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Central PA Spring 2023


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After doing a rare June perusing of the models and discovering that there is an HRRR cross section smoke forecast, MDT looks to see a rapid deterioration within the next hour or so according to that (or perhaps right now-ish per JNS’s ob), which is supported by the general motion observed on the visible satellite imagery. 

image.thumb.png.3c34b530f6bcea9737f77a85840fd1aa.png

Also want to note in the previous post the station obs plots in the satellite imagery. Another really anomalous part of this setup aside from the severity of the Canadian wildfires themselves is the major North American blocking pattern that is directly discharging Canadian air via due northerly flow.. which is why we’re in the crosshairs of all this smoke in the first place. Dew points are in the low to mid 30s across the commonwealth, occasionally even in the upper 20s at some PA sites this afternoon… something CTP noted last night in their disco as practically unheard of for June around here. 

PWAT map is another example of how dry the airmass is.

image.thumb.png.9d5bc5e6d469930b44335071a6297659.png

 

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12 minutes ago, Voyager said:

My daughter just sent me a pic from Tamaqua. After about 3 blocks, things start to disappear.

We are about down to 5 miles, but it is also getting dark with the higher-level smoke covering the sun.  Definitely no headlights needed though.   I fully expect to go downhill tonight though will be hard to see. 

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47 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Still NOT as bad here as last night. No smell and higher visibility.

I just checked the HRRR and it slowed everything down....comes in later and stays longer into tomorrow.   At 12Z (both the HRRR run and time of day tomorrow) you were starting to get into some yellows while now on the 1Z run you are still pink at 12Z.   Previously you were to be going green around 15Z now still pink and dark red.   If this were a snowstorm we would have been on that within moments of release, but our smoke tracking must not be up to the same level :-).  Little to no ground smoke here right now. 

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12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I just checked the HRRR and it slowed everything down....comes in later and stays longer into tomorrow.   At 12Z (both the HRRR run and time of day tomorrow) you were starting to get into some yellows while now on the 1Z run you are still pink at 12Z.   Previously you were to be going green around 15Z now still pink and dark red.   If this were a snowstorm we would have been on that within moments of release, but our smoke tracking must not be up to the same level :-).  Little to no ground smoke here right now. 

El Nino smokestorm - blocking is turning this into a coastal crawler. 

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2 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

The smoke is as bad as it has been through out the whole event at the moment 11:49PM. The timing is exactly the same as last night, so far.  It defiantly seams to be worse at night. Maybe the air cools aloft, and the smoke falls . I know nothing about wiled fire smoke dynamics. Can anyone here enlighten ?  

It's even worse at 2 am. I went out and visibility dropped dramatically as if there was a thick fog. I took a few breaths of air as I walked outside looking down the street and my lungs felt like they were burning slightly. Also I think why it's worse now is because the smoke has been progressively moving farther south as time moves on so I think it's just coincidence that it got bad as night came.

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Air quality hit over 207 here now and it keeps getting worse.

So my dad got mulch for his yard and I'm assuming that he's going to be shoveling a huge amount of it later today and I'm wondering if that's not a good idea for him to do given how conditions are right now. I did tell him the other day about the air quality but I don't think neither of us thought it'd get this bad. Do any of you think it's a good idea for him to do that? He's pretty healthy and in great shape but he's in his mid 60's so I'm just a bit worried about him being out there shoveling that for hours. Knowing him he'll probably just do it regardless lol

 

I walked out to see how bad it got and almost instantly I started coughing. It felt like I took a huge plume of smoke directly into my lungs. It's fucking awful out

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57 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Air quality hit over 207 here now and it keeps getting worse.

So my dad got mulch for his yard and I'm assuming that he's going to be shoveling a huge amount of it later today and I'm wondering if that's not a good idea for him to do given how conditions are right now. I did tell him the other day about the air quality but I don't think neither of us thought it'd get this bad. Do any of you think it's a good idea for him to do that? He's pretty healthy and in great shape but he's in his mid 60's so I'm just a bit worried about him being out there shoveling that for hours. Knowing him he'll probably just do it regardless lol

 

I walked out to see how bad it got and almost instantly I started coughing. It felt like I took a huge plume of smoke directly into my lungs. It's fucking awful out

The mulch will wait for him. I wouldn't do it today and probably not tomorrow either. I would say this to anyone: Just avoid activity and the air outside right now if you can. 

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38 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Please promise some heat and humidity...for more the just a day or two. Hoping the rain next week is coming.

Well it was in the mid 90's over your way but the humidly part has been stubborn to come along.  LOL.    Counting on next week worries me, I hope Friday pans out.  Tropical storm moisture in the GFS (still south of us) the following week.   There is snow in Canada on the 0Z CMC 228 panel.  That is not normal. 

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Good morning all, low of 47 here.  Man, is the smoke thick out there right now.  It looks like it should ease up a bit throughout the midday before building back in this evening, and then slowly thinning out tomorrow and through the weekend.  But who really knows, as this stuff seems tough to predict as far as exact location and timing.  Outside chance of some rain showers later today but the better chance for our area is late in the day tomorrow.  Confidence building for a more soaking rainfall Monday into Tuesday and then hopefully some more opportunities in the extended period.  Let's get this smoke the hell out of here!

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30 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

A question how did all these fires start in Canada? Even some metrologists are questioning this 

NPR (either last night or this morning its all blurring together) said alot of the fires outside Quebec were caused by lightning. There was a deviation from norm snowfall map posted on Twitter I'll try and dig up that showed all the areas with major fire issues were way below normal snow fall levels. Coincidenceeeeeeeeeeeeee? I think not

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