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Stormlover74
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An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of June.

A frontal system will bring a general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall with locally higher overight into tomorrow. Some areas could experience thunder. The sun will return tomorrow.

Texas could see near record and record heat develop during the middle and latter part of the week. At present, there is no indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The latest ECMWF weeklies continue to show no significant heat until at least late in the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was +10.54 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.102 today.

On June 10 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.363 (RMM). The June 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.249 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.1° (0.7° below normal).

 

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It didn't come down in buckets, but a decent heavy downpour has been going on here. Looks as if this first round is gonna drop about a third of an inch of rain. At least enough to give the garden a decent watering for the first time since May 20th. Looks as if another round will come through in a little while, so hopefully we can end up over a half inch. 

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0.42" here. Overall this event was a little disappointing considering what the potential looked like several days ago, but at least it was just enough to give the decent watering that we desperately needed. I won't have to water the vegetable garden tomorrow and hopefully we'll get more rain on wednesday. 

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