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September 2023


Stormlover74
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A major to historic rainstorm is winding down. Excessive rainfall amounts include:

Hartford: 3.74" (new daily record for September 29)
New York City-Central Park: 5.58" (8th highest daily figure)
New York City-JFK Airport: 8.05" (new all-time daily record) ***storm total: 8.67" (new 2-day record)***
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 4.10"

Tomorrow will be drier and the clouds could break. Afterward, a spell of warmer than normal weather lies ahead for much of the first week of October.

There remain indications that colder air could push into the region afterward, possibly preceded by yet another storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around September 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.55°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -7.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.219 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.4° (0.2° above normal).

 

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Wettest September on record at JFK and 2nd wettest in NYC.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2023 12.79 1
2 1975 9.65 0
3 1960 9.60 0
4 2004 8.25 0
5 1966 7.47 0
6 2008 6.74 0
7 1999 6.73 0
8 1977 6.69 0
9 2018 5.99 0
10 1974 5.97 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1882 16.85 0
2 2023 14.21 1
3 1934 11.96 0
4 2004 11.51 0
5 1944 10.30 0
6 1933 10.09 0
7 2021 10.03 0
8 2011 9.39 0
9 1975 9.32 0
10 1938 9.06 0
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The last day of September is averaging  60degs.(58/62) or -5.

Month to date is   69.7[+0.3].      September should end at   69.4[+0.1].

Week 1 of October is averaging  72degs.(64/81) or +10.

Reached 61 here yesterday.

Today:   62-65, wind n., Drizzle till 2pm, breaks, 59 tomorrow AM.

58*(99%RH) here at 7am.      57* at 9am-Rain.     60* at Noon.     63* at 1pm.

 

 

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Even with the cool and wet ending to the month, several stations will finish with another 70° September.

 

Data for September 1, 2023 through September 30, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Avg Temperature 
NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 72.4
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 71.4
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 71.3
NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 70.5
NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 70.4
NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 70.4
NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 70.1


 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2005 74.9 0
2 2015 74.1 0
3 2016 73.8 0
4 1961 73.6 0
5 2007 73.0 0
6 2018 72.8 0
7 2021 72.7 0
8 2010 72.5 0
- 1959 72.5 0
9 2019 72.1 0
10 1998 71.6 0
11 2017 71.5 0
12 2023 71.3 1
- 2002 71.3 0
13 2020 71.1 0
14 2022 70.9 0
15 1971 70.8 0
16 2012 70.7 0
- 2011 70.7 0
- 2004 70.7 0
- 1985 70.7 0
17 1983 70.6 0
- 1968 70.6 0
18 2014 70.4 0
- 2008 70.4 0
- 1980 70.4 0
- 1970 70.4 0
- 1941 70.4 0
19 1965 70.3 0
- 1953 70.3 0
- 1945 70.3 0
20 1999 70.2 0
- 1957 70.2 0
21 1952 70.1 0
- 1946 70.1 0
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Even with the cool and wet ending to the month, several stations will finish with another 70° September.

 

Data for September 1, 2023 through September 30, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Avg Temperature 
NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 72.4
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 71.4
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 71.3
NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 70.5
NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 70.4
NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 70.4
NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 70.1


 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2005 74.9 0
2 2015 74.1 0
3 2016 73.8 0
4 1961 73.6 0
5 2007 73.0 0
6 2018 72.8 0
7 2021 72.7 0
8 2010 72.5 0
- 1959 72.5 0
9 2019 72.1 0
10 1998 71.6 0
11 2017 71.5 0
12 2023 71.3 1
- 2002 71.3 0
13 2020 71.1 0
14 2022 70.9 0
15 1971 70.8 0
16 2012 70.7 0
- 2011 70.7 0
- 2004 70.7 0
- 1985 70.7 0
17 1983 70.6 0
- 1968 70.6 0
18 2014 70.4 0
- 2008 70.4 0
- 1980 70.4 0
- 1970 70.4 0
- 1941 70.4 0
19 1965 70.3 0
- 1953 70.3 0
- 1945 70.3 0
20 1999 70.2 0
- 1957 70.2 0
21 1952 70.1 0
- 1946 70.1 0

Good morning B W. After looking at your top list for September temperature  data, perhaps the CPK ASOS may be an appropriate place for individuals, who still don’t believe in the changing climate, to meet. Stay well, as always ……

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34 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning B W. After looking at your top list for September temperature  data, perhaps the CPK ASOS may be an appropriate place for individuals, who still don’t believe in the changing climate, to meet. Stay well, as always ……

At least to me, it’s more an issue of the long term integrity of the site than any climate change influence. Up through the 1980s, there was much less obstruction from trees. So comparing the pre-90s new ASOS observations to today is more like a change of location. So it’s hard to compare changes over time since fundamental way of measurements were taken there has changed. So artificially cooled lower highs during the leaf out season and more potential errors in measuring rainfall with trees sheltering the rain gauge and leaves possibly falling into the gauge. Plus professional snowfall measurements by NWS staff before they moved to OKX in the early 90s. To more sporadic measurements at times by different organizations that often measure too late after small snow events allowing the melt to lower the snowfall amounts.
The article below is from 20 years ago and the tree growth has only increased.

http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html

 

Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

(New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy.
Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather
information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the
equipment buried in Central Park.

Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information
recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of
Central Park.

But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the
accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he
says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can
warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is
in the shade instead of direct sunlight.

Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car
without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with
false information."

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather
readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at
the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet
of the station.

Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that
leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with
visibility sensors."

[NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is
there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence
in the park.

He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much
in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park
than at the airports.

Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of
the vegetation."

Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record
of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says
its a city that deserves better.

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."


Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least to me, it’s more an issue of the long term integrity of the site than any climate change influence. Up through the 1980s, there was much less obstruction from trees. So comparing the pre-90s new ASOS observations to today is more like a change of location. So it’s hard to compare changes over time since fundamental way of measurements were taken there has changed. So artificially cooled lower highs during the leaf out season and more potential errors in measuring rainfall with trees sheltering the rain gauge and leaves possibly falling into the gauge. Plus professional snowfall measurements by NWS staff before they moved to OKX in the early 90s. To more sporadic measurements at times by different organizations that often measure too late after small snow events allowing the melt to lower the snowfall amounts.
The article below is from 20 years ago and the tree growth has only increased.

 

Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

(New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy.
Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather
information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the
equipment buried in Central Park.

Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information
recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of
Central Park.

But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the
accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he
says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can
warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is
in the shade instead of direct sunlight.

Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car
without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with
false information."

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather
readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at
the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet
of the station.

Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that
leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with
visibility sensors."

[NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is
there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence
in the park.

He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much
in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park
than at the airports.

Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of
the vegetation."

Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record
of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says
its a city that deserves better.

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."


Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

 

 

 

Sadly it a long/hard learn …. 20 years into the demonstrative lesson. As always …..

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4 minutes ago, rclab said:

Sadly it a long/hard learn …. 20 years into the demonstrative lesson. As always …..

I miss the old days when the NWS were in 30 Rock and they would go over to the park for measurements and make sure tree growth wasn’t impinging on the observations. 

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59 / 58 continued 8 of 10 days if clouds and 3.01 inches from this event (luckily was just SW of the worst flooding)   12 more hours of the dingy grey and mist.  Sun (10/1)  starts feeling like we are in a warm pattern/ridging and out of the coold/rainy "oasis". Still some NNE flow through the week but very warm air all around against averages.  80s for the warm spots (park may stay 5 - 8 degrees below other sites with the growth).    Peak warmth Wed - Thu (10/4).   

Trough into the GL/MW by the end of the week with front approaching Sat (10/6).   Cooler period 10/ 8 - 10/11 looks like frost in the mountains/NW section as currently projected.    Ridge into the NW pushes east by mud month and warmer one the other end of the middle 10/16 or so.  We'll see how dry the 10/1 - 10/15 period can remain - tendency is for hung up fronts and it wants to rain here.

 

vis_nj_anim.gif 

 

 

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NYC is the new Riverhead.;)

 

Data for September 1, 2023 through September 30, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Avg Temperature 
NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 72.4
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 71.4
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 71.3
NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 70.5
NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 70.4
NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 70.2
NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 70.1
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 69.7
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 69.7
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 69.6
CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 69.5
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Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 89 (1986)
NYC: 89 (1986)
LGA: 88 (1986)


Lows:

EWR: 38 (1942)
NYC: 39 (2012)
LGA: 43 (1947)

Historical:

 

 

1896: A hurricane formed on September 22 and lasted until September 30. It formed directly over the Lesser Antilles and hit Cuba, Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina, Virginia, Washington D.C., and Pennsylvania. Its maximum sustained winds were at 130 mph. The heaviest rainfall deposited in association with the storm was 19.96 inches at Glennville, Georgia. This hurricane was responsible for an estimated 130 deaths and $1.5 million in damage (1896 dollars).

1959 - Three tornadoes spawned by the remnants of Hurricane Gracie killed 12 persons at Ivy VA. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - A nineteen month drought in southern California came to a climax. The drought, which made brush and buildings tinder dry, set up the worst fire conditions in California history as hot Santa Anna winds sent the temperature soaring to 105 degrees at Los Angeles, and to 97 degrees at San Diego. During that last week of September whole communities of interior San Diego County were consumed by fire. Half a million acres were burned, and the fires caused fifty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1977 - The temperature at Wichita Falls, TX, soared to 108 degrees to establish a record for September. (The Weather Channel)

1986 - Thunderstorms, which had inundated northern sections of Oklahoma with heavy rain, temporarily shifted southward producing 4 to 8 inches rains from Shawnee to Stilwell. Baseball size hail and 80 mph winds ripped through parts of southeast Oklahoma City, and thunderstorm winds caused more than half a million dollars damage at Shawnee. (Storm Data)

