MJO812 Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 Someone post the CFS Monthlies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted August 27, 2023 Share Posted August 27, 2023 6 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said: Preliminary Analysis of the Polar Landscape for Boreal Winter 2023-2024 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1 Perhaps, now people do understand. First you see Polar landscape, the second is extratropical which contains much more than polar. So the description of the link and what you get is not the same. Who cares, it's an article and its title. Perhaps articles should include footnotes of definitions for every single word used too. "He said blue, but it's actually aquamarine". I don't understand the significance of the complaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2023 Author Share Posted August 28, 2023 7 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said: Preliminary Analysis of the Polar Landscape for Boreal Winter 2023-2024 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1 Perhaps, now people do understand. First you see Polar landscape, the second is extratropical which contains much more than polar. So the description of the link and what you get is not the same. Yea, extratropical refers to much more than polar. I see what you meant earlier, maybe I posed an incorrect link. This one works. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/august-enso-update-potential.html?m=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2023 Author Share Posted August 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said: Who cares, it's an article and its title. Perhaps articles should include footnotes of definitions for every single word used too. "He said blue, but it's actually aquamarine". I don't understand the significance of the complaint One of the links I posted connected to the polar blog entry, rather than the extra tropical Pacific, as advertised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sebastiaan1973 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, extratropical refers to much more than polar. I see what you meant earlier, maybe I posed an incorrect link. This one works. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/august-enso-update-potential.html?m=1 Thanks Ray, this solves the problem. I asked this, not just for me, but I share the link for the weather freaks on the other side of the Atlantic 10 hours ago, Henry's Weather said: Who cares, it's an article and its title. Perhaps articles should include footnotes of definitions for every single word used too. "He said blue, but it's actually aquamarine". I don't understand the significance of the complaint Fortunately Ray does understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 Winter of 1995-96? Good analog? Winter 2016-2017? Good analog? Winter 2002-2003? Outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 The primary analogs for the winter of 2024: Key factors: Enso state: El Niño Enso strength: Super Polar region: unknown, but lean is +NAO due to the increasing solar activity and recent volcanic activity. Pacific region: This is developing like an “old school” nino, starts in the east and moves west over time. The flip side of this is the nino will likely peak earlier in the eastern regions, and later in the western regions. I am leaning towards the peak being “too late” for eastern snow lovers, but the possibility of an earlier than expected peak needs to be watched. The PDO is expected to stay negative, but the region is rapidly warming. It likely averages in the neutral/slightly negative range, but could reach that via a moderate negative anomaly in Dec, slightly negative anomaly in Jan, and slightly positive in Feb and Mar. Atlantic region: SSTs are warmer than average. Top analogs: 1972-1973, 1991-1992, 2015-2016, 1997-1998, 1925-1926. decent analogs: 1957-1958, 2009-2010, 1991-1992, 2019-2020 The best analog right now is 72-73, a classical east based (EP) El Niño coming off a La Niña, super peak, averaged -PDO for DJF. Polar region was a strong +NAO, which I believe this winter has a higher probability than usual for due to the unusual volcanic activity and solar activity. That is why I like 1991-1992, that winter was less driven by ENSO than I think this one will be (strong, not super), but it was a strong +NAO winter, which has been blamed on the extreme volcanic activity (Pinataubo eruption). This also was linked to the raging +NAO the following winters (1992-1993 and 1993-1994 were strong +NAO winters). