Hurricane Idalia

[NERMAN]

10 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Last year on the morning Ian hit Florida Tampa Bay was in the center of the cone. Folks in Sanibel Island and Ft. Myers were relaxing thinking it was going to miss them to the west.

Yep, they should have evacuated all of those low lying areas in advance. The loss of life particularly in Ft Myers could have been avoided. But I also remember reading a lot of the locals refused to leave. I mean, they had a major tracking toward them for days.  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

[Master of Disaster]

FEMA did a study and report a few years ago about phased evacuations. There are 5 parts of the process and like 15 critical factors that determine compliance with an evac order. Some of which are funds available. Family locations. Previous experience and other things. If I can find the report I'll link it. 

[dbullsfan]

Last year on the morning Ian hit Florida Tampa Bay was in the center of the cone. Folks in Sanibel Island and Ft. Myers were relaxing thinking it was going to miss them to the west.

Sanibel Island isn’t protected by Pirates.. I kid about the pirates but there has to be a reason the TB area gets hit directly or even slightly indirectly by a Cane once every 100 years. This could be that one time, right now every indication is that it isn’t and it is well off the coast when it passes by and lands up in the peninsula. We had this conversation with Ian and at least one Hurricane every year going back for forever when the early models put TB in the cone.


.

[LakeEffectKing]

56 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

How have you been?

Good Howard!  Just not posting as much. Always have a little time when there's going to be a big one.

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, Seminole said:

Expected this given the 0Z was off with intensity this morning. Any shift in landfall? 

12Z Euro is ~20 miles NW of 0Z Euro landfall, which was ~30 miles NW of Cedar Key. So, now ~50 miles NW of Cedar Key. It landfalls at ~10 AM Wednesday vs ~8AM Wednesday. And as I said significantly stronger with ~970 mb on 12Z Euro vs 987 mb on 0Z.

[Seminole]

Just now, GaWx said:

 ~20 miles NW of 0Z landfall, which was ~30 miles NW of Cedar Key. So, now ~50 miles NW of Cedar Key. It landfalls at ~10 AM Wednesday  vs ~8AM Wednesday.

Thank you. Given my proximity I am hanging on every model update. Going to decide tomorrow to ride it out or bug out. 

[Retrobuc]

Ok, need your help.  I'm a lurker whose read this board for awhile.  I have niece who moved from PA to St Pete on Saturday and this is her welcome! She doesnt know if she should leave her apartment, she is on the border of evac zones A&B.  I said she should, but dont want to overreact.  Thoughts?

[shaggy]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro little later landfall vs 0Z and quite a bit stronger

Still has it at 983 off cape fear so. Ot too far from my backyard although I don't expect much wind impact with that track

[CheeselandSkies]

18 minutes ago, NERMAN said:

Hurricane models held landfall intensity at 12Z from strong Cat 3 to low-end Cat 4 tracking toward Big Bend

I would wager 931 MB on the HWRF and 926 MB on the HAFS-B (both FH051) are not "strong Cat 3 to low-end Cat 4" verbatim.

BTW, is there any other way to pronounce the new hurricane model besides "half-ass"? I can't think of one.

[Seminole]

Just now, Retrobuc said:

Ok, need your help.  I'm a lurker whose read this board for awhile.  I have niece who moved from PA to St Pete on Saturday and this is her welcome! She doesnt know if she should leave her apartment, she is on the border of evac zones A&B.  I said she should, but dont want to overreact.  Thoughts?

My understanding is that Zone A in Pinellas is under mandatory evac order. 

[Master of Disaster]

2 minutes ago, Retrobuc said:

Ok, need your help.  I'm a lurker whose read this board for awhile.  I have niece who moved from PA to St Pete on Saturday and this is her welcome! She doesnt know if she should leave her apartment, she is on the border of evac zones A&B.  I said she should, but dont want to overreact.  Thoughts?

What's the complex made of and how far is it from the coast? 

[NERMAN]

4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I would wager 931 MB on the HWRF and 926 MB on the HAFS-B (both FH051) are not "strong Cat 3 to low-end Cat 4" verbatim.

BTW, is there any other way to pronounce the new hurricane model besides "half-ass"? I can't think of one.

HMON and HAFS-A are both in the mid 950's. Splitting the difference with the two you mentioned gets a strong cat 3 to low-end cat 4. 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

May not be much on the immediate coast but some of the hurricane model solutions would put the western eyewall over Tallahassee; with how fast this thing is going to be trucking inland I'd expect they would get a lot more wind than during Michael if those verified.

[CheeselandSkies]

Just now, NERMAN said:

HMON and HAFS-A are both in the mid 950's. Splitting the difference with the two you mentioned gets a strong cat 3 to low-end cat 4. 

Fair enough.

