Windspeed Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 It's interesting that both 18z HAFS TC models lose the vorticity somewhat over the next 24 hours. It then comes back on both and rapidly reorganizes from 36-48 hours, and shortly afterward, lifts NNE as a hurricane. I don't know if this is simulated proximity to the Rivera Maya coast or some other atmospheric influence occurring. But it is odd at the breakdown, then rapid ramp up on that TC blend in such a short period of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 86.4W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for Pinar del Rio to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Isle of Youth Cuba A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 86.4 West. The depression is drifting toward the southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early Monday. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and a hurricane by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 000 WTNT45 KNHC 270244 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 Images from the Mexico meteorological service's radar in Cancun show that the depression has a small but well-defined circulation with spiral banding extending no more than about 60 n mi from the center. This feature is embedded within a larger circulation with scattered deep convection covering the northwestern Caribbean Sea, extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and adjacent land areas. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective numbers from UW-CIMSS. The depression appears to be drifting toward the southwest with an initial motion of 230/2 kt, with low- to mid-level ridging located to its north and northwest. The system is expected to continue meandering over the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next 24-36 hours. After that time, a developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening ridging over the western Atlantic is expected to begin lifting the system toward the north and north-northeast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward Florida, and then near the southeastern coast of the U.S. The updated NHC track forecast lies on top of or very near the previous prediction and closely follows the TVCX and HCCA consensus aids. Assuming the depression's center does not move over the Yucatan Peninsula, very warm waters and low to moderate vertical shear should support gradual strengthening during the next few days. The NHC intensity prediction is a little below the consensus aids during the first 36 hours of the forecast but then converges with those aids thereafter, showing the system reaching hurricane strength by 60 hours. The system is expected to remain a hurricane, and potentially continue strengthening, up until it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday. Users are reminded to continue monitoring forecasts for any changes to the system's expected intensity as it approaches Florida. Land interaction and increasing shear should lead to fast weakening after the system moves over land, but it could still produce tropical-storm-force winds near and offshore the southeastern coast of the U.S. even if the center is inland. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides, across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme western Cuba where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week. Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to late next week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 21.1N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 20.9N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 20.9N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 21.6N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 23.1N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 25.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 27.5N 84.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 32.7N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/0000Z 35.2N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Something of note, this region doesn't get significant hurricane hits often at all (big bend area of FL). That being said, one of the last direct big hits was Hurricane Hermine which landfalled at 80 MPH as a slightly above averaged size storm. It produced a damaging 6-9 ft surge in that region and was locally quite destructive. It's likely we get >80 MPH at landfall if this were to landfall in the same region. Also may be the same size if not a little bigger than Hermine. That would be a much higher surge than what Hermine did in a very surge suspectable region. Also, this area is the most impoverished part of Florida. As a result, the building codes are some of the weakest in the state. Yes, this is a somewhat sparsely populated area compared to other places in FL, but its a much weaker area in general. So it's a bit of a concerning pick your poison scenario. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Evening thoughts remain unchanged from yesterday. The mean cyclonic center of the storm is sufficiently off the coast that I think steady deepening will occur over tomorrow as it meanders near the Yucatan. I can easily see a strong TS approaching hurricane status before it turns northward. Once it turns north, you have an excellent setup for a major hurricane strike: deep ULL to the west and high to the east, with a poleward jet developing on approach to the coast. While the ingredients are not identical, there are several hurricanes with this type of setup that have deepened upon approach to the gulf coast / FL peninsula. Still like my call of a major into the area just north of Tampa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 A little hard to tell but it looks like circulation will come very close or over Cozumel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 For those of us old enough to remember Isidore 2002, I don't say anything until the southern drift near the Yucatan Peninsula stops. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Going to be a stronger GFS run tonight as it had a more organized system near the Yucatán. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 27, 2023 Author Share Posted August 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, Nibor said: A little hard to tell but it looks like circulation will come very close or over Cozumel. The thing here is that the circulation is small enough and the current convective intensity is low enough that if a large MCS were to fire to the east, either the current center would be pulled east toward it, or a new center could form. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Dang Prospero, we are getting our yearly. Tampa is gonna get a landfalling Hurricane (not actually ever gonna happen) out of the way early in 2023. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 0Z UKMET: ~40 mile E shift at LF into NW FL Big Bend vs E Panhandle on 12Z run; once inland sharper turn to go offshore SC vs 12Z going over Augusta and then staying inland through SC into much of NC TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 85.