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March 3-4 Potential Winter Storm

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

Glad to be a part of the discussion Here's some items I've noted: - Anomalously deep surface low for a relatively far south latitude is pretty much a lock with the plotted EPS members all stronger

RCNYILWX
RCNYILWX

The 18z EPS, while another shift northwest, still nicely shows the range of plausible outcomes for the heavy snow swath. There's roughly 3 camps and the swaths have a similar west southwest to east no

OHweather
OHweather

This is disappointing for Chicago and surrounding areas (while it's still close for the southern suburbs, it will be an extremely sharp western/northwestern cut-off) but for those that cash in, this w

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, Lightning said:

I can agree for South of M59 corridor but not for M59 and northward.  Christmas 2013, April 2003 just to name a few (there were a couple others in the 70s/80s).  

This was my worst since 2002. I had lighter glazing in the 2 you mentioned and i remember the disaster that Apr 2003 was to the north. BUT I think DTE means this is the worst widespread storm. The heart of the metro area was creamed with ice and more people = more outages. 

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mollydog

mollydog

Posted
Posted
I can agree for South of M59 corridor but not for M59 and northward.  Christmas 2013, April 2003 just to name a few (there were a couple others in the 70s/80s).  

Still no power from Wednesday! Today looks identical…. Really hoping for snow on Friday. I can’t do this ice thing anymore!


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Lightning

Lightning

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This was my worst since 2002. I had lighter glazing in the 2 you mentioned and i remember the disaster that Apr 2003 was to the north. BUT I think DTE means this is the worst widespread storm. The heart of the metro area was creamed with ice and more people = more outages. 

Also DTE doe not have everyone north of M59.  Consumer Energy also has some of the territory.  Like my neighbors literally across the street are full CE while I am DTE electric but I have CE natural gas.  So I am sure they are talking their service area more than anything else :lol:

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

Posted
Posted
You really are the best man. What's your take on this whole situation as of now?
Glad to be a part of the discussion

Here's some items I've noted:

- Anomalously deep surface low for a relatively far south latitude is pretty much a lock with the plotted EPS members all stronger than the 982 mb mean on the IL/IN border at 18z Friday

- Bowling ball nature of the 500 mb low supports the idea that the track can be unusually far south for a system of this nature, in the presence of a strong downstream -NAO block. Another late season example of this was the late March 2013 snowstorm that brought record snow to SPI.

- The downstream -NAO block is the key to the setup of here and points south still being in the game.

- The general idea or trend of 12z suite today of deeper and farther north track also makes sense given the very strong and dynamic 500 mb low/PV anomaly, which can be expected to help pump downstream heights in the northeast a bit.

If you look at 500 mb height anomalies, there's positive east of here and negative over Canadian Maritimes trapped under the block, and that'll be the impetus for our primary bowling ball wave to track east northeast and weaken instead of a sharper northeast or north-northeastward track.

The presence of the NAO block merely gives us a chance that things could work out. It's a delicate balance with respect to the strength of the synoptic system and "feeling" the downstream block. The warmer and farther north solutions on the EPS and the GFS/GEFS are on the table, though I do think there's only so far north it can go.

I'm concerned about a miss just north for us with the heavy snow swath because there will be a tremendous amount of latent heat release to help height rises east of here, and that may overcome downstream blocking to an extent, especially if the block trends a bit weaker.

Edit: With 12z EPS 500 mb heights and anomalies valid 12z Friday.

a76f4a18c0666b09bc708fb083d97e3f.jpg
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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Yeah.  I have seen enough ZR/PL for one season.  ;)

I am hoping this next storm is snow too.  :snowing:

If I had to pick a worse poison between ZR and PL, it would definitely be ZR. It's really a marginal pick though, because they're both quite awful in their own ways.

I've had the pleasure of experiencing 12+ hours of non-stop sleet, but I pray I'll never have to experience a significant ice storm (DFW fortunately dodged a bullet with the system back in late January / early February).

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Also DTE doe not have everyone north of M59.  Consumer Energy also has some of the territory.  Like my neighbors literally across the street are full CE while I am DTE electric but I have CE natural gas.  So I am sure they are talking their service area more than anything else :lol:

Yes that's what they meant, their service area. Wyandotte has their own electric too so didn't have to wait for DTE here lol.

