ORH_wxman Posted August 11, 2023 Share Posted August 11, 2023 14 minutes ago, Terpeast said: One thing I noticed in the weekly cpc enso updates is that their model sst forecast graphics have consistently showed the WPAC cooling into the autumn, and then warming back up into the winter months. If it pans out like this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see VP/forcing migrate to the east into fall (watch the forum write this winter off as another ratter)… and then migrate back west. Could mean a torchy first half with an interesting second backloaded half. That would loosely fit with winters like '57-'58 and '65-'66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 11, 2023 Author Share Posted August 11, 2023 9 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: That would loosely fit with winters like '57-'58 and '65-'66. Or a mid-winter bang, a la 1987. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 11, 2023 Share Posted August 11, 2023 6 hours ago, Terpeast said: One thing I noticed in the weekly cpc enso updates is that their model sst forecast graphics have consistently showed the WPAC cooling into the autumn, and then warming back up into the winter months. If it pans out like this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see VP/forcing migrate to the east into fall (watch the forum write this winter off as another ratter)… and then migrate back west. Could mean a torchy first half with an interesting second backloaded half. God I hope not. I’m so sick of backended winters. We are going on 14 years since the last white Christmas here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2023 Share Posted August 11, 2023 53 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: God I hope not. I’m so sick of backended winters. We are going on 14 years since the last white Christmas here. Ninos are usually later to start near the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 11, 2023 Author Share Posted August 11, 2023 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Ninos are usually later to start near the coast. 2009 was the last one that didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 11, 2023 Share Posted August 11, 2023 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 2009 was the last one that didn't. Yep. Big December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 5 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: God I hope not. I’m so sick of backended winters. We are going on 14 years since the last white Christmas here. For it to not be backloaded, the forcing would have to stay west. Like where it is now, and stay there for the next 7 months 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 12, 2023 Author Share Posted August 12, 2023 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1 Great writeup @40/70 Benchmark. Just one little nitpicky thing - you used a temp graph from 2007-08 when talking about 2006-07. Might want to swap them out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 12, 2023 Author Share Posted August 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Great writeup @40/70 Benchmark. Just one little nitpicky thing - you used a temp graph from 2007-08 when talking about 2006-07. Might want to swap them out. Good catch. Thank you...will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1 This is great stuff, thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 Does the tropical season figure into LR forecasts, or is any attempt to correlate the two sheer voodoo? This map is really remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 3 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Does the tropical season figure into LR forecasts, or is any attempt to correlate the two sheer voodoo? This map is really remarkable. Tropics will turn on a dime after August 20th as they always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 17, 2023 Author Share Posted August 17, 2023 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: IDK, everyone has an opinion....and I know that the smart money is always on above normal to some degree in this modern era, but this doesn't signal "game over" to me. It looks like December is kind of eh......then shit hits the fan in January into February, which lines up with what I am coming up with independently. 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't give a rat's a$$ what the ONI is or which ENSO region is warmest, blah, blah...that is a textbook modoki pattern. That GOA low is flat and displaced well off of the coast with a downstream split flow pumping in moisture beneath a very disturbed polar region. I'm not sure I even detect much of a gradient issue on that chart, so it appears to be an impactful storm factory. You can write a novel about the IOD and wax poetic about whichever other esoteric index fits your agenda, but there is only one way to interpret these seasonal charts if the reader has a modicum of: A: Objectivity B: Meteorological intellect Now, will they verify...who knows, but what I can tell you is these solutions make sense since the west PAC is so anomalously warm. We have a quite a seasonal consensus that is getting more difficult to dismiss by the week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 In the most recent IRI update, the mean for the dynamical guidance increased from +1.809 (strong) to +2.06 (super). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Tweet from HM We have seen a reflecting kelvin wave and off equator Rossby progress westward over the last few weeks. This has actually flipped the current. It's not strong enough to collapse the event, but it will help to continue to expand the warmth west and poleward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 23 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: Tweet from HM We have seen a reflecting kelvin wave and off equator Rossby progress westward over the last few weeks. This has actually flipped the current. It's not strong enough to collapse the event, but it will help to continue to expand the warmth west and poleward. That sounds like some good news for us… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2023 Author Share Posted August 22, 2023 58 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That sounds like some good news for us… Not a big deal IMO...the event had to move westward if el nino were to flourish, as 3.4 is the main indicator. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Anyone know how the depth of anomalies compares to say 1997, 2010, 2015 at this time? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Anyone know how the depth of anomalies compares to say 1997, 2010, 2015 at this time? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml Haven't had much time to dig deep, but seen some discussions that they are a bit shallower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 2 hours ago, FXWX said: Haven't had much time to dig deep, but seen some discussions that they are a bit shallower. Second animation, thermocline appears to be pushing up in 1+2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/11/2023 at 11:37 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1 Good stuff! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Wiz? Ray Ray I don't remember who wanted it but finally found EPO by month https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/epnp_index.tim 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Wiz? Ray Ray I don't remember who wanted it but finally found EPO by month https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/epnp_index.tim That dataset has been around for years....and they haven't fixed December yet. Every December reading is corrupted as -99.9 The other months are good though....one caveat on this dataset though is that the EP/NP has the opposite sign of the traditional EPO index. So a positive EP/NP here means a negative EPO (i.e, check those frigid months like Jan 1994 and Feb 2015 which had huge -EPOs....they are huge positive numbers on this dataset). So just as long as people remember that when looking at the values. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That dataset has been around for years....and they haven't fixed December yet. Every December reading is corrupted as -99.9 The other months are good though....one caveat on this dataset though is that the EP/NP has the opposite sign of the traditional EPO index. So a positive EP/NP here means a negative EPO (i.e, check those frigid months like Jan 1994 and Feb 2015 which had huge -EPOs....they are huge positive numbers on this dataset). So just as long as people remember that when looking at the values. Yes positive in the DB means negative EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2023 Author Share Posted August 24, 2023 50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That dataset has been around for years....and they haven't fixed December yet. Every December reading is corrupted as -99.9 The other months are good though....one caveat on this dataset though is that the EP/NP has the opposite sign of the traditional EPO index. So a positive EP/NP here means a negative EPO (i.e, check those frigid months like Jan 1994 and Feb 2015 which had huge -EPOs....they are huge positive numbers on this dataset). So just as long as people remember that when looking at the values. Yes, that is how I use it. I don't understand why they don't fix the December data...absolutely drives me insane....do that with a month no one cares about, like September or April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2023 Author Share Posted August 24, 2023 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Wiz? Ray Ray I don't remember who wanted it but finally found EPO by month https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/epnp_index.tim I have been using this site, but same data....just diffferent presentation. psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/epo.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24, 2023 Author Share Posted August 24, 2023 August ENSO Update & Potential Extratropical Pacific Analogs for Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: August ENSO Update & Potential Extratropical Pacific Analogs for Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather Does Dec to March mean say 52/53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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