Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[rclab]

27 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

metfan is rather sanguine, perhaps he is the hero of the story after all

I’m not so sure Will. It’s hard to picture Anthony armed yet out of uniform. Stay well, as always….

[Volcanic Winter]

Ugh. I think I have COVID again, luckily haven’t had it in like 18 months. But I’m fairly sure I have it right now, deep chesty cough with a lot of pain. Feel like el crapola. 

Time for some movies and video games .

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Ugh. I think I have COVID again, luckily haven’t had it in like 18 months. But I’m fairly sure I have it right now, deep chesty cough with a lot of pain. Feel like el crapola. 

Time for some movies and video games .

I hope you feel better soon.

[North and West]

.

[forkyfork]

  

13 hours ago, dseagull said:

Given the fact that we may not see another snow event in awhile, I decided to take advantage of the remaining snow cover in Pemberton, NJ today.   I had a phenomenal day hunting Partridge and Pheasant with my four-legged hunting buddy and best pal.  Lots of great memories made in a wintry setting and some of my favorite table fare outside of seafood.   It's an amazing thing being able to enjoy a snowfall for several days after an event.

 

Also, does anybody know why my notifications are constantly filled with "reactions," that are of a hot dog?   I assume this is the weenie thing?   Someone either doesn't like me much or is hitting on me?  Strange stuff.  

 

sometimes i'll see pheasant or partridge when birding before a hawk wipes them out because they're farm raised and have no survival instinct and hang out in the open

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

  

sometimes i'll see pheasant or partridge when birding before a hawk wipes them out because they're farm raised and have no survival instinct and hang out in the open

we used to have wild ones but they disappeared years ago haven't seen one out there since 1994 or 1995.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

  

sometimes i'll see pheasant or partridge when birding before a hawk wipes them out because they're farm raised and have no survival instinct and hang out in the open

Interesting that they are considered one of the main reasons the wild population of pheasants has gone down:

https://www.pheasantsforever.org/getdoc/bef628f7-35d2-4b82-bac4-2d68d7bffc75/Pennsylvania.aspx

PENNSYLVANIA—MOST WILD BIRDS OFF LIMITS FOR NOW

Forecast: Pennsylvania’s few wild pheasants live mostly in the state’s four active Wild Pheasant Recovery Areas, where hunting is closed—at least for now. There’s a small chance of finding wild pheasants in agricultural areas elsewhere. But most pheasant hunting this year will be for stocked, pen-raised birds, says Ian Gregg, game management division chief for the Pennsylvania Game Commission.
 
It wasn’t always so. Breeding Bird Survey data from routes run in primary pheasant range counties in southeastern Pennsylvania show that pheasant numbers increased an average 3 percent per year from 1966 to 1974. The population held steady through 1980. But then it plunged. The roadside index fell from 32 birds per route in 1966 to less than a single bird in 2005.
 
According to the Northeast Upland Game Bird Technical Committee report for 2015, “Loss of farmland habitat and intensification of agricultural practices on remaining cropland acres are the primary causes for these declines. In addition, the release of large numbers of game farm pheasants is thought to have greatly reduced the gene pool and survivorship of pheasants in the wild.” 
 
The Pennsylvania Ring-necked Pheasant Management Plan 2008–2017, completed in 2009, laid out a two-pronged approach to pheasant recovery. First is restoring wild birds in designated recovery areas. Second is providing put-and-take hunting.

 

https://www.pennlive.com/life/2022/10/why-am-i-seeing-pheasants-in-pennsylvania-again.html

 

A big part of the decline of pheasants in Pennsylvania has been loss of farmland, which dropped from nearly 8.2 million acres in 1974 to about 7.6 million acres in 2017.

 

 

In addition, according to the commission, “economic trends in agriculture intensified farming practices, herbicides, pesticides, chemical fertilizers increased substantially in use. Increased row crop acreage, urban developments, and the elimination of fencerows on agricultural lands also are thought to have accelerated the decline in pheasant populations.”

 

 

And two hard winters in 1977 and 1978 further depressed pheasant populations. The commission attempted to offset declining populations by mass producing and releasing more pheasants, but it soon became apparent that that only resulted in a bird of reduced quality, with a loss of hardiness and increased tameness.

 

 

• Early snowfall disrupts pheasant stocking by Pa. Game Commission

 

 

Partly in response to declining pheasant numbers and places to hunt pheasants, but also as part of overall declines in participation in hunting, the number of hunters has fallen from a peak high of more than 700,000 in 1971 to about 65,000 to 75,000 in the past few years.

