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2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

I really like the strat PV showing signs of wanting to stay on the N American side. If that is a tendency this winter it would be nice. Have not had that in several winters. Obviously I would not put too much stock into it but worth noting. 

I know you posted EURO guidance forecasting a PV split...which at this early juncture is not significant in and of itself, but it would be another feather in the hat of those arguing that the volcano is not going to pull a Pinatubo.

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14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know you posted EURO guidance forecasting a PV split...which at this early juncture is not significant in and of itself, but it would be another feather in the hat of those arguing that the volcano is not going to pull a Pinatubo.

With the atmosphere always trying to balance things out, and conventional wisdom being temps are going to be BN (PV temps) thanks to water vapor, why wouldn't that balancing process include warming eposodes (blocking) or SSW events? Just a thought.

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Poconos/Catskills getting less than I-95. LOLOLOLOLOLOL.  

You can see that happening for a particular storm, but tough to get the entire snow season to have that type of distribution... Maybe there will only be one storm for the whole season and it will be an I-95 crusher!!! Lol

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34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Whatever that guy says.. if you assume opposite .. you win . Never fails . Ask for an example.. sure last winter when he rode cold and snowy  horse till the end and the horse stomped the hell out of his head in Morch . Crushed his skull 

Lots of Beer?  
 

But ya, he’s not right all too often. And makes tons of grammatical mistakes all the time…he called autumn 2020, autumn 2002 lol. 

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8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know you posted EURO guidance forecasting a PV split...which at this early juncture is not significant in and of itself, but it would be another feather in the hat of those arguing that the volcano is not going to pull a Pinatubo.

 

GEFS Ensemble Mean splits the strat PV at 10mb & 50mb on Day 11

Screenshot_20231018-195619_Chrome.thumb.jpg.8eddef1189ebb48c3796033844f58d55.jpg

Screenshot_20231018-200044_Chrome.thumb.jpg.ed562fa9e7f12cf6983e5e3feb3209a9.jpg

 

The plot certainly thickens now. 

 

Pinatubo & Tonga were much different in what they spewed out. With Tonga being almost totally underwater it's largest effect will be the massive amounts of water vapor spewed into the atmosphere. We honestly don't know how much, what, or if any effect it might have. Some believe it may be a small contributor to the global spike this year in temps. Others disagree. 

Pinatuba spewed massive amounts of aerosols into the atmosphere that produced a massive cooling in the stratosphere that led to 6 winters of super +AO. Very few blocking episodes. 

Screenshot_20231018-210009_Chrome.thumb.jpg.a78a2c1aa8649af7c17a0c41c098748a.jpg

 

Most scientists do not expect any such effect from Tonga. 

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19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What is the significance of this…in late October? The fact that the split PV comes to our side of the globe? 

Not much except maybe a glimmer of hope that HTHH won’t deliver an +AO death knell.

Also worth noting that after a SSW (and/or Strat PV split) back in Feb, mutiple HL blocking episodes ensued for several months afterward lasting through all summer

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12 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

What is the significance of this…in late October? The fact that the split PV comes to our side of the globe? 

 

My take away is it simply weakens the PV...for now.  I will say I would rather it happen now than let's say early November. Now if occur it occurred again in a November or a December...great! 

 Now it certainly can temporarily affect the pattern. But as far as it meaning anything for winter I don't think we could say it does.

What the PV actually does has its greatest effects mid-december on whether for good or bad.

 

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42 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

My take away is it simply weakens the PV...for now.  I will say I would rather it happen now than let's say early November. Now if occur it occurred again in a November or a December...great! 

 Now it certainly can temporarily affect the pattern. But as far as it meaning anything for winter I don't think we could say it does.

What the PV actually does has its greatest effects mid-december on. 

 

We will know sooner or later for sure. Here's hoping for a -ao/nao most of the winter

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11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Whatever that guy says.. if you assume opposite .. you win . Never fails . Ask for an example.. sure last winter when he rode cold and snowy  horse till the end and the horse stomped the hell out of his head in Morch . Crushed his skull 

He bailed on last winter in mid December.

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10 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

What is the significance of this…in late October? The fact that the split PV comes to our side of the globe? 

There is a school of thought that the WV from the volcanic eruption will induce a strong PV this season, so its important to keep a close vigil on it starting in November....the early returns are confirming what I have already suspected to be the case.

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23 hours ago, George001 said:

The strength of the El Niño matters a lot. I don’t agree that it is just bad luck that 2009-2010 sucked for snow in New England. Strong/super nino and strong -NAO is a congrats DC pattern, I would take a 2018-2019 repeat over that any day.

The potential strength of El Nino can certainly trainwreck the entire winter of 23-24.  Anyone who says otherwise is doing the weather equivalent of" whistling pass the graveyard"

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18 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

I really like the strat PV showing signs of wanting to stay on the N American side. If that is a tendency this winter it would be nice. Have not had that in several winters. Obviously I would not put too much stock into it but worth noting. 

This is actually a good observation ... taking note of these less than obvious nuances in the layout is really where life plays out. 

Obviously, these observations of tendencies by Halloween do not mean they will persist through Christmas - we know that... But, in the example of the PV axis varying to either side of the pole: the telecon layouts and general numerical representations of the mass field biases et al, do not always reflect those 'giga' motions.   And, those kinds of idiosyncrasies are likelier related to why some negative(positive) index modes result in different cold(hot) temperature anomalies, despite seemingly the same. 

What happened during the 2006-2007 winter is a great example of this.  It was during the first 2-weeks of that abomination when the AO crashed almost historically. Spanning the previous 40 days the index had soared to twin towering +4+ SD anomalies lasting 10 days each, couched in a +3 SD weirdness.  When it descended, it did so in just a week's time, dropping from +4 SD to almost -2!   But, it took another 2 week+ for the cold to find its way over to our side of the hemisphere. 

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