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Frog Town

Frog Town

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Glad to be a part of the discussion

Here's some items I've noted:

- Anomalously deep surface low for a relatively far south latitude is pretty much a lock with the plotted EPS members all stronger than the 982 mb mean on the IL/IN border at 18z Friday

- Bowling ball nature of the 500 mb low supports the idea that the track can be unusually far south for a system of this nature, in the presence of a strong downstream -NAO block. Another late season example of this was the late March 2013 snowstorm that brought record snow to SPI.

- The downstream -NAO block is the key to the setup of here and points south still being in the game.

- The general idea or trend of 12z suite today of deeper and farther north track also makes sense given the very strong and dynamic 500 mb low/PV anomaly, which can be expected to help pump downstream heights in the northeast a bit.

If you look at 500 mb height anomalies, there's positive east of here and negative over Canadian Maritimes trapped under the block, and that'll be the impetus for our primary bowling ball wave to track east northeast and weaken instead of a sharper northeast or north-northeastward track.

The presence of the NAO block merely gives us a chance that things could work out. It's a delicate balance with respect to the strength of the synoptic system and "feeling" the downstream block. The warmer and farther north solutions on the EPS and the GFS/GEFS are on the table, though I do think there's only so far north it can go.

I'm concerned about a miss just north for us with the heavy snow swath because there will be a tremendous amount of latent heat release to help height rises east of here, and that may overcome downstream blocking to an extent, especially if the block trends a bit weaker.

Edit: With 12z EPS 500 mb heights and anomalies valid 12z Friday.

a76f4a18c0666b09bc708fb083d97e3f.jpg

You are awesome for sharing your craft with us in a way that is priceless to wienies like us.  Thank you!

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Lightning

Lightning

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Powerball said:

If I had to pick a worse poison between ZR and PL, it would definitely be ZR. It's really a marginal pick though, because they're both quite awful in their own ways.

I've had the pleasure of experiencing 12+ hours of non-stop sleet, but I pray I'll never have to experience a significant ice storm (DFW fortunately dodged a bullet with the system back in late January / early February).

ZR = extremely pretty but damage and power outages likely.  PL = not pretty at all but no damage or power outages.  

From a pure weather event enjoyment stand point I would take the ZR ice storm every time.  The damage and power outage just make an ice storm an event one I both love and hate.

In the end my pick ... snow!! :lmao:

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Ice storm for DTW

 

5 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Please god no not again 

 

5 hours ago, Natester said:

Yeah, Michigan doesn't need another ice storm after just 9 days.

I am legit concerned this could be the outcome, I hope it isn't. Hell I would take 33 and rain over ice at this point. A repeat of today would be fine, we are at 1.17 liquid almost all of it rain.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Powerball said:

If I had to pick a worse poison between ZR and PL, it would definitely be ZR. It's really a marginal pick though, because they're both quite awful in their own ways.

I've had the pleasure of experiencing 12+ hours of non-stop sleet, but I pray I'll never have to experience a significant ice storm (DFW fortunately dodged a bullet with the system back in late January / early February).

The scenes we saw last week after the ice storm were incredible. The beauty of an ice storm is jaw dropping. But it also comes with inconvenience, destruction, and hundreds of thousands of people being without power in Winter. So many people losing trees that they probably loved for a day of beauty would definitely not be worth it. Sleet is as boring as you can get but at least at the end of the day it looks like snow and it's harder to melt. 

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

 

 

I am legit concerned this could be the outcome, I hope it isn't. Hell I would take 33 and rain over ice at this point. A repeat of today would be fine, we are at 1.17 liquid almost all of it rain.

There was a coating of sleet and a bit of glaze earlier but it's been mostly cold gross rain. 

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Lightning said:

ZR = extremely pretty but damage and power outages likely.  PL = not pretty at all but no damage or power outages.  

From a pure weather event enjoyment stand point I would take the ZR ice storm every time.  The damage and power outage just make an ice storm an event one I both love and hate.

In the end my pick ... snow!! :lmao:

Yeah, I'd easily take snow over the ZR/PL too, lol...

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