[etudiant]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting that they are considered one of the main reasons the wild population of pheasants has gone down:

https://www.pheasantsforever.org/getdoc/bef628f7-35d2-4b82-bac4-2d68d7bffc75/Pennsylvania.aspx

PENNSYLVANIA—MOST WILD BIRDS OFF LIMITS FOR NOW

Forecast: Pennsylvania’s few wild pheasants live mostly in the state’s four active Wild Pheasant Recovery Areas, where hunting is closed—at least for now. There’s a small chance of finding wild pheasants in agricultural areas elsewhere. But most pheasant hunting this year will be for stocked, pen-raised birds, says Ian Gregg, game management division chief for the Pennsylvania Game Commission.
 
It wasn’t always so. Breeding Bird Survey data from routes run in primary pheasant range counties in southeastern Pennsylvania show that pheasant numbers increased an average 3 percent per year from 1966 to 1974. The population held steady through 1980. But then it plunged. The roadside index fell from 32 birds per route in 1966 to less than a single bird in 2005.
 
According to the Northeast Upland Game Bird Technical Committee report for 2015, “Loss of farmland habitat and intensification of agricultural practices on remaining cropland acres are the primary causes for these declines. In addition, the release of large numbers of game farm pheasants is thought to have greatly reduced the gene pool and survivorship of pheasants in the wild.” 
 
The Pennsylvania Ring-necked Pheasant Management Plan 2008–2017, completed in 2009, laid out a two-pronged approach to pheasant recovery. First is restoring wild birds in designated recovery areas. Second is providing put-and-take hunting.

 

https://www.pennlive.com/life/2022/10/why-am-i-seeing-pheasants-in-pennsylvania-again.html

 

A big part of the decline of pheasants in Pennsylvania has been loss of farmland, which dropped from nearly 8.2 million acres in 1974 to about 7.6 million acres in 2017.

 

 

In addition, according to the commission, “economic trends in agriculture intensified farming practices, herbicides, pesticides, chemical fertilizers increased substantially in use. Increased row crop acreage, urban developments, and the elimination of fencerows on agricultural lands also are thought to have accelerated the decline in pheasant populations.”

 

 

And two hard winters in 1977 and 1978 further depressed pheasant populations. The commission attempted to offset declining populations by mass producing and releasing more pheasants, but it soon became apparent that that only resulted in a bird of reduced quality, with a loss of hardiness and increased tameness.

 

 

• Early snowfall disrupts pheasant stocking by Pa. Game Commission

 

 

Partly in response to declining pheasant numbers and places to hunt pheasants, but also as part of overall declines in participation in hunting, the number of hunters has fallen from a peak high of more than 700,000 in 1971 to about 65,000 to 75,000 in the past few years.

These numbers are from 40+ years ago. Is there nothing more current??

Pheasants have very high reproductive capacity, as do wild turkeys. I know the latter are doing very well, so surprised that pheasants are in trouble.

 

[EastCoastKU]

Ugh. I think I have COVID again, luckily haven’t had it in like 18 months. But I’m fairly sure I have it right now, deep chesty cough with a lot of pain. Feel like el crapola. 
Time for some movies and video games .

I just got it the second time in 3 months… and I’m the sickest I’ve ever been with it. This is like super Covid (unfortunately I’m on round 4). Feel better soon.


.

[Volcanic Winter]

7 hours ago, EastCoastKU said:

I just got it the second time in 3 months… and I’m the sickest I’ve ever been with it. This is like super Covid (unfortunately I’m on round 4). Feel better soon.


.

Thank you, and thank you @donsutherland1. I really hope you recover swiftly as well, I know how miserable it can be! The last time I had it, I had a 101-103 fever for about 8-9 days. Awful.

Yeah, I’ve actually been up all night this evening due to the extreme discomfort of the congestion I have right now. My nose is like a blockade that won’t let a single molecule of air through, and that always triggers a sort of anxiety in me that makes sleep difficult to impossible.

On the bright side my cough has been improving and along with it, the chest pain. Just gotta ride it out. COVID is extremely unpleasant, as is the flu or any other similar hard hitting virus. 

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, EastCoastKU said:

I just got it the second time in 3 months… and I’m the sickest I’ve ever been with it. This is like super Covid (unfortunately I’m on round 4). Feel better soon.


.

I hope you will be getting better shortly and recover quickly.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, etudiant said:

These numbers are from 40+ years ago. Is there nothing more current??

Pheasants have very high reproductive capacity, as do wild turkeys. I know the latter are doing very well, so surprised that pheasants are in trouble.