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 27.08.2023 0 21.0N 85.5W 1004 25 1200UTC 27.08.2023 12 20.3N 85.6W 1002 27 0000UTC 28.08.2023 24 20.6N 85.3W 999 32 1200UTC 28.08.2023 36 21.7N 85.5W 999 35 0000UTC 29.08.2023 48 22.8N 85.5W 1000 38 1200UTC 29.08.2023 60 24.5N 85.6W 1000 41 0000UTC 30.08.2023 72 26.5N 85.3W 998 39 1200UTC 30.08.2023 84 29.2N 84.1W 995 45 0000UTC 31.08.2023 96 31.9N 81.8W 992 42 1200UTC 31.08.2023 108 33.6N 77.7W 991 43 0000UTC 01.09.2023 120 34.4N 73.4W 992 56 1200UTC 01.09.2023 132 34.4N 69.0W 996 52 0000UTC 02.09.2023 144 33.2N 65.7W 1000 45 1200UTC 02.09.2023 156 33.6N 63.2W 999 43 0000UTC 03.09.2023 168 33.5N 60.3W 997 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Pressure down to 1001mb according to the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Pressure down to 1001mb according to the NHC. BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 ...DEPRESSION BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 86.8W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Isle of Youth Cuba A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 86.8 West. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early Monday. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected later on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Tuesday. A Weatherflow station on Cozumel recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a wind gust of 48 mph (78 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches) based on surface observations from Cozumel and Playa del Carmen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 00z Euro into the Big Bend of FL... 987mb SLP around hr 90 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Just offshore near SC/NC border at 120 at 999mb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z Euro into the Big Bend of FL... 987mb SLP around hr 90 A little west of runs yesterday. Recon will be taking off around 6am and we’ll have a bunch of data going into the models so hopefully the end up with a high confidence forecast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: A little west of runs yesterday. Recon will be taking off around 6am and we’ll have a bunch of data going into the models so hopefully the end up with a high confidence forecast. At the very least, I am more interested on the data they collect out ahead of the system across the Gulf. Curious to know if the models are right concerning the non-existence of dry air and the observations yielding decreasing shear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 42 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z Euro into the Big Bend of FL... 987mb SLP around hr 90 This is the strongest Euro yet as others were in low 990s at landfall and is very near the 0Z UKMET landfall point. This would be a big mess for the Big Bend wind-wise and especially storm surge-wise in this very vulnerable high poverty area as was discussed earlier ITT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 So far dmax hasn't helped with new storm development yet. Was sort of thinking it had potential to really get going tonight but so far it's simmered down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 I would keep an eye on the southern convective blow up. It is developing an inflow tail which leads me to believe it might become dominant as it rotates up around the edge of the gyre. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 5 AM advisory says they could be too low, now peaks at 90mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Some of the models were right about the vorticity dropping southward and not doing too much, for now. Cancun radar shows a bit of a misalignment. The convection and mid level rotation appears a bit east of the surface center. The surface center moved ssw for a while, but now appears to be getting pulled back east a bit toward the new convection. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 TD10's overall appearance was better 24 hours ago. It is trying to get its act together southeast of Cozumel this morning. The question is can it maintain the convection today and organize the core or will it fizzle during d-min like yesterday? The first recon plane is headed in from the east, but it is still several hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 There's a nice area of convection popping up over the center as it appears on radar. The center appears to be well to the southeast of Cozumel and I don't see any land interaction happening as models were thinking might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGhostOfJohnBolaris Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 ICON has been incredibly consistent with a hit just north of Tampa these past few runs. Now HAFS-A and B showing a shift SE. Curious to see if that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 There are clearly some negative forces affecting TD10. Convection blew up this morning and tried to align the various levels together, but satellite and Cancun radar suggest an area of sinking air is pressing down from the north, which is eroding the convection and pushing it south of the weak surface circulation. All of the deep moisture is south and well east of the center. The global models must have seen this. Edit: The surface center has performed a bit of a loop overnight and this morning. It passed southward over Cozumel, then continued southward for a while, but then turned east, passing under this morning's convection, and has now moved well out from under the convection and may be moving northeastward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Not sure if the llc is feeling the effects of the deeper convection to the east or what but it’s getting pulled that direction in a hurry on visible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Not really much to say this morning other than for reasons earlier described it looks like the well defined LLC we were all tracking yesterday and overnight is a fragile feature. Not really going to have thoughts on the models and system until recon has had a chance to fully sample the environment and examine the TD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Not sure if the llc is feeling the effects of the deeper convection to the east or what but it’s getting pulled that direction in a hurry on visible Looks like a rather disjointed mess attm. Of note though is that it is solidly in the NW Caribbean. If some sort of core can get together before it starts to lift north that will allow it to enter the southern GOM ready to go. If it is still disjointed upon entering the southern GOM the odds of a major hit IMO go down. If it enters the GOM as an intensifying more or less well developed system I'd be concerned! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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