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 On 8/28/2023 at 12:18 PM, George001 said: The primary analogs for the winter of 2024: Key factors: Enso state: El Niño Enso strength: Super Polar region: unknown, but lean is +NAO due to the increasing solar activity and recent volcanic activity. Pacific region: This is developing like an “old school” nino, starts in the east and moves west over time. The flip side of this is the nino will likely peak earlier in the eastern regions, and later in the western regions. I am leaning towards the peak being “too late” for eastern snow lovers, but the possibility of an earlier than expected peak needs to be watched. The PDO is expected to stay negative, but the region is rapidly warming. It likely averages in the neutral/slightly negative range, but could reach that via a moderate negative anomaly in Dec, slightly negative anomaly in Jan, and slightly positive in Feb and Mar. Atlantic region: SSTs are warmer than average. Top analogs: 1972-1973, 1991-1992, 2015-2016, 1997-1998, 1925-1926. decent analogs: 1957-1958, 2009-2010, 1991-1992, 2019-2020 The best analog right now is 72-73, a classical east based (EP) El Niño coming off a La Niña, super peak, averaged -PDO for DJF. Polar region was a strong +NAO, which I believe this winter has a higher probability than usual for due to the unusual volcanic activity and solar activity. That is why I like 1991-1992, that winter was less driven by ENSO than I think this one will be (strong, not super), but it was a strong +NAO winter, which has been blamed on the extreme volcanic activity (Pinataubo eruption). This also was linked to the raging +NAO the following winters (1992-1993 and 1993-1994 were strong +NAO winters). I would be shocked if this winter averaged out with a strong -NAO given the -QBO and the propensity for Ninos to have periods of blocking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 10 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said: Thanks Ray, this solves the problem. I asked this, not just for me, but I share the link for the weather freaks on the other side of the Atlantic Fortunately Ray does understand. Sorry, I missed the point I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 28, 2023 Share Posted August 28, 2023 5 hours ago, Henry's Weather said: Sorry, I missed the point I think Ya, I was lost trying to read some of that stuff…I don’t know what it was really trying to say Lol. I’ll leave it to the guys in the know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 On 8/27/2023 at 2:12 AM, SnoSki14 said: I definitely can't see worse. Only 2" in NJ so it can only go up from here Agreed. .9" for me in southern Pa.... yes, you read that correctly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Agreed. .9" for me in southern Pa.... yes, you read that correctly. That has to be near record territory. You're not even right near Philly....inland north of Lancaster seems like getting less than an inch is record material....I wonder how much they got in '72-'73 or '97-'98. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That has to be near record territory. You're not even right near Philly....inland north of Lancaster seems like getting less than an inch is record material....I wonder how much they got in '72-'73 or '97-'98. Yes…I’d be interested in knowing that answer too? Wow, under an inch for the whole winter season…that’s impressive. Man, I thought we had it bad last winter here with 12+ inches(which is horrible too), but under an inch is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 OFA winter forecast is out. lol https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 19 minutes ago, dendrite said: OFA winter forecast is out. lol https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac I'm not sure I've ever seen that agency publish a legendary fresco that didn't feature some peregrination of just exactly what the kielbasas want to savor over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2023 Author Share Posted August 29, 2023 22 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: I would be shocked if this winter averaged out with a strong -QBO given the -PDO and the propensity for Ninos to have periods of blocking His rationale is all bogus...the volcano is a convenient excuse, but its not impacting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: His rationale is all bogus...the volcano is a convenient excuse, but its not impacting us. There is evidence suggesting that the Pinatubo eruption was linked to the strongly positive NAO winters of 91-92, 92-93, and 93-94. Other factors are unknown (Siberian snowcover, etc), but the known factors right now favor a strongly positive NAO. The solar correlation is weaker, but the correlation between the solar cycle peak and the NAO is a positive one, especially during Feb. Is a negative NAO possible? Of course, but right now, strongly a strongly positive NAO is favored. The last time we had a solar peak was I believe was the 2014-2015 timeframe. A possible wrinkle is that this solar cycle isn’t as strong as that one was, but the correlation worked well then with Feb 2015 being a strongly +NAO month. Sure, a negative NAO is possible. Maybe I am overlooking something that I didn’t even consider that is a stronger driver than either of those things (solar and volcano). It’s possible, but right now I am leaning towards a strongly positive NAO winter (especially Feb). If I’m wrong, I’ll own up to it and admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, George001 said: There is evidence suggesting that the Pinatubo eruption was linked to the strongly positive NAO winters of 91-92, 92-93, and 93-94. Other factors are unknown (Siberian snowcover, etc), but the known factors right now favor a strongly positive NAO. The solar