1987 - Afternoon thunderstorms in Michigan produced hail an inch in diameter at Pinckney, and wind gusts to 68 mph at Wyandotte. A thunderstorm in northern Indiana produced wet snow at South Bend. Seven cities in the northwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including readings of 98 degrees at Medford OR and 101 degrees at downtown Sacramento CA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed over Florida, and in the western U.S. The afternoon high of 94 degrees at Fort Myers FL was their tenth record high for the month. Highs of 98 degrees at Medford OR and 99 degrees at Fresno CA were records for the date, and the temperature at Borrego Springs CA soared to 108 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thirteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, as readings soared into the upper 80s and 90s from the Northern and Central High Plains Region to Minnesota. Bismarck ND reported a record high of 95 degrees, and the temperature reached 97 degrees at Broadus MT. Afternoon thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced wind gusts to 60 mph at Wendover UT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1992: The past month was the coldest September ever recorded in interior Alaska. Fairbanks averaged a frigid 31.7° which was 13.2° below normal and the first below freezing September ever. Beginning on the 9th and on every day for the rest of the month, a new record low was set for either low minimums or low maximums, or both. On this date, the city plunged to 3° to set a new all-time record low for September. Snowfall for the month totaled 24.4 inches which was more than three times the previous record for September.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

NYC is the new Riverhead.;)

 

Data for September 1, 2023 through September 30, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Avg Temperature 
NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 72.4
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 71.4
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 71.3
NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 70.5
NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 70.4
NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 70.2
NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 70.1
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 69.7
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 69.7
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 69.6
CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 69.5

 

It'll be interesting to see high differences between NYC (park) and EWR/New Brnswck/ LGA etc Mon - Wed this week.

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September is concluding with a mean temperature of 69.4° in New York City. That is 0.2° above normal.

A spell of warmer than normal weather lies ahead for much of the first week of October. Temperatures could reach 80° or above on several days next week.

However, this warmth will be minor compared to the record-breaking heat that will start October in parts of the Plains States and Midwest. Today, Macomb, IL reached 98°. The previous latest-season 90° reading occurred on September 4, 1906. Moreover, that tied the September monthly record.

There remain indications that colder air could push into the East near the start of the second week of October or just afterward, possibly preceded by yet another storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around September 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.55°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -7.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.219 today.

 

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Top 10 warmest September at ISP and EWR. The 91-20 climate normals have warmed so much, that it only takes a +1.7 at ISP for the 7th warmest September temperature. 


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2015 70.9 0
2 2005 70.2 0
3 2018 69.8 0
4 2021 69.6 0
- 1980 69.6 0
5 2017 69.0 0
- 2011 69.0 0
6 2016 68.9 0
7 2023 68.6 0
- 1998 68.6 0
8 2010 68.3 0
9 2022 68.2 0
10 1983 68.1 0
- 1971 68.1 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1961 74.5 0
2 2005 73.5 0
3 2015 73.4 0
4 2021 72.5 0
5 2016 71.8 0
- 1971 71.8 0
6 2010 71.6 0
7 1959 71.5 0
8 2018 71.4 0
9 2023 71.2 0
- 2011 71.2 0
10 1973 71.0 0
- 1931 71.0 0
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On 10/1/2023 at 6:56 AM, bluewave said:

Top 10 warmest September at ISP and EWR. The 91-20 climate normals have warmed so much, that it only takes a +1.7 at ISP for the 7th warmest September temperature. 


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2015 70.9 0
2 2005 70.2 0
3 2018 69.8 0
4 2021 69.6 0
- 1980 69.6 0
5 2017 69.0 0
- 2011 69.0 0
6 2016 68.9 0
7 2023 68.6 0
- 1998 68.6 0
8 2010 68.3 0
9 2022 68.2 0
10 1983 68.1 0
- 1971 68.1 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1961 74.5 0
2 2005 73.5 0
3 2015 73.4 0
4 2021 72.5 0
5 2016 71.8 0
- 1971 71.8 0
6 2010 71.6 0
7 1959 71.5 0
8 2018 71.4 0
9 2023 71.2 0
- 2011 71.2 0
10 1973 71.0 0
- 1931 71.0 0

LOL, That's because Islip only has a 61 yr period of record. 94 years shorter than Central Park. 

Rinse, wash, repeat.....next thing you know you'll be posting temp obs for a helicopter pad.

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14 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

LOL, That's because Islip only has a 61 yr period of record. 94 years shorter than Central Park. 

Rinse, wash, repeat.....next thing you know you'll be posting temp obs for a helicopter pad.

It’s because they are measuring the high temperatures now in NYC underneath trees. The thermometer was out in the open before the 90s. So this invalidates comparisons to NYC high temperatures before the change in observation methodology. Just add a few degrees to the NYC high temperatures and they would have as many top 10 warmest finishes as the other sites do. Even the new WTC station right on NY Harbor with local sea breezes finished the month above 70°.

https://facilityexecutive.com/world-trade-center-weather-station-offers-insights-for-facilities/

Monthly Data for September 2023 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Avg Temperature 
NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 71.7
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 71.2
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 71.0
NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 70.4
NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 70.2
NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 69.9
NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 69.8
NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 69.5
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 69.4
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 69.4
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 69.4
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