Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 that's what I was thinking and HPC is worried about feedback Would you get that in the ensembles too? I thought the ensembles would smooth out those kinds of problems some, but they show the same or more qpf than the operational the MM5 is way west the Rgem is waaaaaay west the GGEM is even more west and HPC thinks its a feedback on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 its a short term model that has a high resolution the fact that it and the GFS show a big hit tells me the NAM is on crack, not the GFS Good enough for me. Thanks for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I've never heard of the mm5 model...should that be a sign to disregard? Nice to see it support gfs though! \ very good in SHORT term ---- 36 hrs and under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the MM5 is way west the Rgem is waaaaaay west the GGEM is even more west and HPC thinks its a feedback on the GFS? YES!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I've never heard of the mm5 model...should that be a sign to disregard? Nice to see it support gfs though! It's basically the predecessor to the WRF ARW model ... a non-hydrostatic community model generally run at high-ish resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 its a short term model that has a high resolution the fact that it and the GFS show a big hit tells me the NAM is on crack, not the GFS Like the other guy said, the MM5 is usually progressive. It actually comes out of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the MM5 is way west the Rgem is waaaaaay west the GGEM is even more west and HPC thinks its a feedback on the GFS? It's going to take the Euro to seal the deal.. I think...(At least in some minds..) NWS has to be going crazy at their offices in the area's this could affect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well I went on with my 1-3", didn't want to change it from what I had earlier so going to have to go in tomorrow and change it significantly. At least I explained the uncertainty in the situation. This is certainly a very challenging one....my blood pressure has gone through the roof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's going to take the Euro to seal the deal.. I think...(At least in some minds..) NWS has to be going crazy at their offices in the area's this could affect. The funny thing is so many people were dismissing the euro when it had this solution before. What if we have complete role reversal and the euro becomes the only model not to show this solution? We should apply the same logic and discount it just like it was being discounted when it stood alone with its east coast bomb idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the MM5 is way west the Rgem is waaaaaay west the GGEM is even more west and HPC thinks its a feedback on the GFS? I think it has been pretty clear throughout this process that HPC has been hugging the EURO so since the EURO was really not on board as much at 12z, I imagine this is HPC's excuse for trusting in the EURO the whole time and still trusting it now. I only can hope and pray at this point that the EURO follows the trend this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 DT -- thoughts so far on the changes in the last few model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 then you dont know that much \ very good in SHORT term ---- 36 hrs and under And the 12K resolution does a very good job with LES...Nailed the placement of our Feb 2007 10 footer!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 wow that is so bad thinking on their part HPC SAYS .... CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST... LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUES WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. THEIR SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. WHEN THE GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK...THIS LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN ITS FORECAST. SINCE TRENDS ARE APART AND THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE STRONG/WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS UNUSUAL...WILL MINIMIZE CHANGES TO CONTINUITY AND SPLIT THE GUIDANCE DOWN THE MIDDLE...PREFERRING A 00Z NAM/12Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think it has been pretty clear throughout this process that HPC has been hugging the EURO so since the EURO was really not on board as much at 12z, I imagine this is HPC's excuse for trusting in the EURO the whole time and still trusting it now. I only can hope and pray at this point that the EURO follows the trend this evening. To be honest, the atmosphere doesnt care what HPC thinks or the Euro model does-- Nature will do whatever it wants regardless lol. So, while interesting to see what the Euro "solution" is at this point, you shouldnt hang your hat on it. Just wait and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What time does Euro usually come out? In about 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Vertically stacked off the Jersey Shore? Damn, .5 inch in 3 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 wow that is so bad thinking on their part and I wonder if the Euro jumps on Board they will just disregard the possible feedback issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 30 minutes usually initializes around 12:45 I thought best part, we won't have to wait around forever since its all gonna happen in the first 60-72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The funny thing is so many people were dismissing the euro when it had this solution before. What if we have complete role reversal and the euro becomes the only model not to show this solution? We should apply the same logic and discount it just like it was being discounted when it stood alone with its east coast bomb idea. There IS other model support (especially ensemble)...and this is a MUCH shorter lead time. apples/oranges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 for some of you new folks think before you post Members, Due to the high activity with the pending event, AmericanWx is entering in what is called Storm mode. Additional temporary moderators are added and the normal warn and suspend protocols are removed. Moderators will now have the power to automatically remove your posts and or suspend you without warning. Moderators will create ONE thread that you may mix banter and weather in. KEEP ALL BANTER in this thread ONLY. Please see below the new policies/rules that are put into affect under Storm Mode: 1. Cross thread trolling will not be permitted on the weather side. If you are in a region other than your own with the sole purpose of starting trouble, you will be suspended without question. 2. Model threads will be cleared of unrelated discussion, empty "smiley posts", personal attacks, and analysis without any basis. Even the most basic and rudimentary analysis would be appreciated. 3. In model threads, repetitive questions such as “how much for…..” etc will be deleted. 4. Please respect the professionals that post here. They will make forecasts as they are comfortable but continued pestering or badgering of them with "How much for...?" will result in the quickest exit from this board. We will not be tolerant of abusive or trolling behavior. 5. If you post a forecast, please have some sound reasoning behind it. IMBY forecasts also known as wishcasts will likely end up in OT or deleted. 