correlation is weaker, but the correlation between the solar cycle peak and the NAO is a positive one, especially during Feb. Is a negative NAO possible? Of course, but right now, strongly a strongly positive NAO is favored. The last time we had a solar peak was I believe was the 2014-2015 timeframe. A possible wrinkle is that this solar cycle isn’t as strong as that one was, but the correlation worked well then with Feb 2015 being a strongly +NAO month. the Pinatubo eruption was much stronger and in the NH, shooting SO2 into the atmosphere... this one is weaker, in the SH, and shot water vapor into the atmosphere. they're different the -QBO favors blocking, the strong Nino itself favors blocking, and solar research is out. some say the ascending solar favors blocking, some say it doesn't. but overall, solar and the eruption are dubious at best, and the -QBO and Nino are known to be blockier so to say that a strongly positive +NAO is favored is a bit much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 @George001 they just aren't the same. most of the vapor went into the ocean, not the atmosphere, while Pinatubo had most of its SO2 go far into the atmosphere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2023 Author Share Posted August 29, 2023 57 minutes ago, George001 said: There is evidence suggesting that the Pinatubo eruption was linked to the strongly positive NAO winters of 91-92, 92-93, and 93-94. Other factors are unknown (Siberian snowcover, etc), but the known factors right now favor a strongly positive NAO. The solar correlation is weaker, but the correlation between the solar cycle peak and the NAO is a positive one, especially during Feb. Is a negative NAO possible? Of course, but right now, strongly a strongly positive NAO is favored. The last time we had a solar peak was I believe was the 2014-2015 timeframe. A possible wrinkle is that this solar cycle isn’t as strong as that one was, but the correlation worked well then with Feb 2015 being a strongly +NAO month. Sure, a negative NAO is possible. Maybe I am overlooking something that I didn’t even consider that is a stronger driver than either of those things (solar and volcano). It’s possible, but right now I am leaning towards a strongly positive NAO winter (especially Feb). If I’m wrong, I’ll own up to it and admit it. You need to actually read up on the volcanic implications if you are going to use it. Yes, it seems like it played a role in the strong PV that season, but that eruption was different on that it released a ton of SO2. This one was all water vapor. Pinatubo also had a drastic effect the very next winter....last season was a near neutral NAO in the mean (slightly positive) with two major episodes of blocking. There is not much of a signal for solar max....however, ascending solar is linked to negative NAO and descending is linked to +. We are still ascending. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You need to actually read up on the volcanic implications if you are going to use it. Yes, it seems like it played a role in the strong PV that season, but that eruption was different on that it released a ton of SO2. This one was all water vapor. Pinatubo also had a drastic effect the very next winter....last season was a near neutral NAO in the mean (slightly positive) with two major episodes of blocking. There is not much of a signal for solar max....however, ascending solar is linked to negative NAO and descending is linked to +. We are still ascending. Yeah…Pinatubo was the most climate-altering eruption since probably Tambora in 1815. The 1912 eruption in Alaska was bigger but not in the best spot to affect the global climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Last year seemed way above normal snowfall wise compared to what I'm use to lol hoping for another fun year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 4 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Last year seemed way above normal snowfall wise compared to what I'm use to lol hoping for another fun year Last year was a great winter……. for Torch Tiger. Hopefully this winter is colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 20 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not sure I've ever seen that agency publish a legendary fresco that didn't feature some peregrination of just exactly what the kielbasas want to savor over SO true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 Cansips looks great for winter. It nailed last winter in August lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 Please erase last winter from my memory. Thanks. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Please erase last winter from my memory. Thanks. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Please erase last winter from my memory. Thanks. this will do just that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 how does the pacific side look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 1 minute ago, ma blizzard said: how does the pacific side look? not sure yet. it's going to come out on TT this evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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