 

The Pennsylvania Ring-necked Pheasant Management Plan 2008–2017, completed in 2009, laid out a two-pronged approach to pheasant recovery. First is restoring wild birds in designated recovery areas. Second is providing put-and-take hunting.

The numbers are based on the roadside bird count in 2005, which was less than 20 years ago.  Hence the management plan.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Thank you, and thank you @donsutherland1. I really hope you recover swiftly as well, I know how miserable it can be! The last time I had it, I had a 101-103 fever for about 8-9 days. Awful.

Yeah, I’ve actually been up all night this evening due to the extreme discomfort of the congestion I have right now. My nose is like a blockade that won’t let a single molecule of air through, and that always triggers a sort of anxiety in me that makes sleep difficult to impossible.

On the bright side my cough has been improving and along with it, the chest pain. Just gotta ride it out. COVID is extremely unpleasant, as is the flu or any other similar hard hitting virus. 

How do you know it's covid? I never got tested for whatever I had in October, but I was sick for 3 weeks with a 103 fever and a persistent dry cough as well as dizziness and just could not get out of bed at all.  The dry cough persisted for another few weeks after I had recovered.

I took a bunch of medications to get rid of it

 

1) antibiotic (amoxicillin, so not a very strong one)

2) sudafed for the congestion

3) benzotate for the dry cough

4) imodium (because it was accompanied by an upset stomach at the start)

5) mucinex for the congestion also

6) benadryl (to sleep better at night)

7) advil for the fever

8) doximycin (second antibiotic I held in reserve in case I needed it, but never took it)

9) theraflu for the flu symptoms

10) robitussin for the persistent cough

11) cepacol cough drops

 

 

my fever would rise really high in the evenings and I would be shaking and take all these pills again (I took them mornings and evenings, so twice a day).

 

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How do you know it's covid? I never got tested for whatever I had in October, but I was sick for 3 weeks with a 103 fever and a persistent dry cough as well as dizziness and just could not get out of bed at all.  The dry cough persisted for another few weeks after I had recovered.

I took a bunch of medications to get rid of it

 

1) antibiotic (amoxicillin, so not a very strong one)

2) sudafed for the congestion

3) benzotate for the dry cough

4) imodium (because it was accompanied by an upset stomach at the start)

5) mucinex for the congestion also

6) benadryl (to sleep better at night)

7) advil for the fever

8) doximycin (second antibiotic I held in reserve in case I needed it, but never took it)

9) theraflu for the flu symptoms

10) robitussin for the persistent cough

11) cepacol cough drops

 

 

my fever would rise really high in the evenings and I would be shaking and take all these pills again (I took them mornings and evenings, so twice a day).

 

 

 

Stockpile of rapid antigen tests. Both my wife and I work with the public and are constantly around lots of people, so over the course of the pandemic we frequently tested one another. They work pretty well, I’ve seen some likely false negatives but they usually correct with further testing. Just good to know what you have, when possible. 

[SRRTA22]

Id hate to be the guy who gets ticketed by metsfan during our ongoing snow drought 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Horrible idea for so many reasons. 

But it will happen and it might even need to happen if we're pushed to an existential threat.

[Volcanic Winter]

9 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

Id hate to be the guy who gets ticketed by metsfan during our ongoing snow drought 

“Did you know you were going 36 in a 35 and that I punched six holes through my bathroom wall this morning to commemorate NYC’s epic snow drought???!” 
 

“Go ahead and tell me what you were doing on the night of NYC’s last 6 inch+ snow event?”

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

But it will happen and it might even need to happen if we're pushed to an existential threat.

It will not happen on a large scale in our lifetime. There are still way too many unknowns and that could also lead to our demise. As an environmental scientist there is still so much we don’t know and I’d honestly say right now are biggest issues are forever chemicals and plastics all causing hormone disruption and fertility issues. Not to derail the thread though. We can talk about climate manipulation elsewhere if you want. 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

It will not happen on a large scale in our lifetime. There are still way too many unknowns and that could also lead to our demise. As an environmental scientist there is still so much we don’t know and I’d honestly say right now are biggest issues are forever chemicals and plastics all causing hormone disruption and fertility issues. Not to derail the thread though. We can talk about climate manipulation elsewhere if you want. 

are you familiar with the experiments done in the New Mexico desert with SO2 and the supercomputer simulations that show a 1C - 2C drop in temperature (but also a change in rainfall patterns.)  The scientific community is divided on it, but the push to end fossil fuels really began a few decades too late and too slow to stave off the worst solutions without some human interference in the other direction.  From what I've read, it's not an extremely expensive solution either and even nations like Indonesia will be participating (especially since island based nations have the most to lose with sea level rise.)

