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March 3-4 Potential Winter Storm


Hoosier
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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I had been going with gusts up to 60MPH being likely (Didn't want to go all in on the hi-res' higher end depictions alone). But yea, a lot of downstate IL NWS offices were more conservative and only suggesting gusts up to 50MPH, which was quite surprising.

With it happening widespread in real-time now, any that haven't jumped onboard yet...it's a lost cause.

I wouldn't have bet money on the 70mph gusts in IL on the north side of the low ahead of time either, but throwing out 50mph and hoping that holds when there was a pretty coherent hi-res signal for at least 60mph (with the HRRR consistently advertising the potential for 70+ exactly where it happened) is pretty blegh given the borderline rapid deepening and very anomalously low MSLP values...that were fairly well-advertised. 

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8 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

 

This is great. Won’t get true big dog totals, but this event will help me raise my winter grade from a F to a D- :lol:

Big gust of wind just rolled through here.

Piling up fast, couple more hours of this would be fun

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4 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Kind of disappointed that we haven't got a heavy snow MD from the SPC (yet).

I've seen them written up for much wimpier events...

Guessing it's mainly because their focus is on the severe wx in the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys as opposed to not expecting this/not thinking it's worth an MD. 

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Just now, OHweather said:

Guessing it's mainly because their focus is on the severe wx in the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys as opposed to not expecting this/not thinking it's worth an MD. 

Oh yes, I'm sure that's the case.

That's why I changed the wording in my original post from annoyed to disappointed, lol.

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Have already had multiple upper 50 gusts here, and it looks to continue, maybe even topping 60 in next few hours. I haven't checked my CoCoRaHS gauge, screw that, it's too nasty out there, but guessing that we are pushing an inch and half of rain with at least another half to 3/4s incoming.

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Just now, IWXwx said:

Have already had multiple upper 50 gusts here, and it looks to continue, maybe even topping 60 in next few hours. I haven't checked my CoCoRaHS gauge, screw that, it's too nasty out there, but guessing that we are pushing an inch and half of rain with at least another half to 3/4s incoming.

Yeah I went out around noon to look and it was worse than a 50mph blizzard lol. I'm guessing 2.5 in my guage, Im not going back out unless it warms up. KIND is saying winds should increase until about 10pm now.  58 highest gust here so far 980mb pressure.  I want 979 dambit! lol

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22 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Kind of disappointed that we haven't got a heavy snow MD from the SPC (yet).

I've seen them written up for much wimpier events...

Literally was just thinking that. Kind of puzzled. Pretty impressive event with heavy snow rates, high winds, convective snow, and very deep low pressure. 

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There it is!!!

Mesoscale Discussion 0251
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0425 PM CST Fri Mar 03 2023

   Areas affected...Northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 032225Z - 040230Z

   SUMMARY...Strong ascent across the northern Indiana and southern
   Lower Michigan region, coupled with areas of freezing temperatures
   at the surface, will support pockets of heavy snowfall rates through
   mid evening.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a handful of surface
   observations from far northeast IL, northern IN, and southern Lower
   MI have reported moderate to heavy snowfall with visibility at or
   below 1/4 mile at times. Such conditions have largely been contained
   to areas where surface temperatures have experienced strong
   evaporative cooling and fallen into the 30-32 F range. Many
   locations that are currently above freezing are reporting dewpoint
   values in the low 30s, suggesting that additional low-level
   evaporative cooling to freezing is possible over the next few hours
   - especially under areas of heavier precipitation. Aloft, strong
   isentropic ascent through the 925-700 mb layer will be augmented by
   a mid-level deformation zone to the north of the synoptic low. This
   ascent is expected to persist through the late afternoon/evening
   hours as a strong cyclone lifts to the northeast, and may promote
   periods of organized snow banding. Furthermore, periodic lightning
   flashes suggest adequate buoyancy exists over the region to support
   localized bursts of heavier snow. Consequently, snowfall rates up to
   2 inches/hour (possibly as high as 3 inches/hour) will be possible
   where low-level temperatures are below freezing.

   ..Moore.. 03/03/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41628718 42038637 42928415 42998357 42788274 42228266
               41788283 41538366 41278489 40808668 40778722 40858757
               41318760 41628718 
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