6. DO NOT link threads that have nothing to do with weather or weather forecasting from any other board. Do not link threads from other boards that contain cross feuding or dealing with personal issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I expect the Gfs to be right. It's not 72-78 hours anymore. It's 6-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hurricane cut a new video at midnight. http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Big_Changes_in_Snow_Predictions_Going_Into_Potential_Storm_Philadelphia-112445454.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the MM5 is way west the Rgem is waaaaaay west the GGEM is even more west and HPC thinks its a feedback on the GFS? Its a holiday. The most experienced mets are home with their families. Same reason tonight is not a good night for a heart attack. You end up being treated by the first year resident. He does the best he can but........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Did you see the SREF? It's going bonkers. this is really what the SREF was used for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Here is a close up view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I would be stunned if the Euro did not jump on board. At this point, my main concerns are A) dry slot LI and precip type issues for the coast! It's clear that in such a complicated setup, something was inaccurately sampled and hence, tonight's outcome. In all reality, the writing was on the wall all day long...I noticed some changes in the SREF's earlier this morning that made me a bit nervous; the trend continued with the 1500 and 2100 SREF, and sure enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I expect the Gfs to be right. It's not 72-78 hours anymore. It's 6-30 What if the NAM was showing it and not the GFS? Would you trust the NAM and not the GFS? Just asking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The entire diagnostic... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1127 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010 VALID DEC 25/0000 UTC THRU DEC 28/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES... NAM INITIALIZATION ISSUES WHICH COULD BE RELEVANT LIE BELOW. LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...PREFERENCE FOR A 12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS COMPROMISE THE ECMWF LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD SHOWN OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEMS PROGRESSION. WITHIN THE QUICK/NEARLY ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD WITH A LOW APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BOTH WITHIN THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SPREAD. SINCE THE FLOW IS ZONAL...WILL FAVOR THE GUIDANCE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF THE SPREAD...WHICH WOULD BE A 12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF/18Z GFS COMPROMISE. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...PREFERENCE FOR A NON-12Z CANADIAN COMPROMISE THE NAM/GFS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THEIR PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF IS ON THE QUICK/NEGATIVELY TILTED SIDE OF ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NON-12Z CANADIAN GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. WILL FAVOR A NON-12Z CANADIAN COMPROMISE HERE. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY...PREFERENCE FOR A NON-12Z CANADIAN COMPROMISE THE ECMWF IS ON THE SLOW/SOUTHWEST SIDE OF ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SHARPER/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE 12Z CANADIAN IS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF WAS THE MOST AMPLIFIED/SLOWEST. THE NON-12Z CANADIAN GUIDANCE IS ALL REASONABLE CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS...SO WILL PREFER A NON-12Z CANADIAN COMPROMISE HERE. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST...PREFERENCE FOR A NON-12Z CANADIAN COMPROMISE THE NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THE 12Z CANADIAN IS A NORTHERN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT DOES NOT SEPARATE IT FROM THE FLOW NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND IT FORMS AN UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OR OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THE 18Z GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION...SO WILL FAVOR A NON-12Z CANADIAN COMPROMISE WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONSOLIDATING UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST... LOW PRESSURE FORMING UP THE EAST COAST...PREFERENCE FOR A 00Z NAM/15Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE THERE ARE SMALL SCALE DETAILS THE NAM/GFS/ECWMF ARE SHOWING ISSUES WITH WHICH MAY IMPACT ITS FORECAST LATER ON. THEIR SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN TEXAS ARE 30-40 METERS TOO WEAK AT THE 500 HPA LEVEL BASED ON RAOB REPORTS FROM TEXAS. THE NAM DOES NOT CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN EASTERN TEXAS. THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS RUNS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH COULD BE MAKING ITS SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TOO STRONG. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE RIDGE INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE NAM...WHICH WOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR 00Z. ANY OF THESE DETAILS COULD DEGRADE/NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAS SIGNIFICANT INCREASED SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH THE 18Z AND 00Z GFS/18Z GEFS MEAN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OVERALL SPREAD AND THE 12Z CANADIAN AND A SIGNIFICANT PERCENTAGE OF ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE EAST/QUICK SIDE DUE TO GREATER INTERACTION WITH A VORTEX IN EASTERN CANADA. THE NAM HAS TRENDED STRONGER ALOFT AND MORE WESTWARD AT THE SURFACE OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED APART...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A EAST TO SOUTHEAST TREND FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE GFS TRENDING WEST. IN BOTH CASES...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LONG TERM WAVERING...WITH THE GFS RETURNING TOWARDS /IF NOT WEST OF/ ITS SOLUTIONS FROM MONDAY THOUGH THE ECMWF IS MORE EAST THAN SEEN ON ITS PRIOR FIVE DAYS OF RUNS. THE SREF MEMBERS HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND SHIFTED THE LOW MORE WESTERLY WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER AND MORE OFFSHORE. WHEN THE GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK...THIS LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE IN ITS FORECAST. SINCE TRENDS ARE APART AND THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE STRONG/WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS UNUSUAL...WILL MINIMIZE CHANGES TO CONTINUITY AND SPLIT THE GUIDANCE DOWN THE MIDDLE...PREFERRING A 00Z NAM/12Z SREF MEAN COMPROMISE. ...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... ...500MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Here is a close up view wow parts of jersey and long island may may have dry slotting issues and/or mixing issues possibly?? i know way too early to determine that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What if the NAM was showing it and not the GFS? Would you trust the NAM and not the GFS? Just asking Good question. I would trust the Gfs more because the nam has a known n and w bias while Gfs is usually always S and E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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