SJonesWX Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Rhymes with Devin?? maybe Devin, but one absolutely rhymes with WauntonLizard 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 I really like the strat PV showing signs of wanting to stay on the N American side. If that is a tendency this winter it would be nice. Have not had that in several winters. Obviously I would not put too much stock into it but worth noting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2023 Author Share Posted October 18, 2023 49 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i think "reductive" is the word you're looking for. been seeing a lot of that kind of thinking this year with ENSO Yes. That- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2023 Author Share Posted October 18, 2023 39 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: maybe Devin, but one absolutely rhymes with WauntonLizard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2023 Author Share Posted October 18, 2023 1 hour ago, stadiumwave said: I really like the strat PV showing signs of wanting to stay on the N American side. If that is a tendency this winter it would be nice. Have not had that in several winters. Obviously I would not put too much stock into it but worth noting. I know you posted EURO guidance forecasting a PV split...which at this early juncture is not significant in and of itself, but it would be another feather in the hat of those arguing that the volcano is not going to pull a Pinatubo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Steve D https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2023/10/17/winter-forecast-2023-2024/?fbclid=IwAR2ksejCXNzb2KroftHNfJHLJ1VBhzXt8Rh-urj7IwECyL-RcRb_bt6XEAM 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Not that I follow BAMwx, but saw this screen grab of their winter snowfall on X... Probably not going to put smiles on the faces of snow lovers... again, this is their assessment, not mine... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Steve D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Poconos/Catskills getting less than I-95. LOLOLOLOLOLOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know you posted EURO guidance forecasting a PV split...which at this early juncture is not significant in and of itself, but it would be another feather in the hat of those arguing that the volcano is not going to pull a Pinatubo. With the atmosphere always trying to balance things out, and conventional wisdom being temps are going to be BN (PV temps) thanks to water vapor, why wouldn't that balancing process include warming eposodes (blocking) or SSW events? Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Poconos/Catskills getting less than I-95. LOLOLOLOLOLOL. We take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: We take Tossed like a suspect into your cruiser. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 What a disaster coming 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 the reverse psychology is really something else 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the reverse psychology is really something else Lol…folks just being funny and stirring the pot, trying to spur conversation, nothing more. All these outlets obviously have their own ideas…just like last year, doesn’t mean any are correct lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 DT early thoughts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Poconos/Catskills getting less than I-95. LOLOLOLOLOLOL. You can see that happening for a particular storm, but tough to get the entire snow season to have that type of distribution... Maybe there will only be one storm for the whole season and it will be an I-95 crusher!!! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 52 minutes ago, MJO812 said: DT early thoughts Whatever that guy says.. if you assume opposite .. you win . Never fails . Ask for an example.. sure last winter when he rode cold and snowy horse till the end and the horse stomped the hell out of his head in Morch . Crushed his skull 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Whatever that guy says.. if you assume opposite .. you win . Never fails . Ask for an example.. sure last winter when he rode cold and snowy horse till the end and the horse stomped the hell out of his head in Morch . Crushed his skull Lots of Beer? But ya, he’s not right all too often. And makes tons of grammatical mistakes all the time…he called autumn 2020, autumn 2002 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know you posted EURO guidance forecasting a PV split...which at this early juncture is not significant in and of itself, but it would be another feather in the hat of those arguing that the volcano is not going to pull a Pinatubo. GEFS Ensemble Mean splits the strat PV at 10mb & 50mb on Day 11 The plot certainly thickens now. Pinatubo & Tonga were much different in what they spewed out. With Tonga being almost totally underwater it's largest effect will be the massive amounts of water vapor spewed into the atmosphere. We honestly don't know how much, what, or if any effect it might have. Some believe it may be a small contributor to the global spike this year in temps. Others disagree. Pinatuba spewed massive amounts of aerosols into the atmosphere that produced a massive cooling in the stratosphere that led to 6 winters of super +AO. Very few blocking episodes. Most scientists do not expect any such effect from Tonga. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: GEFS Ensemble Mean splits the strat PV at 10mb & 50mb on Day 11 The other certainly thickens now. What is the significance of this…in late October? The fact that the split PV comes to our side of the globe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What is the significance of this…in late October? The fact that the split PV comes to our side of the globe? Not much except maybe a glimmer of hope that HTHH won’t deliver an +AO death knell. Also worth noting that after a SSW (and/or Strat PV split) back in Feb, mutiple HL blocking episodes ensued for several months afterward lasting through all summer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 12 hours ago, WinterWolf said: What is the significance of this…in late October? The fact that the split PV comes to our side of the globe? My take away is it simply weakens the PV...for now. I will say I would rather it happen now than let's say early November. Now if occur it occurred again in a November or a December...great! Now it certainly can temporarily affect the pattern. But as far as it meaning anything for winter I don't think we could say it does. What the PV actually does has its greatest effects mid-december on whether for good or bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 19 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not much except maybe a glimmer of hope that HTHH won’t deliver an +AO death knell. Also worth noting that after a SSW (and/or Strat PV split) back in Feb, mutiple HL blocking episodes ensued for several months afterward lasting through all summer HTHH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 42 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: My take away is it simply weakens the PV...for now. I will say I would rather it happen now than let's say early November. Now if occur it occurred again in a November or a December...great! Now it certainly can temporarily affect the pattern. But as far as it meaning anything for winter I don't think we could say it does. What the PV actually does has its greatest effects mid-december on. We will know sooner or later for sure. Here's hoping for a -ao/nao most of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: HTHH? Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2023 Author Share Posted October 19, 2023 11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Whatever that guy says.. if you assume opposite .. you win . Never fails . Ask for an example.. sure last winter when he rode cold and snowy horse till the end and the horse stomped the hell out of his head in Morch . Crushed his skull He bailed on last winter in mid December. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2023 Author Share Posted October 19, 2023 10 hours ago, WinterWolf said: What is the significance of this…in late October? The fact that the split PV comes to our side of the globe? There is a school of thought that the WV from the volcanic eruption will induce a strong PV this season, so its important to keep a close vigil on it starting in November....the early returns are confirming what I have already suspected to be the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 23 hours ago, George001 said: The strength of the El Niño matters a lot. I don’t agree that it is just bad luck that 2009-2010 sucked for snow in New England. Strong/super nino and strong -NAO is a congrats DC pattern, I would take a 2018-2019 repeat over that any day. The potential strength of El Nino can certainly trainwreck the entire winter of 23-24. Anyone who says otherwise is doing the weather equivalent of" whistling pass the graveyard" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 18 hours ago, stadiumwave said: I really like the strat PV showing signs of wanting to stay on the N American side. If that is a tendency this winter it would be nice. Have not had that in several winters. Obviously I would not put too much stock into it but worth noting. This is actually a good observation ... taking note of these less than obvious nuances in the layout is really where life plays out. Obviously, these observations of tendencies by Halloween do not mean they will persist through Christmas - we know that... But, in the example of the PV axis varying to either side of the pole: the telecon layouts and general numerical representations of the mass field biases et al, do not always reflect those 'giga' motions. And, those kinds of idiosyncrasies are likelier related to why some negative(positive) index modes result in different cold(hot) temperature anomalies, despite seemingly the same. What happened during the 2006-2007 winter is a great example of this. It was during the first 2-weeks of that abomination when the AO crashed almost historically. Spanning the previous 40 days the index had soared to twin towering +4+ SD anomalies lasting 10 days each, couched in a +3 SD weirdness. When it descended, it did so in just a week's time, dropping from +4 SD to almost -2! But, it took another 2 week+ for the cold to find its way over to our side of the hemisphere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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