 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

It will not happen on a large scale in our lifetime. There are still way too many unknowns and that could also lead to our demise. As an environmental scientist there is still so much we don’t know and I’d honestly say right now are biggest issues are forever chemicals and plastics all causing hormone disruption and fertility issues. Not to derail the thread though. We can talk about climate manipulation elsewhere if you want. 

I totally agree about chemical toxicity in the environment and pesticides overshadow even the ones you mention, especially since we have an EPA that is captured by the chemical lobby and we need class action lawsuits like the one the Michael J Fox foundation filed to get pesticides banned here that are already banned in the rest of the world. It's positively criminal that something as poisonous as this isn't banned here yet, especially with these pesticides found to cause brain damage, and circulating in our blood.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

It will not happen on a large scale in our lifetime. There are still way too many unknowns and that could also lead to our demise. As an environmental scientist there is still so much we don’t know and I’d honestly say right now are biggest issues are forever chemicals and plastics all causing hormone disruption and fertility issues. Not to derail the thread though. We can talk about climate manipulation elsewhere if you want. 

the pesticide issue is particularly sensitive to me since we have recently found yet another carcinogenic pesticide in the Long Island water supply. It's 1,4-Dioxane and Long Island has the highest amount in the country, there is a new federally funded study being conducted by Yale to find its source, most likely it comes from all this excessive rainfall draining toxic pesticides from farms =\ into the underground aquifers from where our water comes from.

[Dark Star]

The only thing worse than a 43 degree rain is a 31 degree, plain rain.  (I've seen enough of plain rain, not freezing, below 32 degrees).

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

are you familiar with the experiments done in the New Mexico desert with SO2 and the supercomputer simulations that show a 1C - 2C drop in temperature (but also a change in rainfall patterns.)  The scientific community is divided on it, but the push to end fossil fuels really began a few decades too late and too slow to stave off the worst solutions without some human interference in the other direction.  From what I've read, it's not an extremely expensive solution either and even nations like Indonesia will be participating (especially since island based nations have the most to lose with sea level rise.)

 

Yes, I have seen that but there are huge drawbacks to injecting more S02 into any system. Mainly we are the water planet and S02 will form sulfuric acid leading to acid rain, so that is not a plan we can do on the large scale. The best would be to continue to decarbonize and figure out a way again to make the carbon solid and bury it. We have yet to fully figure out a way to do so. But we do have more than enough studies showing biofuels are feasible (but then converting more land to agriculture could prove problematic). That's not even talking about the biodiversity crisis, etc.  The pesticides you mention are a problem and the herbicides like glyphosate too. 

[rclab]

14 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

Id hate to be the guy who gets ticketed by metsfan during our ongoing snow drought 

 

4 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

“Did you know you were going 36 in a 35 and that I punched six holes through my bathroom wall this morning to commemorate NYC’s epic snow drought???!” 
 

“Go ahead and tell me what you were doing on the night of NYC’s last 6 inch+ snow event?”

Good afternoon SORTA22, V W. I believe if I was driving this, Anthony might, instead of a ticket, ask for a ride. As for what I was doing on the night of the last 6+ snow event. …… I was wishing I could match it. Stay well, as always ….

 

[IrishRob17]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

The gfs pattern is just insane 

 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I'm already losing sleep 

Seems like more than just the gfs pattern is...

[North and West]

.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Yes, I have seen that but there are huge drawbacks to injecting more S02 into any system. Mainly we are the water planet and S02 will form sulfuric acid leading to acid rain, so that is not a plan we can do on the large scale. The best would be to continue to decarbonize and figure out a way again to make the carbon solid and bury it. We have yet to fully figure out a way to do so. But we do have more than enough studies showing biofuels are feasible (but then converting more land to agriculture could prove problematic). That's not even talking about the biodiversity crisis, etc.  The pesticides you mention are a problem and the herbicides like glyphosate too. 

Yes, it looks like we are getting screwed from multiple directions.

I'd like the laser powered herbicides to be used more, since that is a great nonchemical solution that has no side effects.

[Volcanic Winter]

Human activity is mimicking the powerful natural atmospheric changes brought on by the largest flood basalt eruptions. Look up the Siberian Traps which ushered in the Permian Mass Extinction and came very close to sterilizing the planet. This occurred due to absolutely monstrous CO2 gas release sustained over many thousands of years, as these eruptions are beyond any human comprehension. They dwarf VEI 8 explosive eruptions like Yellowstone (last was 1,000-1,500 cubic kilometers of volume). Flood basalt eruptions are 100,000+ cubic kilometers, sustaining at an enormously high yearly rate of effusion. They’re major players of global climate change and are often responsible for some of the warmest excursions our planet has seen.  The earth has “tools” to recover from these excursions, but they too take many, many millennia in order to scrub CO2 and bring global temps back down. I can only say continuing mass deforestation is catastrophically short sighted on our part, and couldn’t be more antithetical to what we should be doing right now. I understand all the ways modern society depends on lumber, but we need to figure it out - fast. 