[GaWx]

 So, regarding the 12Z runs vs 0Z runs in summary for FL landfall, 4 of 5 shifted NW/left (though mainly slight other than UKMET's 65 mile shift) while the CMC is the lone model that shifted SE/right a bit.

[Seminole]

8 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

May not be much on the immediate coast but some of the hurricane model solutions would put the western eyewall over Tallahassee; with how fast this thing is going to be trucking inland I'd expect they would get a lot more wind than during Michael if those verified.

An eyewall over Tallahassee would mean power outages for 95% of Tallahassee. The power grid in that town has miles and miles of power lines intertwined with Canopy roads the service large sections of the population. 

 

[Hotair]

A glance at SST in the GoM shows nice 32+° water on the way to LF 

 

 

[Prospero]

15 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

What's the complex made of and how far is it from the coast? 

In Pinellas County distance from the coast is not what counts, it is the Zone Map. I live five blocks from Boca Ciega Bay, but am about 15ft up in elevation. If we get a surge up to our house, much of Pinellas will be under water, maybe even from the Tampa Bay to the Gulf is some areas way inland.

[NERMAN]

14 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

May not be much on the immediate coast but some of the hurricane model solutions would put the western eyewall over Tallahassee; with how fast this thing is going to be trucking inland I'd expect they would get a lot more wind than during Michael if those verified.

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't the GFS show this too? 

[Prospero]

Pinellas County evacuation map below. Notice the areas in white not in evacuation zones; near the Gulf coast is some of the "highest" land on our old sand bar.

https://thegabber.com/update-7-idalia-evacuations-in-pinellas-begin/

[Retrobuc]

12 minutes ago, Prospero said:

In Pinellas County distance from the coast is not what counts, it is the Zone Map. I live five blocks from Boca Ciega Bay, but am about 15ft up in elevation. If we get a surge up to our house, much of Pinellas will be under water, maybe even from the Tampa Bay to the Gulf is some areas way inland.

Zone B, right on the border of A.  She is just of the 275 causeway

[Master of Disaster]

16 minutes ago, Prospero said:

In Pinellas County distance from the coast is not what counts, it is the Zone Map. I live five blocks from Boca Ciega Bay, but am about 15ft up in elevation. If we get a surge up to our house, much of Pinellas will be under water, maybe even from the Tampa Bay to the Gulf is some areas way inland.

I use to say 15 foot is absurd but Ian proved a whole lotta people wrong with storm surge. Be safe. 

[Prospero]

15 minutes ago, Retrobuc said:

Zone B, right on the border of A.  She is just of the 275 causeway

If she has a place to stay higher up near by, she should be ready to go. If she needs to leave the County, sooner the better as traffic starts to back up and that SUCKS.

Finding a hotel is probably already a challenge.

Possible the tide will be sucked out during the day early tomorrow with some offshore winds creating a false sense of security, but once it wraps around it can be like a tsunami coming in.

[Retrobuc]

11 minutes ago, Prospero said:

If she has a place to stay higher up near by, she should be ready to go. If she needs to leave the County, sooner the better as traffic starts to back up and that SUCKS.

Finding a hotel is probably already a challenge.

Possible the tide will be sucked out during the day early tomorrow with some offshore winds creating a false sense of security, but once it wraps around it can be like a tsunami coming in.

Thanks, I think she is going to leave tomorrow morning for our side of the state (Volusia)

[SolidIcewx]

8 minutes ago, Retrobuc said:

Thanks, I think she is going to leave tomorrow morning for our side of the state (Volusia)

The sooner the better

[Boston Bulldog]

Stage is now being set for Idalia to organize significantly once it clears Cuba and enters the gulf

 

[schoeppeya]

4 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Stage is now being set for Idalia to organize significantly once it clears Cuba and enters the gulf

 

Originally posted in the wrong thread but the low over florida has clearly moved into a better position to provide some ventilation to the northeast 

[Radtechwxman]

Last few frames of the satellite loop seem to have a more ne component to the storm motion. Could be a temporary wobble as the center establishes itself but curious if it will hold. This motion could cause more land interaction with Cuba. However, with Ian last year this actually helped to tighten up the core. The terrain isn't too mountainous on the western tip to cause a lot of disruption to the LLC. 

[accountingdawg2012]

Long time reader, first time poster.  How quickly do we think this storm will weaken once it makes landfall? My wife and I are scheduled to travel to the Georgia coast on Thursday but obviously don't want to do that if it looks like the storm will have done major damage to that area after it tracks through on Wednesday afternoon into the evening.  Our hotel has told us we are welcome to wait and see or they will go ahead and cancel and refund us so we are not concerned about that.  Having grown up on the Georgia coast and evacuated for some near misses, I certainly don't want to be heading down on Thursday into a disaster zone as a tourist, but I'm not sure if the wait and see approach is the best idea or if we should go ahead and cancel.