 1-2" with locally as high as 4"are being depicted within the HREF blended mean QPF which onlylends credence to the higher potential with the SLGT. Main areasof concern will be the higher terrain in NNJ and southern NYstate, as well as the urban areas in-of NYC/Newark/Jersey City. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.shtml#page=ero 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 First soaking rain band just moved through the Ocean County beaches. Second one incoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Absolutely. Kudos to @wdrag. I was hoping he was wrong but here we are. Did well here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Just now, Big Jims Videos said: First soaking rain band just moved through the Ocean County beaches. Second one incoming. Here it comes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Ida was by far the worst I have ever seen this town flood and I have been here for a long time and have seen many flood events over the years here. Oh yes, Ida was crazy! No doubt the OEM is keeping a close eye on this event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 18z NAM is East lol 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Chatting with some of our mets the concern is growing here in NJ. Will probably have to double up on the rain gear for the morning shows tomorrow. No panic bells and alarms just YET but this evening's newscasts will certainly have a different tone than this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z NAM is East lol still really bad, just in a different spot than 12z. still going too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z NAM is East lol Western CT JP this run--will likely come down to a now cast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 3K NAM looks nothing like the 12K-has an area of 26 inches off the NJ coast... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 NAM has 7-8" just E of TTN... still very significant. it's clear that this system is going to lead to major issues somewhere. NE NJ / Monmouth / NYC is favored, but it's still up in the air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 3K NAM looks nothing like the 12K Yeah 3km is suddlenly much less bullish on anyone in the tri-state getting huge amounts. Keeps the extremely heavy stuff to the southeast off the coast. As many have pointed out, this is the type of event that is incredibly hard to predict. We won't know until tomorrow what area will get under the extremely heavy band. Hopefully it will miss like 3km NAM shows, but who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 if the 12k nam is right i might have to buy a boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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