WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 14 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Next 6-8 hrs should see another 15mb drop...it's go time for RI. I’ll take that bet and say another 20mb drop. If I’m wrong a round of shots on me? But this has to be one of the more impressive inner structures and eyewalls we have seen recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 First time I've seen Idalia with intense convection around the entire eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Next 6-8 hrs should see another 15mb drop...it's go time for RI.That doesn't seem unreasonable with this presentation...Things can change quickly for a TC when the mid-to-upper atmospheric environment cooperates. Idalia was still tilted and struggling a little over 24 hours ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 The tide is creeping up on Captiva Island. As the night goes on and Idalia moves away the wind gets stronger on Sanibel and Captiva. https://www.muckyduck.com/beach-cam/?utm_source=SanCapChamber&utm_campaign=SanCapChamber&utm_medium=referral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: That doesn't seem unreasonable with this presentation... Things can change quickly for a TC when the mid-to-upper atmospheric environment cooperates. Idalia was still tilted and struggling a little over 24 hours ago. Can’t recall a cane that was tilted like that, a TS, undergo the struggles it endured earlier today to bomb out like this and be knocking on Cat 4 intensity. I’m sure some of you can remember an analog, and I’ll be interested to know and study it if provided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 As feared and somewhat expected, the NHC is now forecasting that Idalia will be a 130 mph Cat 4 storm at landfall in the Big Bend area, about 20 miles ESE of St. Mark's and 35 miles NW of Steinhatchee (i.e., the middle of freakin' nowhere, with no towns within 10 miles of landfall including inland of there - which is not a bad thing) tomorrow morning around 8 am EDT. Other than the intensity, the only other change was a minor shift of the track about 10 miles further NW than earlier today at 5 pm. Good luck tomorrow to anyone in the path of this storm. Surprised nobody posted the discussion. Here it is...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/292056.shtml? Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Satellite and NWS radar imagery show that Idalia is becoming increasingly more organized. The eye on the Tampa WSR-88D is becoming better defined and the cloud pattern on GOES 16 imagery consists of a growing Central Dense Overcast with a strong convective band over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. Reconnaissance aircraft measurements show that the central pressure is steadily falling and is now around 958 mb. Flight-level and SFMR-observed winds along with Doppler velocity data from the aircraft support an intensity of 95 kt for this advisory. Idalia is now moving faster toward the north or slightly east of north with a motion estimate of 010/16 kt. The hurricane is moving between a mid-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and ridge over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. The system is expected to turn north-northeastward within the next 12 hours, make landfall along the northeastern Gulf coast, and then move northeastward to eastward on the southern side of a mid-level trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast. The 12-hour track forecast point for this advisory has been nudged a bit westward, a little west of the model consensus, but close to the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. It should be noted that some credible models, i.e. the HAFS-A and HAFS-B predictions, are even a little father west. After landfall, Idalia is expected to move near or along the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas in 24-36 hours. Uncertainty in the track forecast beyond 48 hours remains quite large, with some of the global models turning Idalia southward, while some of the regional hurricane models show the storm moving out to sea. Given the uncertainties, the official track forecast shows a slow southeastward motion in 4 to 5 days. Based on the current strengthening trend and the favorable thermodynamic and oceanic conditions, significant strengthening seems likely up to landfall. The new official intensity forecast calls for Idalia to reach category 4 strength at landfall. This is fairly close to the HAFS And HWRF regional hurricane model simulations. After the center moves back over the Atlantic, significant restrengthening is not anticipated at this time due to the expectation of strong vertical west-southwesterly vertical wind shear. Dangerous winds are likely to spread well inland near the path of Idalia due to its relatively fast forward motion. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere between the Wakulla/Jefferson County line and Yankeetown, Florida. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be prepared for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force winds are possible in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina where Hurricane Watches are in effect. 3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally considerable impacts, are expected across the Florida Big Bend, central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina into Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 27.7N 84.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 30.0N 83.9W 115 KT 130 MPH...ON COAST 24H 31/0000Z 32.3N 81.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/1200Z 33.5N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 01/0000Z 33.8N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 33.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 32.9N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 32.0N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 31.0N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 tropical tidbits says the recon is still in progress. It seems like it has been going on since 8PM or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 If you know Clearwater Beach, you'll realize how high the tide is now and the surge is just beginning. I think noon tomorrow is the Blue Moon peak tide. It might be a doozy all long the Gulf Coast. https://clearwaterbeachcams.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Curious about how Valdosta will fare. 65 miles from the coast, which at 15mph is 4-5 hours after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Presentation has become extremely impressive really quick. Reminds me of Ida's presentation. I am thinking 120-125 knots at landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Looks like the goalposts are narrowing with the GFS ticking east again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYweatherguy Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Curious about how Valdosta will fare. 65 miles from the coast, which at 15mph is 4-5 hours after landfall. It's moving at 18mph now and should speed up at that point. It's probably 3 hours from landfall at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard22 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, NYweatherguy said: It's moving at 18mph now and should speed up at that point. It's probably 3 hours from landfall at that point. So lets say it makes landfall at 130 mph and is in Valdosta 3 hours later. Could that mean Valdosta could potentially see 100 mph sustained winds ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Curious about how Valdosta will fare. 65 miles from the coast, which at 15mph is 4-5 hours after landfall. TWC has a crew there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 So lets say it makes landfall at 130 mph and is in Valdosta 3 hours later. Could that mean Valdosta could potentially see 100 mph sustained winds ?Wind interacts differently inland for a TC versus over the water or right at the coast. You get gusting bursts due to friction and turbulence. 100+ mph gusts are definitely possible if that is where the core traverses. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 The very quick intensification of the eyewall over past hour has been remarkable. Some of the towers are pushing 60kft 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 30, 2023 Author Share Posted August 30, 2023 The other thing that’s just crazy to me is that as soon as the eyewall went nuts the coherent band that had been forming disintegrated completely and is now multiple bands all spiraling into the eyewall. That seems like more than just a coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 What a scary looking MOFO. About 10 minutes from getting into the outer core envelop here. Thought about a chase for about 0.009 seconds. I kind of like being among the living. I should get some decent gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Wind interacts differently inland for a TC versus over the water or right at the coast. You get gusting bursts due to friction and turbulence. 100+ mph gusts are definitely possible if that is where the core traverses. Yeah - that was the case with Hugo when it passed over Charlotte. The damage was extensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Some big time towers just went up on the west side of the eye looking at IR. Tops colder than -80° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I wanted to post these before I fall asleep. The recon got over 101 kt at flight level, for three passes as shown on the time series. The last two passes show some asymmetry. One buoy north of the storm says (39 kt) 45mph gusting to (56 kt) 65mph (that's buoy 42036). So you might check this in about 1-2 hours to see if the buoy picks out the highest wind speeds or lowest pressures. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Eyewall is starting to look like a major cane now on radar. I wish the timing of this was 12hrs later so I could sleep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Where is recon? If there were ever a time for it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Last few radar scans indicate lightning now showing in the eyewall. Bidness is pick'n up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Where is recon? If there were ever a time for it.. https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1696729259610406963?s=20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 30, 2023 Author Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Where is recon? If there were ever a time for it.. 2 hours out. It’ll be well timed I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 To add to the previous post above about inland wind potential, I am curious how the core and southern semicircle of the cyclone will evolve as it increases forward motion across N.Florida and SE Georgia. The system will be interacting with the eastern trough. The potential for large swaths of downed old growth along major routes and interstates is there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 We are going to see a storm surge on the Gulf Coast to be remembered for many years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Extreme Ida deju vu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now