The earth hasn’t seen a flood basalt event since the Columbia River Basalts about 16mya, and as you can probably tell they’re extremely rare from a human perspective. They’re believed to often be the birth of a new hotspot as an enormous mantle plume pushes toward the surface and forces out spectacular amounts of freshly melted magma as the plume pushes into the crust. And with all that melted rock comes all that exsolved gas, CO2 chief among them. And yes, the hotspot that caused the CRB in the PNW is very likely the hotspot powering Yellowstone presently, albeit in a reduced capacity.

Human activity is mimicking a flood basalt event, except at an even more rapid rate. They take thousands of years generally to have the kind of impact we’ve seen in a hundred. Short of catastrophic instantaneous events like asteroid impacts, we have to be the fastest instance of major climate change in the geologic record. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Human activity is mimicking the powerful natural atmospheric changes brought on by the largest flood basalt eruptions. Look up the Siberian Traps which ushered in the Permian Mass Extinction and came very close to sterilizing the planet. This occurred due to absolutely monstrous CO2 gas release sustained over many thousands of years, as these eruptions are beyond any human comprehension. They dwarf VEI 8 explosive eruptions like Yellowstone (last was 1,000-1,500 cubic kilometers of volume). Flood basalt eruptions are 100,000+ cubic kilometers, sustaining at an enormously high yearly rate of effusion. They’re major players of global climate change and are often responsible for some of the warmest excursions our planet has seen.  The earth has “tools” to recover from these excursions, but they too take many, many millennia in order to scrub CO2 and bring global temps back down 

The earth hasn’t seen a flood basalt event since the Columbia River Basalts about 16mya, and as you can probably tell they’re extremely rare from a human perspective. They’re believed to often be the birth of a new hotspot as an enormous mantle plume pushes toward the surface and forces out spectacular amounts of freshly melted magma as the plume pushes into the crust. And with all that melted rock comes all that exsolved gas, CO2 chief among them. 

Human activity is mimicking a flood basalt event, except at an even more rapid rate. They take thousands of years generally to have the kind of impact we’ve seen in a hundred. Short of catastrophic instantaneous events like asteroid impacts, we have to be the fastest instance of major climate change in the geologic record. 

Do you think humanity will eventually develop the power to stop volcanic eruptions and earthquakes of this magnitude and scale? Something I have wondered about.

I know we have already been testing methods of stopping extinction level asteroids.

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Do you think humanity will eventually develop the power to stop volcanic eruptions and earthquakes of this magnitude and scale? Something I have wondered about.

I know we have already been testing methods of stopping extinction level asteroids.

Asteroids, yes. Comparatively little involved when you’re talking about crashing an expendable craft into an asteroid to slightly bump it off course. The whole reason it works is because even large asteroids need merely a slight adjustment to their course to no longer threaten an impact, the precision of orbital trajectories is so high for something to actually hit the earth comparatively little is required to make them miss.

But earthquakes and volcanism? Eh, not for a very, very long time IMHO. The sheer scale and forces involved suggests a task that’s well beyond our capabilities, and I’m not really sure what would move the needle there enough to ever really be a plausible thing we’re capable of. The earth is powerful, man.
 

Consider something like Yellowstone. It has a massive, stale rhyolitic magma chamber that exists as a sort of “crystal mush” with a low percentage of fluidized magma. What would then change that into an eruptable state is an injection of hot, fresh, basalt from deep below into the asthenosphere. That then begins the process of re-melting the rhyolitic  mush and can ultimately lead to a very quick, and very enormous instability that leads to an eruption. The forces involved here are almost beyond comprehension (heat, pressure, etc). I don’t have the foggiest idea how we would realistically halt or block that process. Perhaps in much smaller systems first, but I would suggest that’s a long way away, realistically - if it’s even plausible. 

The same applies to earthquakes. Take a subduction zone where the continental slab is riding over an oceanic plate, and is slowly being bent backward building up absurd levels of strain over time. That eventually has to snap and yield a megathrust quake, how would we even conceivably stop that without shutting down plate tectonics? Plates move a couple to a few centimeters a year, and the byproduct of that movement (force by way of strain) is probably not something we could ever circumvent IMHO.