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2023-2024 Winter/ENSO Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

One thing I noticed in the weekly cpc enso updates is that their model sst forecast graphics have consistently showed the WPAC cooling into the autumn, and then warming back up into the winter months. 

If it pans out like this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see VP/forcing migrate to the east into fall (watch the forum write this winter off as another ratter)… and then migrate back west. Could mean a torchy first half with an interesting second backloaded half. 

That would loosely fit with winters like '57-'58 and '65-'66.

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6 hours ago, Terpeast said:

One thing I noticed in the weekly cpc enso updates is that their model sst forecast graphics have consistently showed the WPAC cooling into the autumn, and then warming back up into the winter months. 

If it pans out like this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see VP/forcing migrate to the east into fall (watch the forum write this winter off as another ratter)… and then migrate back west. Could mean a torchy first half with an interesting second backloaded half. 

God I hope not. I’m so sick of backended winters. We are going on 14 years since the last white Christmas here.

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5 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

God I hope not. I’m so sick of backended winters. We are going on 14 years since the last white Christmas here.

For it to not be backloaded, the forcing would have to stay west. Like where it is now, and stay there for the next 7 months

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24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Aug 2023Aug 2023

 

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

IDK, everyone has an opinion....and I know that the smart money is always on above normal to some degree in this modern era, but this doesn't signal "game over" to me.

It looks like December is kind of eh......then shit hits the fan in January into February, which lines up with what I am coming up with independently.

 

Dec 2023 (T+2952)

 

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't give a rat's a$$ what the ONI is or which ENSO region is warmest, blah, blah...that is a textbook modoki pattern. That GOA low is flat and displaced well off of the coast with a downstream split flow pumping in moisture beneath a very disturbed polar region. I'm not sure I even detect much of a gradient issue on that chart, so it appears to be an impactful storm factory. You can write a novel about the IOD and wax poetic about whichever other esoteric index fits your agenda, but there is only one way to interpret these seasonal charts if the reader has a modicum of:

A: Objectivity

B: Meteorological intellect

 

Now, will they verify...who knows, but what I can tell you is these solutions make sense since the west PAC is so anomalously warm. We have a quite a seasonal consensus that is getting more difficult to dismiss by the week.

 

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Tweet from HM We have seen a reflecting kelvin wave and off equator Rossby progress westward over the last few weeks. This has actually flipped the current. It's not strong enough to collapse the event, but it will help to continue to expand the warmth west and poleward. 

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23 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Tweet from HM We have seen a reflecting kelvin wave and off equator Rossby progress westward over the last few weeks. This has actually flipped the current. It's not strong enough to collapse the event, but it will help to continue to expand the warmth west and poleward. 

That sounds like some good news for us…

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wiz? Ray Ray I don't remember who wanted it but finally found EPO by month

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/epnp_index.tim

That dataset has been around for years....and they haven't fixed December yet. Every December reading is corrupted as -99.9

The other months are good though....one caveat on this dataset though is that the EP/NP has the opposite sign of the traditional EPO index. So a positive EP/NP here means a negative EPO (i.e, check those frigid months like Jan 1994 and Feb 2015 which had huge -EPOs....they are huge positive numbers on this dataset). So just as long as people remember that when looking at the values.

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That dataset has been around for years....and they haven't fixed December yet. Every December reading is corrupted as -99.9

The other months are good though....one caveat on this dataset though is that the EP/NP has the opposite sign of the traditional EPO index. So a positive EP/NP here means a negative EPO (i.e, check those frigid months like Jan 1994 and Feb 2015 which had huge -EPOs....they are huge positive numbers on this dataset). So just as long as people remember that when looking at the values.

Yes positive in the DB means negative EPO

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50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That dataset has been around for years....and they haven't fixed December yet. Every December reading is corrupted as -99.9

The other months are good though....one caveat on this dataset though is that the EP/NP has the opposite sign of the traditional EPO index. So a positive EP/NP here means a negative EPO (i.e, check those frigid months like Jan 1994 and Feb 2015 which had huge -EPOs....they are huge positive numbers on this dataset). So just as long as people remember that when looking at the values.

Yes, that is how I use it.

I don't understand why they don't fix the December data...absolutely drives me insane....do that with a month no one cares about, like September or April.

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wiz? Ray Ray I don't remember who wanted it but finally found EPO by month

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/epnp_index.tim

I have been using this site, but same data....just diffferent presentation.

psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/epo.data

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